This year's ARC/PLC decision is due a month later than usual. The farm safety net program choice doesn't need to be made until April 15. For the bulk of the Corn Belt, ag economist Gary Schnitkey says PLC is likely to pay less for corn, soybeans, and wheat this season than ARC County.&nbsp; “Obviously, we don't know all the prices and yields that will happen in 2025. If we have extremely low prices, PLC will pay more, but that's a pretty remote case yet,” Schnitkey said.

So, the Farmdoc team at the University of Illinois leans toward taking ARC County rather than PLC for all three crops: corn, soybeans, and wheat. Unlike federal crop insurance, which requires a premium to be paid for the coverage level, the federal farm safety net programs are free of charge.

This year's ARC/PLC decision is due a month later than usual. The farm safety net program choice doesn't need to be made until April 15. For the bulk of the Corn Belt, ag economist Gary Schnitkey says PLC is likely to pay less for corn, soybeans, and wheat this season than ARC County.&nbsp; “Obviously, we don't know all the prices and yields that will happen in 2025. If we have extremely low prices, PLC will pay more, but that's a pretty remote case yet,” Schnitkey said.So, the Farmdoc team at the University of Illinois leans toward taking ARC County rather than PLC for all three crops: corn, soybeans, and wheat. Unlike federal crop insurance, which requires a premium to be paid for the coverage level, the federal farm safety net programs are free of charge.

ARC or PLC decision deadline moved to April 15th

May corn closed up 4 1/2 cents and July corn was up 4 3/4 cents. May soybeans closed up 10 1/4 cents and July soybeans were up 9 1/2 cents. May KC wheat closed up 14 1/2 cents, May Chicago wheat was up 8 1/2 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was up 9 1/4 cents.

Row crops reversed from a sluggish Wednesday to trade higher Thursday as corn, soybeans, and wheat have all benefitted from bargain hunting amongst traders as long-term support was challenged over the middle of the week. Brazilian government crop estimates that remain below USDA estimates along with a solid round of weekly export data provided a spark to markets Thursday. Outside market influence for Thursday was mixed, with equities again struggling amid ongoing trade war countermeasures. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is stabilizing following a drastic weeklong drop off. Gold futures have surged to yet another all-time high Thursday, as investors seek reprieve from the volatile and uncertain marketplace.

It was another good day for the live cattle complex as the market continues to grind higher yet again, at least the nearby contracts. It continues to keep bullish tones alive and well throughout the market. The fact that choice cuts are higher again this morning and feedlot managers seem determined to push cash prices higher this week as they patiently wait for packer demand to improve without growing anxious.

The feeder cattle complex continued to push its contracts higher and higher, which seems to signal robust buying from traders as the market's direction is undoubtedly higher due to the vast majority of the nearby contracts reaching new contract highs again today, but al contracts ended the day lower after a flurry of late session sell-offs.

Yes, morning pork cutout values may be higher, but the day's export report was rather disappointing, which seems to be the reason for the lean hog complex sharp downturn. Although it's positive to see pork cutout values higher, the carcass price is skewed by the belly's $16.53 jump.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/13141946/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

GRAINS:May corn closed up 4 1/2 cents and July corn was up 4 3/4 cents. May soybeans closed up 10 1/4 cents and July soybeans were up 9 1/2 cents. May KC wheat closed up 14 1/2 cents, May Chicago wheat was up 8 1/2 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was up 9 1/4 cents.Row crops reversed from a sluggish Wednesday to trade higher Thursday as corn, soybeans, and wheat have all benefitted from bargain hunting amongst traders as long-term support was challenged over the middle of the week. Brazilian government crop estimates that remain below USDA estimates along with a solid round of weekly export data provided a spark to markets Thursday. Outside market influence for Thursday was mixed, with equities again struggling amid ongoing trade war countermeasures. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is stabilizing following a drastic weeklong drop off. Gold futures have surged to yet another all-time high Thursday, as investors seek reprieve from the volatile and uncertain marketplace.LIVESTOCK:It was another good day for the live cattle complex as the market continues to grind higher yet again, at least the nearby contracts. It continues to keep bullish tones alive and well throughout the market. The fact that choice cuts are higher again this morning and feedlot managers seem determined to push cash prices higher this week as they patiently wait for packer demand to improve without growing anxious.The feeder cattle complex continued to push its contracts higher and higher, which seems to signal robust buying from traders as the market's direction is undoubtedly higher due to the vast majority of the nearby contracts reaching new contract highs again today, but al contracts ended the day lower after a flurry of late session sell-offs.Yes, morning pork cutout values may be higher, but the day's export report was rather disappointing, which seems to be the reason for the lean hog complex sharp downturn. Although it's positive to see pork cutout values higher, the carcass price is skewed by the belly's $16.53 jump.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/13141946/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

