The U.S. is bracing for a record grain harvest totaling 21.5 billion bushels of corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum this fall. The bumper crop arrives during a period of heightened uncertainty surrounding the future of the U.S.-China trade relationship. It all means grain storage and transportation logistics will be much more complicated than usual. 

CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange said grain storage space will be extraordinarily tight this fall, with grain merchandisers charging higher fees due to limited capacity and strained infrastructure. While grain elevators stand to benefit from buying cheaper basis and capturing wider carries in the futures markets, the profit opportunities aren’t risk-free. “Among the top 12 corn-producing states, the U.S. is facing a 1.4-billion-bushel shortage of upright grain storage this year, with elevators relying on bunkers and ground piles.” This year’s shortage is in stark contrast to last year, when the top corn-producing states had 361 million bushels of excess storage.

The U.S. is bracing for a record grain harvest totaling 21.5 billion bushels of corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum this fall. The bumper crop arrives during a period of heightened uncertainty surrounding the future of the U.S.-China trade relationship. It all means grain storage and transportation logistics will be much more complicated than usual. CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange said grain storage space will be extraordinarily tight this fall, with grain merchandisers charging higher fees due to limited capacity and strained infrastructure. While grain elevators stand to benefit from buying cheaper basis and capturing wider carries in the futures markets, the profit opportunities aren’t risk-free. “Among the top 12 corn-producing states, the U.S. is facing a 1.4-billion-bushel shortage of upright grain storage this year, with elevators relying on bunkers and ground piles.” This year’s shortage is in stark contrast to last year, when the top corn-producing states had 361 million bushels of excess storage.-NAFB

Record Harvest, Uneven Exports to Tangle Logistics

For the fourth straight year, water levels in the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers will soon be critically low, forcing shippers to light-load grain barges during harvest season. As barge rates get higher, those higher costs are making their way down to the farm level. Gary Williams, director of the Upper Mississippi River Water Association, told Agri-Pulse that between low commodity prices and high shipping costs, 

“Corn and soybean growers are looking to stash their commodities in every nook and cranny they can find.” A Forbes report said this could not come at a worse time for farmers. “This is a peak period when corn and soybeans from the Midwest get shipped downriver to New Orleans for export to the international marketplace.”

"If the lower levels get worse," Mike Steenhoek (STEEN-hook) of the Soy Transportation Coalition said, "that may mean lost profits for farmers because of an inefficient transportation system.”

For the fourth straight year, water levels in the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers will soon be critically low, forcing shippers to light-load grain barges during harvest season. As barge rates get higher, those higher costs are making their way down to the farm level. Gary Williams, director of the Upper Mississippi River Water Association, told Agri-Pulse that between low commodity prices and high shipping costs, “Corn and soybean growers are looking to stash their commodities in every nook and cranny they can find.” A Forbes report said this could not come at a worse time for farmers. “This is a peak period when corn and soybeans from the Midwest get shipped downriver to New Orleans for export to the international marketplace.”"If the lower levels get worse," Mike Steenhoek (STEEN-hook) of the Soy Transportation Coalition said, "that may mean lost profits for farmers because of an inefficient transportation system.”-NAFB

Low Mississippi River Levels Again Set to Disrupt Harvest Shipping

December corn closed up 2 3/4 cents and March corn was up 2 1/2 cents. November soybeans closed down 1/4 cents and January soybeans were down 1 1/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 1 1/2 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 2 1/2 cents, December MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 3 1/4 cents.

Grain prices traded both sides of even on Monday as traders await more field-level reports as U.S. harvesting efforts continue to ramp up into mid-October. Soybean futures briefly overcame overnight lows to trade higher before eventually falling back toward the bottom end of the range by the close. Corn and wheat futures were also mixed, with the former finding some strength on a surprising release of weekly export inspections from USDA which reaffirmed the very strong pace of export demand for U.S. corn.&nbsp;

The livestock complex is off to a stronger start Monday morning as traders seem willing and motivated to push the contracts higher. It is helping matters that both pork cutout values and boxed beef prices are higher.

The live cattle futures are off to a stronger start for the week as the market takes the positive close of last Friday and continues to run with the support available in the marketplace. Last week Northern dressed trade began to develop on Tuesday and saw small increments of cattle trade throughout the remainder of the week.&nbsp;

The feeder cattle complex is again following the same direction as the live cattle contracts as its market is trading higher too. What could become problematic for the market moving forward is the nearby contracts are reaching resistance levels which could pressure traders to turn the contracts lower unless something substantial develops fundamentally. October is commonly referred to as "dead calf month" at sale barns as the severe temperature swings and the stressful conditions of weaning can be too much for calves. So mixed demand could remain the theme at sales barns for the next couple of week.

It seems as though the support established in the lean hog complex is holding true again this week as the contracts are continuing to trade higher.&nbsp; It is helpful again Monday morning that pork cutout values are higher with demand being robustly strong as the only cut trading lower is the picnic, which is down $1.06.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/29194004/30001.mp3">HERE </a>for Audio

Grains:December corn closed up 2 3/4 cents and March corn was up 2 1/2 cents. November soybeans closed down 1/4 cents and January soybeans were down 1 1/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 1 1/2 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 2 1/2 cents, December MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 3 1/4 cents.Grain prices traded both sides of even on Monday as traders await more field-level reports as U.S. harvesting efforts continue to ramp up into mid-October. Soybean futures briefly overcame overnight lows to trade higher before eventually falling back toward the bottom end of the range by the close. Corn and wheat futures were also mixed, with the former finding some strength on a surprising release of weekly export inspections from USDA which reaffirmed the very strong pace of export demand for U.S. corn.&nbsp;Livestock:The livestock complex is off to a stronger start Monday morning as traders seem willing and motivated to push the contracts higher. It is helping matters that both pork cutout values and boxed beef prices are higher.The live cattle futures are off to a stronger start for the week as the market takes the positive close of last Friday and continues to run with the support available in the marketplace. Last week Northern dressed trade began to develop on Tuesday and saw small increments of cattle trade throughout the remainder of the week.&nbsp;The feeder cattle complex is again following the same direction as the live cattle contracts as its market is trading higher too. What could become problematic for the market moving forward is the nearby contracts are reaching resistance levels which could pressure traders to turn the contracts lower unless something substantial develops fundamentally. October is commonly referred to as "dead calf month" at sale barns as the severe temperature swings and the stressful conditions of weaning can be too much for calves. So mixed demand could remain the theme at sales barns for the next couple of week.It seems as though the support established in the lean hog complex is holding true again this week as the contracts are continuing to trade higher.&nbsp; It is helpful again Monday morning that pork cutout values are higher with demand being robustly strong as the only cut trading lower is the picnic, which is down $1.06.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/29194004/30001.mp3">HERE </a>for Audio

Commodity markets daily recap

A trade mission to Nigeria. A memorandum of understanding with Vietnam. A surge of purchases from Bangladesh. These countries are not typically major customers for soybeans from the U.S. farm belt. But, according to Reuters, desperate farmers, their trade organizations and President Donald Trump's administration are turning to far corners of the world in hopes of averting a disaster for agriculture from a trade war that has kept China from purchasing U.S. supplies. 

The efforts so far are failing to offset the loss of the country's biggest customer for the crop. The crisis is particularly acute in Illinois, the largest U.S. soybean producing and exporting state. After months of work that included planting seeds, fertilizing fields and spraying weedkillers, Illinois growers are facing losses of up to $8 per acre thanks to low crop prices and weak exports, according to University of Illinois estimates.