Commodity closing markets

Industry experts have been predicting farmers may make a shift to planting more corn acres this spring due to tighter supplies and cut back on soybeans. However, recent reports say that President Donald Trump’s tariffs may mean America’s farmers might not make that shift after all. Bloomberg says levies on some products from Canada, Mexico, and China have shifted a key market indicator in favor of soybeans. 

Industry experts have been predicting farmers may make a shift to planting more corn acres this spring due to tighter supplies and cut back on soybeans. However, recent reports say that President Donald Trump’s tariffs may mean America’s farmers might not make that shift after all. Bloomberg says levies on some products from Canada, Mexico, and China have shifted a key market indicator in favor of soybeans.

Tariffs may threaten shift to more corn acres 

New data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers says U.S. sales of Ag tractors and combines continued to decline in February 2025, in contrast to last year. U.S. sales of agricultural tractors declined 17.7 percent in February, while U.S. sales of combines fell by 48 percent. “While the recent decline in agricultural tractor and combine sales reflect current market challenges, including global trade concerns and tariffs, we continue to remain optimistic about the long-term future of agricultural equipment,” says Curt Blades of AEM. “The resilience and adaptability of our industry have been proven time and time again.” 

Four-wheel drive tractors took the biggest drop, falling 41 percent last month compared to February 2024. In Canada, four-wheel drive tractor sales rose 23.7 percent from February 2024, while self-propelled combine sales dropped 32 percent during the same time. Blades added,  “We are confident that through innovation and collaboration, equipment manufacturers can navigate these challenges.” 

New data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers says U.S. sales of Ag tractors and combines continued to decline in February 2025, in contrast to last year. U.S. sales of agricultural tractors declined 17.7 percent in February, while U.S. sales of combines fell by 48 percent. “While the recent decline in agricultural tractor and combine sales reflect current market challenges, including global trade concerns and tariffs, we continue to remain optimistic about the long-term future of agricultural equipment,” says Curt Blades of AEM. “The resilience and adaptability of our industry have been proven time and time again.” Four-wheel drive tractors took the biggest drop, falling 41 percent last month compared to February 2024. In Canada, four-wheel drive tractor sales rose 23.7 percent from February 2024, while self-propelled combine sales dropped 32 percent during the same time. Blades added, “We are confident that through innovation and collaboration, equipment manufacturers can navigate these challenges.”

Sales of tractors and combines decline in February

May corn closed down 9 1/2 cents and July corn was down 9 1/2 cents. May soybeans closed down 10 3/4 cents and July soybeans were down 10 cents. May KC wheat closed up 1 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 2 3/4 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was down 3 cents.

USDA reports can have a tendency to be what the viewer makes them, meaning if one looks hard enough the bearish trader can find bearish aspects and the bullish trader can find bullish aspects in line with their own market bias. It is then the market's job to sort out the tug of war between the two sides. Tuesday's WASDE was perhaps no better example of this, as despite fairly benign estimates from the USDA which didn't really offer any new insights to the market, corn and soy futures have plunged to double-digit losses since the release. 

It sure seems now that bullish traders who already had their confidence shaken by the late February selloff, were needing much more obviously bullish adjustments from the USDA to continue their buying spree at least in the short term. The bottom line is that the fundamental outlook for U.S. row crops is pretty much the same today as it was Tuesday morning, with the exception of perhaps wheat which did receive a more bearish forecast for old crop. It will be interesting to with all three commodities nearing long-term support points, if traders choose to shrug off Tuesday's report and search for bargain buying opportunities.

Upon seeing the equity markets trading higher and the continued support of stronger boxed beef prices, the live cattle complex is back in action trading higher into Wednesday's close. The timing of the market's higher climb is ideal for the cash cattle complex too as some early bids have surfaced in the South at $200, but feedlot managers aren't impressed with the packer's attempt to get cattle bought at those levels. With asking prices firm in the South at $202 plus, the board now trading higher and boxed beef prices holding strong, feedlot managers are likely going to hold out until later in the week in hopes of stronger cash prices.

The market's resistance at $278.00 didn't seem to stand a chance at holding the feeder cattle complex back Wednesday as the contracts traded $2.00 to $3.00 higher. As always when the market breaks through a critical resistance plane, it will be important to see if traders keep the market's momentum, and if they can, what they elect to do on Thursday. But so long as the market's fundamentals remain supportive, traders may be able to maintain their bullishness.

The lean hog complex traded mixed as traders aren't pleased with the fact that morning pork cutout values were lower. As the market chops merely sideways (seeming to wait for demand to perk back up) traders are pressuring the spot April contract while they let the rest of the nearby contracts trading just mildly higher.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/12155510/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

GRAINS:May corn closed down 9 1/2 cents and July corn was down 9 1/2 cents. May soybeans closed down 10 3/4 cents and July soybeans were down 10 cents. May KC wheat closed up 1 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 2 3/4 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was down 3 cents.USDA reports can have a tendency to be what the viewer makes them, meaning if one looks hard enough the bearish trader can find bearish aspects and the bullish trader can find bullish aspects in line with their own market bias. It is then the market's job to sort out the tug of war between the two sides. Tuesday's WASDE was perhaps no better example of this, as despite fairly benign estimates from the USDA which didn't really offer any new insights to the market, corn and soy futures have plunged to double-digit losses since the release. It sure seems now that bullish traders who already had their confidence shaken by the late February selloff, were needing much more obviously bullish adjustments from the USDA to continue their buying spree at least in the short term. The bottom line is that the fundamental outlook for U.S. row crops is pretty much the same today as it was Tuesday morning, with the exception of perhaps wheat which did receive a more bearish forecast for old crop. It will be interesting to with all three commodities nearing long-term support points, if traders choose to shrug off Tuesday's report and search for bargain buying opportunities.LIVESTOCK:Upon seeing the equity markets trading higher and the continued support of stronger boxed beef prices, the live cattle complex is back in action trading higher into Wednesday's close. The timing of the market's higher climb is ideal for the cash cattle complex too as some early bids have surfaced in the South at $200, but feedlot managers aren't impressed with the packer's attempt to get cattle bought at those levels. With asking prices firm in the South at $202 plus, the board now trading higher and boxed beef prices holding strong, feedlot managers are likely going to hold out until later in the week in hopes of stronger cash prices.The market's resistance at $278.00 didn't seem to stand a chance at holding the feeder cattle complex back Wednesday as the contracts traded $2.00 to $3.00 higher. As always when the market breaks through a critical resistance plane, it will be important to see if traders keep the market's momentum, and if they can, what they elect to do on Thursday. But so long as the market's fundamentals remain supportive, traders may be able to maintain their bullishness.The lean hog complex traded mixed as traders aren't pleased with the fact that morning pork cutout values were lower. As the market chops merely sideways (seeming to wait for demand to perk back up) traders are pressuring the spot April contract while they let the rest of the nearby contracts trading just mildly higher.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/12155510/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

Commodity closing markets recap

Grocery stores and gas pumps are important inflation indicators. While inflationary concerns have been persistent in recent years, the back and forth regarding tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the tariffs on Chinese goods, have prompted additional concerns about prices. Results from the Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey find most consumers across both political parties expect tariffs to increase the prices they pay for food. 

Grocery stores and gas pumps are important inflation indicators. While inflationary concerns have been persistent in recent years, the back and forth regarding tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the tariffs on Chinese goods, have prompted additional concerns about prices. Results from the Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey find most consumers across both political parties expect tariffs to increase the prices they pay for food.