A trade mission to Nigeria. A memorandum of understanding with Vietnam. A surge of purchases from Bangladesh. These countries are not typically major customers for soybeans from the U.S. farm belt. But, according to Reuters, desperate farmers, their trade organizations and President Donald Trump's administration are turning to far corners of the world in hopes of averting a disaster for agriculture from a trade war that has kept China from purchasing U.S. supplies. The efforts so far are failing to offset the loss of the country's biggest customer for the crop. The crisis is particularly acute in Illinois, the largest U.S. soybean producing and exporting state. After months of work that included planting seeds, fertilizing fields and spraying weedkillers, Illinois growers are facing losses of up to $8 per acre thanks to low crop prices and weak exports, according to University of Illinois estimates.-NAFB

US Soybean Farmers, Deserted by Big Buyer China, Scramble for Other Importers

“The U.S. federal government shutdown that began Wednesday will halt some payments to farmers and delay access to federal farm loans, the latest blow for producers already facing low crop prices, record-high debts, and a trade war at the height of the fall harvest.” reports Reuters. On Wednesday, the scope of the shutdown’s potential impact to U.S. farmers was beginning to emerge. Even short interruptions in payments could deepen farmers’ economic turmoil. ‘It costs money to run those combines,’ said Chad Hart, agricultural economist with Iowa State University.” 

The shut down effects the processing of farm loans and making payments to farmers, including billions of dollars in disaster aid contained in President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill. The USDA has stopped issuing weather-related disaster payments, accepting and processing farm loans, providing technical assistance for conservation programs, and swaths of other agency work.&nbsp;

“The U.S. federal government shutdown that began Wednesday will halt some payments to farmers and delay access to federal farm loans, the latest blow for producers already facing low crop prices, record-high debts, and a trade war at the height of the fall harvest.” reports Reuters. On Wednesday, the scope of the shutdown’s potential impact to U.S. farmers was beginning to emerge. Even short interruptions in payments could deepen farmers’ economic turmoil. ‘It costs money to run those combines,’ said Chad Hart, agricultural economist with Iowa State University.” The shut down effects the processing of farm loans and making payments to farmers, including billions of dollars in disaster aid contained in President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending bill. The USDA has stopped issuing weather-related disaster payments, accepting and processing farm loans, providing technical assistance for conservation programs, and swaths of other agency work.&nbsp;- NAFB

Gov’t Shutdown Halts Some Payments, Loans to Farmers

The FDA recently, conditionally approved Dectomax-CA1 (doramectin injection) injectable solution for the prevention and treatment of New World screwworm (NWS) larval infestations and prevention of NWS reinfestation for 21 days. 

“We understand the urgency with which America’s farmers and ranchers are asking for tools to fight New World screwworm,” said FDA Commissioner Marty Makary. “Today’s conditional approval – the first in the U.S. for NWS – shows our dedication to rapidly advancing important animal medicines when they are needed most. We continue to work tirelessly to complete review of other NWS products to protect multiple animal species in the U.S.” 

“Under this conditional approval, the FDA has determined the drug is safe and has a reasonable expectation of effectiveness. We are making this treatment available to cattle producers immediately while the sponsor collects the data needed for a full approval,” said Timothy Schell, Ph.D., acting director of the FDA’s Center for Veterinary Medicine.

The FDA recently, conditionally approved Dectomax-CA1 (doramectin injection) injectable solution for the prevention and treatment of New World screwworm (NWS) larval infestations and prevention of NWS reinfestation for 21 days. “We understand the urgency with which America’s farmers and ranchers are asking for tools to fight New World screwworm,” said FDA Commissioner Marty Makary. “Today’s conditional approval – the first in the U.S. for NWS – shows our dedication to rapidly advancing important animal medicines when they are needed most. We continue to work tirelessly to complete review of other NWS products to protect multiple animal species in the U.S.” “Under this conditional approval, the FDA has determined the drug is safe and has a reasonable expectation of effectiveness. We are making this treatment available to cattle producers immediately while the sponsor collects the data needed for a full approval,” said Timothy Schell, Ph.D., acting director of the FDA’s Center for Veterinary Medicine.-NAFB

FDA Approves First Drug for Prevention and Treatment of New World Screwworm in Cattle

By:<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/joshua-haiar/">Joshua Haiar</a> <a href="https://southdakotasearchlight.com/">South Dakota Searchlight</a>

SALEM — Spending 12 hours a day in his combine this week, harvesting amber rows of soybeans he planted in the spring, Andrew Streff has time to think — and it’s hard not to think about the ongoing trade dispute with China.

The country is boycotting purchases of U.S. soybeans in response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

“China hasn’t purchased any soybeans from the United States this year, thanks to the president,” said Streff, who farms near Salem. “Our beans are the cheapest in the world, by about $2 a bushel, but this trade war is keeping them out of China — our biggest customer.”

Robert Lee is harvesting 300 acres of soybeans on his land near De Smet. He said many farmers are hesitant to blame Trump for bad bean prices.

“But the fact is, China imported 120 million metric tons of soybeans this year and not one bushel came from the U.S.,” Lee said. “That’s a direct result of this trade war.”

Farmers were similarly affected by trade disputes during Trump’s first term. Congress responded with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/PDF/IF11289/IF11289.3.pdf" target="_blank">$28 billion</a>&nbsp;of aid for farmers in 2018 and 2019, according to the Congressional Research Service. The relief paid for farmers’ lost income by providing direct payments in its place.

U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-South Dakota, said during a Sept. 26 public event in Rapid City that the federal government will probably have to help farmers again.

“I have talked to the president about this, because some of this is a result of tariff policies, trade relationships, etc. — China’s not buying soybeans today,” Thune said. “And so I think, inevitably, what’s going to happen is they’ll probably end up doing what we did a few years ago, because of loss of markets.”

Thune said that’s something “none of us want.”

“But I think some of that tariff revenue that’s coming in probably will end up heading in that direction,” he said.

Trump’s tariffs will increase federal tax revenues by an estimated $171 billion this year, according to a Sept. 26 report from the&nbsp;<a href="https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/" target="_blank">Tax Foundation</a>, a nonpartisan, tax policy research nonprofit.

On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the Trump administration is considering aid to farmers. He said in an<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/cnbc-transcript-us-treasury-secretary-scott-bessent-speaks-with-cnbcs-squawk-box-today.html" target="_blank">&nbsp;interview</a>&nbsp;with CNBC that farmers “should expect some news on Tuesday” about “substantial support for our farmers, especially the soybean farmers.”

Jerry Schmitz is the executive director of the South Dakota Soybean Association. He said U.S. soybean prices are down more than a dollar per bushel from last year, from over $11 down to $10, with South Dakota prices another 80 cents to $1.35 lower. Local grain elevators are struggling because exports through the Pacific Northwest into Asian countries have slowed to a trickle.

Based on the number of soybean acres planted this year, Schmitz said a $1 drop in price equates to about $250 million of lost income for South Dakota farmers.

A tariff is a tax paid by importers, with the cost often passed along in prices charged to customers. Schmitz said the impact of tariffs on farmers goes beyond the obvious. An example is a rise in fertilizer prices, “partly due to inflation, but exacerbated by the tariffs.”

Streff, the Salem-area farmer, also works as a commodities broker in Mitchell. He said farmers like him who locked in a price with a grain buyer months before harvest are doing better, but “you were gambling on the future.”

“A lot of farmers were hoping the president learned from the last time around,” he said. “But it didn’t surprise me — he campaigned on doing these tariffs. The U.S. elected someone who likes to pick fights with other countries, and now we’re in the middle of it.”

He said others waited to see how the crop would turn out and if trade relations with China would improve. They haven’t.

Farm leaders and state officials are creating new domestic soybean uses, including a&nbsp;<a href="https://southdakotasearchlight.com/2025/09/09/500-million-soybean-processing-plant-opens-in-mitchell/" target="_blank">$500 million soybean processing plant</a>&nbsp;in Mitchell that will mostly use soybeans to make renewable diesel and livestock feed.

Streff said that’s encouraging, but it won’t replace the demand of a country with 1.4 billion people who like soybean-fed pork.

“It’s not going to solve all our problems,” he said.

It’s a point Thune echoed while in Rapid City.

“We need to get the Chinese market back at some point because we sell a ton,” Thune said. “Sixty percent of our soybeans are exported, mostly to China. And so we’ve got to have those export markets.”