Consumers worry about tariffs and food prices

May corn closed down 1 3/4 cents per bushel at $4.70 1/4 and July corn was down 1 1/2 cents at $4.77 0/1. May soybeans closed down 2 3/4 cents at $10.11 1/4 and July soybeans were down 2 3/4 cents at $10.26 1/2. May KC wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents at $5.72 0/1, May Chicago wheat was down 5 3/4 cents at $5.57 3/4 and May Minneapolis wheat was down 7 1/4 cents at $5.97 1/4.

Ahead of the March WASDE report, U.S. ag futures markets were a bit stronger on corn and soybeans and weaker on wheat. Following what turned out to be a big yawner from USDA, the markets continued that way in low volume trade until late session when corn and beans traded in the red. The only significant change was in U.S. wheat where ending stocks rose by 25 mb. On the world front there were no changes to either Brazil or Argentine corn or soy crops. The market focus is and will continue to be on what appears to be an escalating trade war between Canada and the U.S. Also weighing on markets is the ongoing meltdown in equities with markets down hard again Tuesday.

The live cattle complex may be traded lower and Tuesday morning's WASDE report was lukewarm in regards to support, but boxed beef prices are just what the market wants to see. With choice cuts up over $4.00 higher and select pushing prices over $2.00 higher -- it's possible that packers could be more aggressive in this week's cash market if demand remains strong. Still no cash cattle trade has developed yet, but asking prices are noted in the countryside at $202 plus. They're still unestablished in the North.

Although, the live cattle complex traded lower, the feeder cattle complex continued to trade modestly higher despite the fact that the contracts are trading at resistance levels. It is interesting to note that the furthest deferred contracts are trading with the biggest day-over-day gains, with some of the deferred months trading more than $1.00 higher. For the spot April contract to etch into new technical territory (meaning it confidently breaks through the resistance threshold at $278.00, it finished under at $277.70) the market will need the help of the live cattle/fed cattle market to sustain prices above that price point.

Although midday pork cutout values were higher, the lean hog complex faltered in the last hour of trade, as the WASDE report wasn't overly fruitful. Packers were fairly aggressive this morning in the cash market, and if pork cutout values close higher, there's a chance that the market could turn higher on Wednesday if fundamental support remains supportive.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/11143306/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

GRAINS:May corn closed down 1 3/4 cents per bushel at $4.70 1/4 and July corn was down 1 1/2 cents at $4.77 0/1. May soybeans closed down 2 3/4 cents at $10.11 1/4 and July soybeans were down 2 3/4 cents at $10.26 1/2. May KC wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents at $5.72 0/1, May Chicago wheat was down 5 3/4 cents at $5.57 3/4 and May Minneapolis wheat was down 7 1/4 cents at $5.97 1/4.Ahead of the March WASDE report, U.S. ag futures markets were a bit stronger on corn and soybeans and weaker on wheat. Following what turned out to be a big yawner from USDA, the markets continued that way in low volume trade until late session when corn and beans traded in the red. The only significant change was in U.S. wheat where ending stocks rose by 25 mb. On the world front there were no changes to either Brazil or Argentine corn or soy crops. The market focus is and will continue to be on what appears to be an escalating trade war between Canada and the U.S. Also weighing on markets is the ongoing meltdown in equities with markets down hard again Tuesday.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex may be traded lower and Tuesday morning's WASDE report was lukewarm in regards to support, but boxed beef prices are just what the market wants to see. With choice cuts up over $4.00 higher and select pushing prices over $2.00 higher -- it's possible that packers could be more aggressive in this week's cash market if demand remains strong. Still no cash cattle trade has developed yet, but asking prices are noted in the countryside at $202 plus. They're still unestablished in the North.Although, the live cattle complex traded lower, the feeder cattle complex continued to trade modestly higher despite the fact that the contracts are trading at resistance levels. It is interesting to note that the furthest deferred contracts are trading with the biggest day-over-day gains, with some of the deferred months trading more than $1.00 higher. For the spot April contract to etch into new technical territory (meaning it confidently breaks through the resistance threshold at $278.00, it finished under at $277.70) the market will need the help of the live cattle/fed cattle market to sustain prices above that price point.Although midday pork cutout values were higher, the lean hog complex faltered in the last hour of trade, as the WASDE report wasn't overly fruitful. Packers were fairly aggressive this morning in the cash market, and if pork cutout values close higher, there's a chance that the market could turn higher on Wednesday if fundamental support remains supportive.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/11143306/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

Commodity closing markets Tuesday

South Dakota’s governor has signed a bill prohibiting use of eminent domain for pipelines carrying carbon dioxide, throwing a wrench into Summit Carbon Solutions' project to build a pipeline carrying liquefied carbon dioxide to a sequestration site in North Dakota. 