This story was originally produced by&nbsp;<a href="https://southdakotasearchlight.com/2025/10/02/harvest-of-stress-soybean-farmers-await-help-as-tariff-dispute-closes-china-market/" target="_blank">South Dakota Searchlight</a>, which is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network which includes Missouri Independent, and is supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity.

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2025/10/1759754181444.png" alt="Andrew Streff drives his combine while harvesting soybeans on Sept. 29, 2025, near Salem. (Joshua Haiar/South Dakota Searchlight)" />
 <figcaption>Andrew Streff drives his combine while harvesting soybeans on Sept. 29, 2025, near Salem. (Joshua Haiar/South Dakota Searchlight)</figcaption>
 </figure>By:<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/joshua-haiar/">Joshua Haiar</a> <a href="https://southdakotasearchlight.com/">South Dakota Searchlight</a>SALEM — Spending 12 hours a day in his combine this week, harvesting amber rows of soybeans he planted in the spring, Andrew Streff has time to think — and it’s hard not to think about the ongoing trade dispute with China.The country is boycotting purchases of U.S. soybeans in response to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.“China hasn’t purchased any soybeans from the United States this year, thanks to the president,” said Streff, who farms near Salem. “Our beans are the cheapest in the world, by about $2 a bushel, but this trade war is keeping them out of China — our biggest customer.”Robert Lee is harvesting 300 acres of soybeans on his land near De Smet. He said many farmers are hesitant to blame Trump for bad bean prices.“But the fact is, China imported 120 million metric tons of soybeans this year and not one bushel came from the U.S.,” Lee said. “That’s a direct result of this trade war.”<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2025/10/1759754226543.png" alt="Andrew Streff drives his combine while harvesting soybeans on Sept. 29, 2025, near Salem. (Joshua Haiar/South Dakota Searchlight)" />
 <figcaption>Andrew Streff drives his combine while harvesting soybeans on Sept. 29, 2025, near Salem. (Joshua Haiar/South Dakota Searchlight)</figcaption>
 </figure>Farmers were similarly affected by trade disputes during Trump’s first term. Congress responded with&nbsp;<a href="https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/PDF/IF11289/IF11289.3.pdf" target="_blank">$28 billion</a>&nbsp;of aid for farmers in 2018 and 2019, according to the Congressional Research Service. The relief paid for farmers’ lost income by providing direct payments in its place.U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-South Dakota, said during a Sept. 26 public event in Rapid City that the federal government will probably have to help farmers again.“I have talked to the president about this, because some of this is a result of tariff policies, trade relationships, etc. — China’s not buying soybeans today,” Thune said. “And so I think, inevitably, what’s going to happen is they’ll probably end up doing what we did a few years ago, because of loss of markets.”Thune said that’s something “none of us want.”“But I think some of that tariff revenue that’s coming in probably will end up heading in that direction,” he said.Trump’s tariffs will increase federal tax revenues by an estimated $171 billion this year, according to a Sept. 26 report from the&nbsp;<a href="https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/" target="_blank">Tax Foundation</a>, a nonpartisan, tax policy research nonprofit.On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the Trump administration is considering aid to farmers. He said in an<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/cnbc-transcript-us-treasury-secretary-scott-bessent-speaks-with-cnbcs-squawk-box-today.html" target="_blank">&nbsp;interview</a>&nbsp;with CNBC that farmers “should expect some news on Tuesday” about “substantial support for our farmers, especially the soybean farmers.”Jerry Schmitz is the executive director of the South Dakota Soybean Association. He said U.S. soybean prices are down more than a dollar per bushel from last year, from over $11 down to $10, with South Dakota prices another 80 cents to $1.35 lower. Local grain elevators are struggling because exports through the Pacific Northwest into Asian countries have slowed to a trickle.Based on the number of soybean acres planted this year, Schmitz said a $1 drop in price equates to about $250 million of lost income for South Dakota farmers.A tariff is a tax paid by importers, with the cost often passed along in prices charged to customers. Schmitz said the impact of tariffs on farmers goes beyond the obvious. An example is a rise in fertilizer prices, “partly due to inflation, but exacerbated by the tariffs.”Streff, the Salem-area farmer, also works as a commodities broker in Mitchell. He said farmers like him who locked in a price with a grain buyer months before harvest are doing better, but “you were gambling on the future.”“A lot of farmers were hoping the president learned from the last time around,” he said. “But it didn’t surprise me — he campaigned on doing these tariffs. The U.S. elected someone who likes to pick fights with other countries, and now we’re in the middle of it.”He said others waited to see how the crop would turn out and if trade relations with China would improve. They haven’t.Farm leaders and state officials are creating new domestic soybean uses, including a&nbsp;<a href="https://southdakotasearchlight.com/2025/09/09/500-million-soybean-processing-plant-opens-in-mitchell/" target="_blank">$500 million soybean processing plant</a>&nbsp;in Mitchell that will mostly use soybeans to make renewable diesel and livestock feed.Streff said that’s encouraging, but it won’t replace the demand of a country with 1.4 billion people who like soybean-fed pork.“It’s not going to solve all our problems,” he said.It’s a point Thune echoed while in Rapid City.“We need to get the Chinese market back at some point because we sell a ton,” Thune said. “Sixty percent of our soybeans are exported, mostly to China. And so we’ve got to have those export markets.”This story was originally produced by&nbsp;<a href="https://southdakotasearchlight.com/2025/10/02/harvest-of-stress-soybean-farmers-await-help-as-tariff-dispute-closes-china-market/" target="_blank">South Dakota Searchlight</a>, which is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network which includes Missouri Independent, and is supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity.

Harvest of stress: Soybean farmers await help as tariff dispute closes China market

December corn closed down 2 3/4 cents and March corn was down 2 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed down 5 3/4 cents and January soybeans were down 4 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 2 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 3/4 cents.

December corn closed down 3 cents and March corn was down 3 cents. November soybeans closed up 4 1/4 cents and January soybeans were up 4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 8 1/2 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 4 1/2 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was down 8 cents.

It was a slow day to close the week for futures markets as the U.S. government shutdown is in its third day, resulting in a lack of government reports to influence traders. The late week rally across row crop futures gradually exhausted itself through the session Friday, led by soybean futures, which eventually settled over a dime lower than the daily high on the November contract. Outside markets leaned positive to close the week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average accelerating weekly gains to a fresh record on Friday. Investors are currently showing no major concerns regarding the government shutdown, focusing instead on an expected rate cut in the Fed's meeting late this month. Energy markets ended the week higher, with crude oil futures narrowly avoiding five straight lower sessions amid support in the low $60 per barrel range.

The live cattle complex battled through, as the market continues to feel stalemated, not seeing the support it needs to drive the contracts much higher. Between weaker cash cattle prices and lower waning boxed beef prices, the market is stuck trading steady/somewhat lower as there's not enough support to do anything different for the time being, but the market found enough for all contracts to finish in the green. Before the week ends, there should still be some more cash cattle trade to develop; however, there's only been a thin movement in the North so far, and virtually no movement yet at all in the South. Asking prices are noted at $235 to $237 in the South and $362 plus in the North.

The feeder cattle complex was back to trading moderately higher as traders are currently willing to mildly support the contracts. The live cattle complex ended giving enough support and the market was able to maintain the mild rally through the day's end.

The lean hog complex is finally seeing support work its way into the market as pork cutout values were higher, and trades allowed the contracts to trade mildly higher as well. The biggest factor helping drive the carcass price higher this morning is the belly's $6.82 jump, and the picnics $4.24 gain as well.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/10/03140156/30001-markets-230pm.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed down 2 3/4 cents and March corn was down 2 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed down 5 3/4 cents and January soybeans were down 4 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 2 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 3/4 cents.For the Week:December corn closed down 3 cents and March corn was down 3 cents. November soybeans closed up 4 1/4 cents and January soybeans were up 4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 8 1/2 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 4 1/2 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was down 8 cents.It was a slow day to close the week for futures markets as the U.S. government shutdown is in its third day, resulting in a lack of government reports to influence traders. The late week rally across row crop futures gradually exhausted itself through the session Friday, led by soybean futures, which eventually settled over a dime lower than the daily high on the November contract. Outside markets leaned positive to close the week with the Dow Jones Industrial Average accelerating weekly gains to a fresh record on Friday. Investors are currently showing no major concerns regarding the government shutdown, focusing instead on an expected rate cut in the Fed's meeting late this month. Energy markets ended the week higher, with crude oil futures narrowly avoiding five straight lower sessions amid support in the low $60 per barrel range.LIVE CATTLE:The live cattle complex battled through, as the market continues to feel stalemated, not seeing the support it needs to drive the contracts much higher. Between weaker cash cattle prices and lower waning boxed beef prices, the market is stuck trading steady/somewhat lower as there's not enough support to do anything different for the time being, but the market found enough for all contracts to finish in the green. Before the week ends, there should still be some more cash cattle trade to develop; however, there's only been a thin movement in the North so far, and virtually no movement yet at all in the South. Asking prices are noted at $235 to $237 in the South and $362 plus in the North. The feeder cattle complex was back to trading moderately higher as traders are currently willing to mildly support the contracts. The live cattle complex ended giving enough support and the market was able to maintain the mild rally through the day's end.The lean hog complex is finally seeing support work its way into the market as pork cutout values were higher, and trades allowed the contracts to trade mildly higher as well. The biggest factor helping drive the carcass price higher this morning is the belly's $6.82 jump, and the picnics $4.24 gain as well.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/10/03140156/30001-markets-230pm.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The Renewable Fuels Association applauded California Governor Gavin Newsome for signing Assembly Bill 30 into law. AB30, which passed unanimously out of both the Assembly and the Senate, immediately legalizes lower-cost E15 fuel in the Golden State. Prior to the signing, California was the only remaining state in the nation where E15 sales weren’t allowed. RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper said, “California is on the road to lower gas prices and a cleaner future for families across the state,” and “Many other states have already seen the benefits of E15, including healthier air, better engine performance, and costs savings at the pump.”

 California drivers are about to experience those same benefits for themselves, and RFA thanked Governor Newsom for voicing his support for E15 through the legislative process. Recent studies have shown that E15 could save California drivers $2.7 billion annually, or about $200 per household, while significantly cutting tailpipe pollutants. 

The Renewable Fuels Association applauded California Governor Gavin Newsome for signing Assembly Bill 30 into law. AB30, which passed unanimously out of both the Assembly and the Senate, immediately legalizes lower-cost E15 fuel in the Golden State. Prior to the signing, California was the only remaining state in the nation where E15 sales weren’t allowed. RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper said, “California is on the road to lower gas prices and a cleaner future for families across the state,” and “Many other states have already seen the benefits of E15, including healthier air, better engine performance, and costs savings at the pump.” California drivers are about to experience those same benefits for themselves, and RFA thanked Governor Newsom for voicing his support for E15 through the legislative process. Recent studies have shown that E15 could save California drivers $2.7 billion annually, or about $200 per household, while significantly cutting tailpipe pollutants. -NAFB

California governor signs E15 bill

The U.S. federal government shutdown will stop some payments to farmers and also delay access to federal farm loans. Reuters said it’s one more blow for producers already struggling with low crop prices, record-high debts, and a trade war at the height of the fall harvest. Republican and Democratic lawmakers couldn’t agree on a plan to fund the federal government, and this will last until one party gets enough votes for its funding plan. 

“Even short interruptions in payments could deepen farmers’ economic turmoil,” said Chad Hart, an agricultural economist with Iowa State University. “After all, it costs money to run those combines at harvest.”  While administration of nutrition programs and food inspections will continue, much of USDA’s other work will cease. That includes processing farm loans and making payments to farmers, including billions in disaster aid. It will also not process annual commodity and land conservation payments typically issued by October. 

The U.S. federal government shutdown will stop some payments to farmers and also delay access to federal farm loans. Reuters said it’s one more blow for producers already struggling with low crop prices, record-high debts, and a trade war at the height of the fall harvest. Republican and Democratic lawmakers couldn’t agree on a plan to fund the federal government, and this will last until one party gets enough votes for its funding plan. “Even short interruptions in payments could deepen farmers’ economic turmoil,” said Chad Hart, an agricultural economist with Iowa State University. “After all, it costs money to run those combines at harvest.” While administration of nutrition programs and food inspections will continue, much of USDA’s other work will cease. That includes processing farm loans and making payments to farmers, including billions in disaster aid. It will also not process annual commodity and land conservation payments typically issued by October. -NAFB

Shutdown halts some payments and loans to farmers

December corn closed up 5 1/4 cents and March corn was up 5 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed up 10 3/4 cents and January soybeans were up 10 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 3 1/2 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 5 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was up 3 1/2 cents.

U.S. crop prices again shook off a shaky start to the session on Thursday, with the soybean market leading the way higher as traders continue to look ahead to the month-end summit between Presidents Trump and Xi as a reason for optimism and a reason to remove short-side risk out of portfolios amid shrinking soybean supply side ideas as well. Corn and wheat futures were mainly along for the ride on Thursday but also managed to put together modestly higher sessions. Outside markets were overall a negative weight on agricultural prices for Thursday, with mixed equities as the Dow Jones pushes back toward record highs while the S&amp;P reversed off record highs on Thursday as well. The U.S. Dollar Index was firmer on Thursday while energy markets fell again, breaking support near $62 per barrel to trade to the lowest level since late May.

Without any substantial fundamental support having developed in the complex this week, the live cattle contracts were yet again trading lower. And yes, the spot December live cattle contract was again trading below its 40-day moving average as traders continued to look around for immediate support -- but came up short handed from both a fundamental and technical sense. Asking prices are noted in the South at $237 to $240, and at $363 plus in the North. No new trade has developed following the light business that transpired on Wednesday where some dressed cattle in Nebraska sold at $360 -- $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Some bids are on the table at $230 to $233 live in Kansas, and $230 live in Nebraska and $357 to $360 dressed.

Following in the live cattle market's footsteps, the feeder cattle complex also traded lower as traders continue to struggle to find enough support to justify trading higher. Not to mention, adding only more kindling to the feeder cattle market's reasons to trade lower, the market did close lower Wednesday afternoon after traders decided they didn't possess enough support to be edging up against the market's resistance thresholds.

The lean hog complex continued to scale lower and lower as the market again left without enough support to help traders put a bottom in the downward spiral that the market's currently been on. Pork cutout values are again lower this morning with the picnic being the market begging hindrance as it alone is done $6.62.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/10/02135955/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed up 5 1/4 cents and March corn was up 5 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed up 10 3/4 cents and January soybeans were up 10 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 3 1/2 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 5 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was up 3 1/2 cents.U.S. crop prices again shook off a shaky start to the session on Thursday, with the soybean market leading the way higher as traders continue to look ahead to the month-end summit between Presidents Trump and Xi as a reason for optimism and a reason to remove short-side risk out of portfolios amid shrinking soybean supply side ideas as well. Corn and wheat futures were mainly along for the ride on Thursday but also managed to put together modestly higher sessions. Outside markets were overall a negative weight on agricultural prices for Thursday, with mixed equities as the Dow Jones pushes back toward record highs while the S&amp;P reversed off record highs on Thursday as well. The U.S. Dollar Index was firmer on Thursday while energy markets fell again, breaking support near $62 per barrel to trade to the lowest level since late May.LIVESTOCK:Without any substantial fundamental support having developed in the complex this week, the live cattle contracts were yet again trading lower. And yes, the spot December live cattle contract was again trading below its 40-day moving average as traders continued to look around for immediate support -- but came up short handed from both a fundamental and technical sense. Asking prices are noted in the South at $237 to $240, and at $363 plus in the North. No new trade has developed following the light business that transpired on Wednesday where some dressed cattle in Nebraska sold at $360 -- $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Some bids are on the table at $230 to $233 live in Kansas, and $230 live in Nebraska and $357 to $360 dressed.Following in the live cattle market's footsteps, the feeder cattle complex also traded lower as traders continue to struggle to find enough support to justify trading higher. Not to mention, adding only more kindling to the feeder cattle market's reasons to trade lower, the market did close lower Wednesday afternoon after traders decided they didn't possess enough support to be edging up against the market's resistance thresholds.The lean hog complex continued to scale lower and lower as the market again left without enough support to help traders put a bottom in the downward spiral that the market's currently been on. Pork cutout values are again lower this morning with the picnic being the market begging hindrance as it alone is done $6.62.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/10/02135955/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The White House Office of Management and Budget requires the USDA to maintain a plan for agency operations in the absence of appropriations. The plan shows a total of 85,907 USDA employees on board before the government shutdown took place on Wednesday morning at 12 am. According to the plan, a total of 42,256 agency employees were placed on furlough. 