South Dakota’s governor has signed a bill prohibiting use of eminent domain for pipelines carrying carbon dioxide, throwing a wrench into Summit Carbon Solutions' project to build a pipeline carrying liquefied carbon dioxide to a sequestration site in North Dakota.

New law prohibits use of eminent domain for CO2 pipelines

Bacon has experienced modest growth across the last year fueled mainly by an increase in retail prices. Over the past year, the bacon category has seen solid growth, with units up more than 2% and sales rising over 2.7%, according to Circana. That’s faster than the overall edible sales growth of under 1% in units and 1.9% in dollars. It shows bacon dollar and unit sales are positive across the category, with the natural channels leading category growth. At the retail level, the banners that are embracing the “better for you” trends and including more of these SKUs in their bacon set have realized higher lift in their sets vs. those who have not. 

Bacon has experienced modest growth across the last year fueled mainly by an increase in retail prices. Over the past year, the bacon category has seen solid growth, with units up more than 2% and sales rising over 2.7%, according to Circana. That’s faster than the overall edible sales growth of under 1% in units and 1.9% in dollars. It shows bacon dollar and unit sales are positive across the category, with the natural channels leading category growth. At the retail level, the banners that are embracing the “better for you” trends and including more of these SKUs in their bacon set have realized higher lift in their sets vs. those who have not.

Bacon sales up over past 12 months

May corn closed up 2 3/4 cents per bushel at $4.72 and July corn was up 2 3/4 cents at $4.79 1/2. May soybeans closed down 11 cents at $10.14 0/1 and July soybeans were down 10 1/2 cents at $10.28 1/4. May KC wheat closed up 13 3/4 cents at $5.79 1/2, May Chicago wheat was up 11 1/4 cents at $5.63 1/2 and May Minneapolis wheat was up 10 3/4 cents at $6.04 1/2.

While the corn market was mostly mixed to firm on the front end, soybeans and bean oil felt pressure from the plunge in canola futures after China decided to put a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal. The wheat market showed independent strength on the sixth consecutive lower close on the U.S. Dollar Index and dryness adversely impacting both U.S. Plains wheat and that of southern Russia. Ahead of Tuesday's March WASDE, few meaningful changes are expected in the U.S. balance sheet while all eyes will be on revisions to South American corn and soy production estimates. Pressure came also from outside financial markets as equities continued the downdraft on talk of recession.

It's exciting to see not only the live cattle contracts trading higher at Monday's start again, and maintaining through the whole session, but to see boxed beef prices higher at the beginning of the week. Traders were elated to see cash cattle prices venture somewhat higher last week, which is what really pushed the futures complex to jolt higher last Friday. And as long as fundamental support can remain plentiful in the market again this week -- continuing to trade higher shouldn't be an issue for the live cattle complex. If boxed beef prices show good interest all week, there's a chance that packers could be active in this week's market again. However, if demand is soft and prices fall flat, then packers won't likely show much interest in the cash market.

Continuing to mirror the live cattle market's trend, the feeder cattle contracts also traded higher heading into Monday's close. It will be interesting to see how traders handle the feeder cattle complex this week as the market is nearing resistance levels. If fundamental support is adequate on the live cattle market side of things (meaning boxed beef demand and strong fed cash cattle sales) then there's a chance that the market inches higher and pressures all time high price points, but without certainty from the live cattle complex, the market will face some headwinds.

Thankfully, the market's stronger close last week has added a little technical support early this week, which allowed the lean hog contracts to enjoy stronger prices ahead of Monday's close. And helping the market's cause as well is the fact that midday pork cutout values were up $1.81, and the carcass price is being driven evenly from the cuts.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/10143309/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio.