The plan shows that the work getting paused during a shutdown includes most of the Risk Management Agency, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Foreign Agricultural Service, Food and Nutrition Service, and other segments of the agency. The shutdown particularly affects employees who work face-to-face with farmers. More than 6,000 of the 9,000-plus Farm Service Agency employees are going on furlough. By comparison, just 533 of the 7,600-plus people working at the Food Safety and Inspection Service, which regulates meat and poultry processing, are to be furloughed. Pesticide registration work at the EPA will continue.

The White House Office of Management and Budget requires the USDA to maintain a plan for agency operations in the absence of appropriations. The plan shows a total of 85,907 USDA employees on board before the government shutdown took place on Wednesday morning at 12 am. According to the plan, a total of 42,256 agency employees were placed on furlough. The plan shows that the work getting paused during a shutdown includes most of the Risk Management Agency, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Foreign Agricultural Service, Food and Nutrition Service, and other segments of the agency. The shutdown particularly affects employees who work face-to-face with farmers. More than 6,000 of the 9,000-plus Farm Service Agency employees are going on furlough. By comparison, just 533 of the 7,600-plus people working at the Food Safety and Inspection Service, which regulates meat and poultry processing, are to be furloughed. Pesticide registration work at the EPA will continue.-NAFB

Over 40,000 USDA employees furloughed by shutdown

Tens of thousands of FFA members, advisors, alumni, and supporters from across the country will gather in Indianapolis for the 98th National FFA Convention and Expo. This celebration of agricultural education and leadership takes place from October 29-November 1. “This year’s convention is more than just an event; it’s a celebration of our members’ dedication and a launchpad for the next generation of leaders,” said Christine White, chief program officer for the National FFA Organization. 

“It’s a time where we honor the hard work of today and ignite the spark of inspiration for tomorrow, empowering a community that will shape the future of agriculture and innovation for years to come.” Last year, over 71,000 people attended the event, which is the largest annual gathering of FFA members. Attendees will participate in award ceremonies, explore careers, do hands-on service projects, and more. FFA members will participate in a variety of competitions.

Tens of thousands of FFA members, advisors, alumni, and supporters from across the country will gather in Indianapolis for the 98th National FFA Convention and Expo. This celebration of agricultural education and leadership takes place from October 29-November 1. “This year’s convention is more than just an event; it’s a celebration of our members’ dedication and a launchpad for the next generation of leaders,” said Christine White, chief program officer for the National FFA Organization. “It’s a time where we honor the hard work of today and ignite the spark of inspiration for tomorrow, empowering a community that will shape the future of agriculture and innovation for years to come.” Last year, over 71,000 people attended the event, which is the largest annual gathering of FFA members. Attendees will participate in award ceremonies, explore careers, do hands-on service projects, and more. FFA members will participate in a variety of competitions.-NAFB

Celebrating leadership and agriculture at the National FFA Convention

December corn closed up 1 cent and March corn was up 3/4 cents. November soybeans closed up 11 1/4 cents and January soybeans were up 10 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 2 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 1 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 5 3/4 cents.

U.S. crop markets were en route to another lower finish Wednesday, with corn and wheat futures in particular continuing to trade the fallout from bearish Sept. 1 stocks reported by USDA on Tuesday. However, the tide quickly turned shortly after noon when President Trump posted on Truth Social he will meet with Chinese President Xi in four weeks, and soybeans will be a "major topic of discussion." This ultimately sent soybean futures surging over a dime in the last hour plus of trade and ultimately 19 1/4 cents higher than the daily low, pulling corn futures higher as well. Outside markets Wednesday were mixed, as the featured macroeconomic news was the government shutdown which took effect late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Equity markets turned higher after ADP's September employment report indicated a slowing labor market and pointed toward another rate cut in the next Fed meeting. Energy markets were lower after Wednesday's Petroleum Status report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a general building of crude and crude product inventories in the U.S. and ahead of this weekend's OPEC+ production meeting.

Despite the U.S. government shutdown, the live cattle complex trudged on with business as normal. The live cattle contracts traded fully higher into Wednesday's noon hour, with yet again the market's deferred contracts seeing the biggest day-over-day gains. But even so, the spot December contract was still trading slightly below the market's 40-day moving average, which continues to be a threshold the market is struggling to conquer and the contracts finished the day no better than mixed. Still no cash cattle trade has developed but asking prices are now noted in the South at $237 to $240 but are still elusive in the North. With no packer interest having developed yet, it's likely the week's trade will be delayed another day if not two.

The feeder cattle complex was also scaling higher into Wednesday's noon hour as the market points to the corn complex's continued decline as a slightly bullish factor. The market is growing closer to resistance levels which could cause traders some angst, but traders were content to scale the contracts higher until the reversal in the grain complexes, that triggered some late session selling and the feeder contracts finished in the red all but a few far deferred contracts.

The lean hog complex continued to struggle as the market is currently trading below support at $87.00 in the spot December contract -- which has been a threshold the market has respected since early September. And again, adding to the market's disappointment is the fact that pork cutout values were lower once again today.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/10/01144403/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed up 1 cent and March corn was up 3/4 cents. November soybeans closed up 11 1/4 cents and January soybeans were up 10 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 2 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 1 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 5 3/4 cents.U.S. crop markets were en route to another lower finish Wednesday, with corn and wheat futures in particular continuing to trade the fallout from bearish Sept. 1 stocks reported by USDA on Tuesday. However, the tide quickly turned shortly after noon when President Trump posted on Truth Social he will meet with Chinese President Xi in four weeks, and soybeans will be a "major topic of discussion." This ultimately sent soybean futures surging over a dime in the last hour plus of trade and ultimately 19 1/4 cents higher than the daily low, pulling corn futures higher as well. Outside markets Wednesday were mixed, as the featured macroeconomic news was the government shutdown which took effect late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Equity markets turned higher after ADP's September employment report indicated a slowing labor market and pointed toward another rate cut in the next Fed meeting. Energy markets were lower after Wednesday's Petroleum Status report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a general building of crude and crude product inventories in the U.S. and ahead of this weekend's OPEC+ production meeting.LIVESTOCK:Despite the U.S. government shutdown, the live cattle complex trudged on with business as normal. The live cattle contracts traded fully higher into Wednesday's noon hour, with yet again the market's deferred contracts seeing the biggest day-over-day gains. But even so, the spot December contract was still trading slightly below the market's 40-day moving average, which continues to be a threshold the market is struggling to conquer and the contracts finished the day no better than mixed. Still no cash cattle trade has developed but asking prices are now noted in the South at $237 to $240 but are still elusive in the North. With no packer interest having developed yet, it's likely the week's trade will be delayed another day if not two. The feeder cattle complex was also scaling higher into Wednesday's noon hour as the market points to the corn complex's continued decline as a slightly bullish factor. The market is growing closer to resistance levels which could cause traders some angst, but traders were content to scale the contracts higher until the reversal in the grain complexes, that triggered some late session selling and the feeder contracts finished in the red all but a few far deferred contracts.The lean hog complex continued to struggle as the market is currently trading below support at $87.00 in the spot December contract -- which has been a threshold the market has respected since early September. And again, adding to the market's disappointment is the fact that pork cutout values were lower once again today.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/10/01144403/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The USDA’s Grain Stocks Report showed corn stocks down 13 percent from last year, soybean stocks are eight percent lower, and all wheat stocks are up six percent from 2024. Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2025, totaled 1.53 billion bushels, down 13 percent from September 1, 2024. Both on-farm and off-farm stocks were down from last year. 

Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2025, totaled 316 million bushels, down eight percent from September 1, 2024. Both on-farm and off-farm stocks were lower. All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2025, totaled 2.12 billion bushels, up six percent from a year ago. Based on the 2024 end of the marketing year analysis, corn for grain production was revised up 25 million bushels from the prior estimate. 2024 soybean production was revised up 7.7 million bushels from the previous estimate. 

The USDA’s Grain Stocks Report showed corn stocks down 13 percent from last year, soybean stocks are eight percent lower, and all wheat stocks are up six percent from 2024. Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2025, totaled 1.53 billion bushels, down 13 percent from September 1, 2024. Both on-farm and off-farm stocks were down from last year. Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2025, totaled 316 million bushels, down eight percent from September 1, 2024. Both on-farm and off-farm stocks were lower. All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2025, totaled 2.12 billion bushels, up six percent from a year ago. Based on the 2024 end of the marketing year analysis, corn for grain production was revised up 25 million bushels from the prior estimate. 2024 soybean production was revised up 7.7 million bushels from the previous estimate. -NAFB

Corn and soybean stocks are lower

In the event of a government shutdown that has now come to fruition, the USDA says it’s taken steps to be ready. Back in the 2018 federal shutdown, Food Safety and Inspection Service meat inspection and laboratory testing personnel continued to work. USDA says it is prepared for all possible contingencies covering operations, including critical services and support programs. Two people with direct knowledge of the agency’s plans said that USDA employees may face more layoffs. 

The department submitted its tentative shutdown contingency plan to the Office of Management and Budget, and it does include a reduction-in-force provision. No further details were provided on which employees could be cut, but the two people said the rest of the proposal largely mirrors USDA’s typical shutdown contingency plan, last updated during the Biden administration.

In the event of a government shutdown that has now come to fruition, the USDA says it’s taken steps to be ready. Back in the 2018 federal shutdown, Food Safety and Inspection Service meat inspection and laboratory testing personnel continued to work. USDA says it is prepared for all possible contingencies covering operations, including critical services and support programs. Two people with direct knowledge of the agency’s plans said that USDA employees may face more layoffs. The department submitted its tentative shutdown contingency plan to the Office of Management and Budget, and it does include a reduction-in-force provision. No further details were provided on which employees could be cut, but the two people said the rest of the proposal largely mirrors USDA’s typical shutdown contingency plan, last updated during the Biden administration.-NAFB

USDA ready for government shutdown

December corn closed down 6 cents and March corn was down 6 1/2 cents. November soybeans closed down 8 3/4 cents and January soybeans were down 9 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed down 10 1/2 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 11 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 6 1/2 cents.

Grain markets were under pressure through Tuesday's session with selling intensifying on the release of overall bearish quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports from USDA. Outside markets also leaned negatively on ag futures on Tuesday, with crude oil futures retreating to start the week back toward 2-month support near $62 per barrel. Meanwhile, equities were lower on Tuesday as well as investors weigh what a potential government shutdown could mean for markets moving forward, with bearish concerns being the potential for interference with the Federal Reserve's path to rate cuts, as well as job market concerns amid the potential for layoffs at the federal level.

Although the market started the day off weaker, the live cattle complex collectively advanced its position and traded slightly higher into Tuesday's closing bell. Unfortunately, the market continues to stagger around its 40-day moving average in the spot December contract as traders don't know which way to truly push the market just yet. On one hand, they look at the market's immediate fundamentals and are disappointed to see fed cash cattle prices and boxed beef prices continuing to drift lower as they typically do seasonally. But on the other hand, traders have also recognized that from a 10,000-foot view perspective, the market is still incredibly bullish with herd supplies at a multi-decade low, and the fact remaining that supplies can't be rebuilt overnight. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and it's not likely that any trade develops until Wednesday at the earliest. Bids and asking prices remain elusive at this point too.

The feeder cattle complex was not being as cautious as the live cattle market, as its contracts were confidently trading $3.00 higher into Tuesday's noon hour. And with the feeder cattle complex not up against immediate resistance pressure, it's likely that even if the live cattle market does weaken, the feeder cattle contracts should be able to maintain their momentum for the short term.

It was a painful morning for the lean hog complex as the market continued to break lower. Seeming unable to maintain the gains made just last week, the lean hog complex is continuing to back away from the highs scored late last week as fundamental support isn't as strong as traders need it to be.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/30144122/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed down 6 cents and March corn was down 6 1/2 cents. November soybeans closed down 8 3/4 cents and January soybeans were down 9 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed down 10 1/2 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 11 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 6 1/2 cents.Grain markets were under pressure through Tuesday's session with selling intensifying on the release of overall bearish quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports from USDA. Outside markets also leaned negatively on ag futures on Tuesday, with crude oil futures retreating to start the week back toward 2-month support near $62 per barrel. Meanwhile, equities were lower on Tuesday as well as investors weigh what a potential government shutdown could mean for markets moving forward, with bearish concerns being the potential for interference with the Federal Reserve's path to rate cuts, as well as job market concerns amid the potential for layoffs at the federal level.LIVESTOCK:Although the market started the day off weaker, the live cattle complex collectively advanced its position and traded slightly higher into Tuesday's closing bell. Unfortunately, the market continues to stagger around its 40-day moving average in the spot December contract as traders don't know which way to truly push the market just yet. On one hand, they look at the market's immediate fundamentals and are disappointed to see fed cash cattle prices and boxed beef prices continuing to drift lower as they typically do seasonally. But on the other hand, traders have also recognized that from a 10,000-foot view perspective, the market is still incredibly bullish with herd supplies at a multi-decade low, and the fact remaining that supplies can't be rebuilt overnight. Still no cash cattle trade has developed and it's not likely that any trade develops until Wednesday at the earliest. Bids and asking prices remain elusive at this point too.The feeder cattle complex was not being as cautious as the live cattle market, as its contracts were confidently trading $3.00 higher into Tuesday's noon hour. And with the feeder cattle complex not up against immediate resistance pressure, it's likely that even if the live cattle market does weaken, the feeder cattle contracts should be able to maintain their momentum for the short term.It was a painful morning for the lean hog complex as the market continued to break lower. Seeming unable to maintain the gains made just last week, the lean hog complex is continuing to back away from the highs scored late last week as fundamental support isn't as strong as traders need it to be.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/30144122/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The August Rural Mainstreet Index covering a multi-state region shows one-fifth of grain farmers will experience a negative cash flow in 2025. For the seventh time this year, the overall regional economic index sank below growth-neutral, falling to 38.5 in September, down from 48.1 in August. Also, for the 16th time in the past 17 months, farmland prices sank below growth-neutral. Elevated interest rates, higher input costs, and below breakeven prices caused the downward pressure on farmland. 

Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 25th straight month. Three out of four bank CEOs reported that tariff increases have had a negative impact on farm operations. “Weak agricultural commodity prices for grain producers continue to dampen economic activity in the ten-state region covered by the Index,” said Dr. Ernie Goss. “Falling agricultural commodity prices represent the greatest threat to agricultural banks over the next 12 months.”

The August Rural Mainstreet Index covering a multi-state region shows one-fifth of grain farmers will experience a negative cash flow in 2025. For the seventh time this year, the overall regional economic index sank below growth-neutral, falling to 38.5 in September, down from 48.1 in August. Also, for the 16th time in the past 17 months, farmland prices sank below growth-neutral. Elevated interest rates, higher input costs, and below breakeven prices caused the downward pressure on farmland. Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 25th straight month. Three out of four bank CEOs reported that tariff increases have had a negative impact on farm operations. “Weak agricultural commodity prices for grain producers continue to dampen economic activity in the ten-state region covered by the Index,” said Dr. Ernie Goss. “Falling agricultural commodity prices represent the greatest threat to agricultural banks over the next 12 months.”-NAFB

Rural Mainstreet Index turns negative

The USDA will issue a second Emergency Commodity Assistance Program payment to eligible producers for the 2024 crop year. Of the authorized $10 billion in ECAP assistance, USDA’s Farm Service Agency has already provided over $8 billion in payments to eligible producers to mitigate the impacts of increased input costs and falling commodity prices. “Initial ECAP payments were factored by 85 percent to ensure that total program payments didn’t exceed $10 billion in available funding,” said USDA Deputy Undersecretary Brooke Appleton. “Because additional funds remain, FSA is issuing another payment.” 