GRAINS:May corn closed up 2 3/4 cents per bushel at $4.72 and July corn was up 2 3/4 cents at $4.79 1/2. May soybeans closed down 11 cents at $10.14 0/1 and July soybeans were down 10 1/2 cents at $10.28 1/4. May KC wheat closed up 13 3/4 cents at $5.79 1/2, May Chicago wheat was up 11 1/4 cents at $5.63 1/2 and May Minneapolis wheat was up 10 3/4 cents at $6.04 1/2.While the corn market was mostly mixed to firm on the front end, soybeans and bean oil felt pressure from the plunge in canola futures after China decided to put a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal. The wheat market showed independent strength on the sixth consecutive lower close on the U.S. Dollar Index and dryness adversely impacting both U.S. Plains wheat and that of southern Russia. Ahead of Tuesday's March WASDE, few meaningful changes are expected in the U.S. balance sheet while all eyes will be on revisions to South American corn and soy production estimates. Pressure came also from outside financial markets as equities continued the downdraft on talk of recession.LIVESTOCK:It's exciting to see not only the live cattle contracts trading higher at Monday's start again, and maintaining through the whole session, but to see boxed beef prices higher at the beginning of the week. Traders were elated to see cash cattle prices venture somewhat higher last week, which is what really pushed the futures complex to jolt higher last Friday. And as long as fundamental support can remain plentiful in the market again this week -- continuing to trade higher shouldn't be an issue for the live cattle complex. If boxed beef prices show good interest all week, there's a chance that packers could be active in this week's market again. However, if demand is soft and prices fall flat, then packers won't likely show much interest in the cash market.Continuing to mirror the live cattle market's trend, the feeder cattle contracts also traded higher heading into Monday's close. It will be interesting to see how traders handle the feeder cattle complex this week as the market is nearing resistance levels. If fundamental support is adequate on the live cattle market side of things (meaning boxed beef demand and strong fed cash cattle sales) then there's a chance that the market inches higher and pressures all time high price points, but without certainty from the live cattle complex, the market will face some headwinds.Thankfully, the market's stronger close last week has added a little technical support early this week, which allowed the lean hog contracts to enjoy stronger prices ahead of Monday's close. And helping the market's cause as well is the fact that midday pork cutout values were up $1.81, and the carcass price is being driven evenly from the cuts. Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/10143309/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio.

Commodity markets closing wrap-up

May corn closed up 5 1/4 cents and July corn was up 5 cents. May soybeans closed down 2 1/4 cents and July soybeans were down 3/4 cents. May KC wheat closed down 1 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 2 3/4 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was down 1 1/4 cents.

May corn closed down 1/4 cents and July corn was unchanged. May soybeans closed down 3/4 cents and July soybeans were down 1 1/4 cents. May KC wheat closed down 8 1/4 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 4 1/2 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was down 5 cents.

Soy and wheat markets were slightly slower while corn futures pushed higher to close a week of price action that was very ugly at the front end, followed by recovery sessions on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday was a comparatively quieter day in terms of trade news, as Thursday's tariff rollbacks are currently being viewed with mixed feelings. On one hand, the step in the right direction toward a long-term solution for trade between the U.S. and Canada has reassured some traders. On the other hand, there is certainly a sense of frustration that the current compromise is simply yet another month-long delay in tariffs rather than a longer-term deal. This has investors very nervous that the market will be put through the same whipsaw action in three to four weeks. This is evident in the response of equity markets over the past 24 hours, where indices are struggling to gain upward traction to end the week.

The market may have been stalemated throughout Thursday's trade as traders were waiting to see what direction the fed cash cattle market was going to trade. The wait was worth it. With all of the live cattle contracts trading dollars higher, traders are elated to again advance the contracts amid support from the cash cattle complex as Northern dressed cattle are traded at $315, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. The fundamental support from the cash sector has helped the spot April contract again conquer its 40-day moving average, which is a significant technical threshold.

Thanks to the added support of the live cattle complex and the higher trade in the Northern fed cash cattle market, the feeder cattle contracts traded higher too. And so long as the support doesn't diminish and leave the live cattle contracts, the feeder cattle market should be able to maintain this momentum.