Payments will automatically be made to eligible producers with approved ECAP applications who received an initial payment. Any application approved after September 25 will receive one lump sum. Appleton said, “These payments, combined with the entire suite of supplemental disaster assistance programs, will help producers navigate market uncertainty, pay down debt from the 2024 crop year, and secure financing for 2026.” 

The USDA will issue a second Emergency Commodity Assistance Program payment to eligible producers for the 2024 crop year. Of the authorized $10 billion in ECAP assistance, USDA’s Farm Service Agency has already provided over $8 billion in payments to eligible producers to mitigate the impacts of increased input costs and falling commodity prices. “Initial ECAP payments were factored by 85 percent to ensure that total program payments didn’t exceed $10 billion in available funding,” said USDA Deputy Undersecretary Brooke Appleton. “Because additional funds remain, FSA is issuing another payment.” Payments will automatically be made to eligible producers with approved ECAP applications who received an initial payment. Any application approved after September 25 will receive one lump sum. Appleton said, “These payments, combined with the entire suite of supplemental disaster assistance programs, will help producers navigate market uncertainty, pay down debt from the 2024 crop year, and secure financing for 2026.” -NAFB

USDA issues second assistance payment to producers

December corn closed down 1/2 cents and March corn was down 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed down 3 1/4 cents and January soybeans were down 3 1/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 2 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 1/4 cents, December MIAX Minneapolis wheat was up 1 1/2 cents.

Corn and soybean markets were moderately lower to begin the new week but also held nearby support as a good weather window across the U.S. Grain Belt looks to encourage harvest advancement. Wheat futures were higher, which offered support to the corn market, although technical resistance continues to hold those prices in check as well. Outside markets leaned negative on Monday with crude oil futures sharply lower on fears of another output increase when OPEC+ members meet this upcoming weekend. The U.S. dollar was lower for the second straight session, which likely worked to support wheat futures on Monday.

The live cattle complex is continuing to trade lower as the market looks around for reassuring support; but it isn't seeing much rise on Monday. October live cattle are down $0.35 at $231.45, December live cattle are down $0.45 at $233.85 and February live cattle are down $0.32 at $236.17. Thankfully (for the meantime) the spot December contract is remaining above the market's 40-day moving average, but the market seems to teeter at that threshold as traders aren't confident in which way the market should trade. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado.

The feeder cattle complex is mixed into Monday's noon hour as the market is unsettled seeing the live cattle contracts trade lower,; but some of the furthest deferred months are still trading higher. More than anything the futures complex seems to be held at a mere standstill, looking for support to develop, or waiting for more pressure to build to send the contracts one way or another.

Like the cattle complex, the lean hog market is mixed into Monday's noon hour. But following the big surge the lean hog market saw on Friday, it's quite commendable that the contracts that are trading lower are just doing so in a mild matter as traders could have panicked at Monday's start and opted to give back most of what Friday's trade secured.&nbsp;

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/08194004/30001.mp3">Here </a>for Audio

Grains:December corn closed down 1/2 cents and March corn was down 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed down 3 1/4 cents and January soybeans were down 3 1/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 2 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 1/4 cents, December MIAX Minneapolis wheat was up 1 1/2 cents.Corn and soybean markets were moderately lower to begin the new week but also held nearby support as a good weather window across the U.S. Grain Belt looks to encourage harvest advancement. Wheat futures were higher, which offered support to the corn market, although technical resistance continues to hold those prices in check as well. Outside markets leaned negative on Monday with crude oil futures sharply lower on fears of another output increase when OPEC+ members meet this upcoming weekend. The U.S. dollar was lower for the second straight session, which likely worked to support wheat futures on Monday.Livestock:The live cattle complex is continuing to trade lower as the market looks around for reassuring support; but it isn't seeing much rise on Monday. October live cattle are down $0.35 at $231.45, December live cattle are down $0.45 at $233.85 and February live cattle are down $0.32 at $236.17. Thankfully (for the meantime) the spot December contract is remaining above the market's 40-day moving average, but the market seems to teeter at that threshold as traders aren't confident in which way the market should trade. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado.The feeder cattle complex is mixed into Monday's noon hour as the market is unsettled seeing the live cattle contracts trade lower,; but some of the furthest deferred months are still trading higher. More than anything the futures complex seems to be held at a mere standstill, looking for support to develop, or waiting for more pressure to build to send the contracts one way or another.Like the cattle complex, the lean hog market is mixed into Monday's noon hour. But following the big surge the lean hog market saw on Friday, it's quite commendable that the contracts that are trading lower are just doing so in a mild matter as traders could have panicked at Monday's start and opted to give back most of what Friday's trade secured.&nbsp;Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/08194004/30001.mp3">Here </a>for Audio

The White House budget office is instructing federal agencies to prepare reduction-in-force plans for mass firings during a possible government shutdown, specifically targeting employees who work for programs that are not legally required to continue. The Office of Management and Budget move to permanently reduce the government workforce if there is a shutdown, outlined in a memo shared with Politico ahead of release to agencies tonight, escalates the stakes of a potential shutdown next week. 

In the memo, OMB told agencies to identify programs, projects and activities where discretionary funding will lapse Oct. 1 and no alternative funding source is available. For those areas, OMB directed agencies to begin drafting RIF plans that would go beyond standard furloughs, permanently eliminating jobs in programs not consistent with President Donald Trump’s priorities in the event of a shutdown. 

The move marks a significant break from how shutdowns have been handled in recent decades, when most furloughs were temporary and employees were brought back once Congress voted to reopen government and funding was restored.

The White House budget office is instructing federal agencies to prepare reduction-in-force plans for mass firings during a possible government shutdown, specifically targeting employees who work for programs that are not legally required to continue. The Office of Management and Budget move to permanently reduce the government workforce if there is a shutdown, outlined in a memo shared with Politico ahead of release to agencies tonight, escalates the stakes of a potential shutdown next week. In the memo, OMB told agencies to identify programs, projects and activities where discretionary funding will lapse Oct. 1 and no alternative funding source is available. For those areas, OMB directed agencies to begin drafting RIF plans that would go beyond standard furloughs, permanently eliminating jobs in programs not consistent with President Donald Trump’s priorities in the event of a shutdown. The move marks a significant break from how shutdowns have been handled in recent decades, when most furloughs were temporary and employees were brought back once Congress voted to reopen government and funding was restored.-NAFB

White House Says to Plan for Shutdown and Mass Firings; Risk for Shutdown Continues to Increase

Consumer demand for products like cheese, butter and yogurt that rely on protein and butterfat content continues to drive dairy sales growth in the U.S. and abroad. Over the past decade, milk delivered to U.S. dairy processing plants has become more nutrient-dense with higher levels of the two key components to meet rising demand. However, the pace of growth in butterfat content has far exceeded protein, which creates challenges for U.S. cheddar and American-style cheesemakers that rely on a more balanced ratio of the two. 

“U.S. dairy producers did an exceptional job increasing butterfat levels in milk to meet demand,” said Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist at CoBank. “For 10 years, the market couldn’t supply enough of it, and now there’s an oversupply – it’s almost too much of a good thing. Cheesemakers strive for a protein-to-fat ratio near 0.80. Anything significantly lower than that can reduce cheese quality and compromise production yields.”

Consumer demand for products like cheese, butter and yogurt that rely on protein and butterfat content continues to drive dairy sales growth in the U.S. and abroad. Over the past decade, milk delivered to U.S. dairy processing plants has become more nutrient-dense with higher levels of the two key components to meet rising demand. However, the pace of growth in butterfat content has far exceeded protein, which creates challenges for U.S. cheddar and American-style cheesemakers that rely on a more balanced ratio of the two. “U.S. dairy producers did an exceptional job increasing butterfat levels in milk to meet demand,” said Corey Geiger, lead dairy economist at CoBank. “For 10 years, the market couldn’t supply enough of it, and now there’s an oversupply – it’s almost too much of a good thing. Cheesemakers strive for a protein-to-fat ratio near 0.80. Anything significantly lower than that can reduce cheese quality and compromise production yields.”-NAFB

A Butterfat Boom Leaves Cheesemakers Demanding More Protein

As of Sept.1, there were 74.5 million hogs and pigs on U.S. farms, down 1% from September 2024 but up 1% from June. 1, 2025, according to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report published today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Other key findings in the report were:

As of Sept.1, there were 74.5 million hogs and pigs on U.S. farms, down 1% from September 2024 but up 1% from June. 1, 2025, according to the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report published today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Other key findings in the report were:<ul>
 <li>Of the 74.5 million hogs and pigs, 68.5 million were market hogs, while 5.93 million were kept for breeding.</li><li>Between June and August 2025, 34.1 million pigs were weaned on U.S. farms, down 3% from the same time period one year earlier.</li><li>From June through September 2025, U.S. hog and pig producers weaned an average of 11.82 pigs per litter.</li><li>U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.86 million sows farrow between September and November 2025, and 2.82 million sows farrow between December 2025 and February 2026.</li><li>Iowa hog producers accounted for the largest inventory among the states, at 25.1 million head. Minnesota had the second largest inventory at 8.75 million head. North Carolina was third with 7.80 million head.</li>
 </ul>-NAFB

United States Hog Inventory Down 1%

December corn closed down 3 3/4 cents and March corn was down 3 1/2 cents. November soybeans closed up 1 1/2 cents and January soybeans were up 1 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 6 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 7 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 5 1/4 cents.

December corn closed down 2 cents and March corn was down 2 1/2 cents. November soybeans closed down 11 3/4 cents and January soybeans were down 11 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 1 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 2 3/4 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was up 1/4 cents.

It was another slow day for ag markets to close the week as grain and oilseed markets mainly adhered to technical signals ahead of the weekend break. The biggest ag news for Friday was President Trump's comments late Thursday that the administration plans to disperse part of the revenue generated from tariffs as an aid package to U.S. farmers who are hurting amid low prices. The market reaction to this news was muted, although there was perhaps some bearish undertones in the implication of President Trump's statement that farmers will continue to be hurt "for a little while" being that ag-centric trade agreements may not be close currently. In outside market news, Personal Consumption Expenditure data came in as expected with the core index showing a 2.9% inflation reading, steady with July, and likely keeping the Federal Reserve's path to rate cuts in upcoming meetings clear. Energy markets were also firm Friday, with November crude oil futures trading to their highest level since early August.

After starting the day off with a rocky start, the live cattle complex thankfully traded mostly higher into Friday's closing bell, but with the market's deferred contracts again seeing the biggest daily increases. The spot December contract is thankfully back to trading slightly above the market's 40-day moving average, which will continue to be an important threshold to monitor, as a close beneath that price point could indicate continued downward pressure. Thus far this week Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $365, which is $6.00 lower than last week's weighted average and Southern live cattle have been marked at mostly $237, which is $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

The feeder cattle complex also trading higher into Friday's noon hour as the market continues to closely track alongside the live cattle market. Unlike the live cattle market, however, the feeder cattle contracts saw more steady gains throughout all the contracts, nearby and deferred. The spot November contract is currently trading above the market's 40-day moving average, and hopefully, with continued strong sales in the countryside, the market should be able to close above that threshold so long as nothing dramatic happens.

Feeling empowered by Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report and by the morning uptick in pork cutout values, the lean hog complex traded fully higher into Friday's close. As a matter of fact, the market is currently seeing the spot December contract reach new contract highs as fundamental support is ample. The market will likely be able to sustain this momentum at least in the short term.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/26140511/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed down 3 3/4 cents and March corn was down 3 1/2 cents. November soybeans closed up 1 1/2 cents and January soybeans were up 1 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 6 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 7 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 5 1/4 cents.For the Week:December corn closed down 2 cents and March corn was down 2 1/2 cents. November soybeans closed down 11 3/4 cents and January soybeans were down 11 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 1 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 2 3/4 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was up 1/4 cents.It was another slow day for ag markets to close the week as grain and oilseed markets mainly adhered to technical signals ahead of the weekend break. The biggest ag news for Friday was President Trump's comments late Thursday that the administration plans to disperse part of the revenue generated from tariffs as an aid package to U.S. farmers who are hurting amid low prices. The market reaction to this news was muted, although there was perhaps some bearish undertones in the implication of President Trump's statement that farmers will continue to be hurt "for a little while" being that ag-centric trade agreements may not be close currently. In outside market news, Personal Consumption Expenditure data came in as expected with the core index showing a 2.9% inflation reading, steady with July, and likely keeping the Federal Reserve's path to rate cuts in upcoming meetings clear. Energy markets were also firm Friday, with November crude oil futures trading to their highest level since early August.LIVESTOCK:After starting the day off with a rocky start, the live cattle complex thankfully traded mostly higher into Friday's closing bell, but with the market's deferred contracts again seeing the biggest daily increases. The spot December contract is thankfully back to trading slightly above the market's 40-day moving average, which will continue to be an important threshold to monitor, as a close beneath that price point could indicate continued downward pressure. Thus far this week Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $365, which is $6.00 lower than last week's weighted average and Southern live cattle have been marked at mostly $237, which is $3.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. The feeder cattle complex also trading higher into Friday's noon hour as the market continues to closely track alongside the live cattle market. Unlike the live cattle market, however, the feeder cattle contracts saw more steady gains throughout all the contracts, nearby and deferred. The spot November contract is currently trading above the market's 40-day moving average, and hopefully, with continued strong sales in the countryside, the market should be able to close above that threshold so long as nothing dramatic happens.Feeling empowered by Thursday's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report and by the morning uptick in pork cutout values, the lean hog complex traded fully higher into Friday's close. As a matter of fact, the market is currently seeing the spot December contract reach new contract highs as fundamental support is ample. The market will likely be able to sustain this momentum at least in the short term.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/26140511/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

Multiple grain traders are reporting that Chinese soybean buyers have booked at least ten and perhaps as many as 20 cargoes, of Argentinian soybeans after the country decided to scrap export taxes. That’s another setback to America’s farmers, who are already shut out of their number one market and hurting from low prices. Removing the tax on exports boosts the competitiveness of Argentina’s soybeans, prompting traders to purchase cargoes for fourth-quarter inventories in China, a period that’s usually dominated by U.S. soybean imports. 

However, Reports say that’s now clouded by Washington’s trade war with Beijing. One trader said Chinese buyers booked a total of 15 cargoes, dealing a fresh blow to America’s farmers, missing out on billions in soybean sales to China halfway through their prime marketing season. Argentina temporarily eliminated export taxes on grains and their by-products, as well as on beef and poultry, in a bid to spur sales abroad and bring in much-needed income. 

Multiple grain traders are reporting that Chinese soybean buyers have booked at least ten and perhaps as many as 20 cargoes, of Argentinian soybeans after the country decided to scrap export taxes. That’s another setback to America’s farmers, who are already shut out of their number one market and hurting from low prices. Removing the tax on exports boosts the competitiveness of Argentina’s soybeans, prompting traders to purchase cargoes for fourth-quarter inventories in China, a period that’s usually dominated by U.S. soybean imports. However, Reports say that’s now clouded by Washington’s trade war with Beijing. One trader said Chinese buyers booked a total of 15 cargoes, dealing a fresh blow to America’s farmers, missing out on billions in soybean sales to China halfway through their prime marketing season. Argentina temporarily eliminated export taxes on grains and their by-products, as well as on beef and poultry, in a bid to spur sales abroad and bring in much-needed income. -NAFB