The lean hog complex&nbsp;traded higher as the market is pleased with the week's developments. With the delay in tariffs against Mexico and Canada for another month, Thursday's strong export report and today's higher pork cutout values -- the market possessed all the support it could hope for.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/07143207/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

GRAINS:May corn closed up 5 1/4 cents and July corn was up 5 cents. May soybeans closed down 2 1/4 cents and July soybeans were down 3/4 cents. May KC wheat closed down 1 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 2 3/4 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was down 1 1/4 cents.For the week:May corn closed down 1/4 cents and July corn was unchanged. May soybeans closed down 3/4 cents and July soybeans were down 1 1/4 cents. May KC wheat closed down 8 1/4 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 4 1/2 cents and May Minneapolis wheat was down 5 cents.Soy and wheat markets were slightly slower while corn futures pushed higher to close a week of price action that was very ugly at the front end, followed by recovery sessions on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday was a comparatively quieter day in terms of trade news, as Thursday's tariff rollbacks are currently being viewed with mixed feelings. On one hand, the step in the right direction toward a long-term solution for trade between the U.S. and Canada has reassured some traders. On the other hand, there is certainly a sense of frustration that the current compromise is simply yet another month-long delay in tariffs rather than a longer-term deal. This has investors very nervous that the market will be put through the same whipsaw action in three to four weeks. This is evident in the response of equity markets over the past 24 hours, where indices are struggling to gain upward traction to end the week.LIVESTOCK:The market may have been stalemated throughout Thursday's trade as traders were waiting to see what direction the fed cash cattle market was going to trade. The wait was worth it. With all of the live cattle contracts trading dollars higher, traders are elated to again advance the contracts amid support from the cash cattle complex as Northern dressed cattle are traded at $315, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. The fundamental support from the cash sector has helped the spot April contract again conquer its 40-day moving average, which is a significant technical threshold.Thanks to the added support of the live cattle complex and the higher trade in the Northern fed cash cattle market, the feeder cattle contracts traded higher too. And so long as the support doesn't diminish and leave the live cattle contracts, the feeder cattle market should be able to maintain this momentum.The lean hog complex&nbsp;traded higher as the market is pleased with the week's developments. With the delay in tariffs against Mexico and Canada for another month, Thursday's strong export report and today's higher pork cutout values -- the market possessed all the support it could hope for.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/07143207/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

Commodity closing markets Friday

The Energy Information Administration says ethanol output rose to its highest level in almost a month while inventories declined slightly during the week ending on February 28. Production rose to an average of 1.09 million barrels a day during the week. That’s up from 1.08 million barrels a day, on average, and the highest since the week ending January 31st.

The Energy Information Administration says ethanol output rose to its highest level in almost a month while inventories declined slightly during the week ending on February 28. Production rose to an average of 1.09 million barrels a day during the week. That’s up from 1.08 million barrels a day, on average, and the highest since the week ending January 31st.

Ethanol production reaches highest level in a month

The updated 2025 calendar year runoff forecast for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, continues to be below average. February runoff in the Basin above Sioux City was one million acre-feet, 91 percent of the average. “Runoff in the reservoir system was slightly below average for February, and the conditions across most of the basin remain dry,” said John Remus of the Army Corps of Engineers. “Mountain snowpack improved in February but is still below average, while the Plains snowpack, which was already below average, has mostly melted.”

The updated 2025 calendar year runoff forecast for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, continues to be below average. February runoff in the Basin above Sioux City was one million acre-feet, 91 percent of the average. “Runoff in the reservoir system was slightly below average for February, and the conditions across most of the basin remain dry,” said John Remus of the Army Corps of Engineers. “Mountain snowpack improved in February but is still below average, while the Plains snowpack, which was already below average, has mostly melted.”

Flows increasing on Missouri River for navigation support

May corn closed up 8 1/4 cents and July corn was up 7 1/2 cents. May soybeans closed up 15 1/2 cents and July soybeans were up 14 1/2 cents. May KC wheat closed up 8 3/4 cents, May Chicago wheat was up 5 3/4 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was up 8 1/4 cents.

U.S. row-crop markets posted a second consecutive day higher as it was announced late morning that President Trump and Mexican President Sheinbaum have reached a short-term compromise to delay tariffs on goods covered by the USMCA agreement until April 2. There has yet to be any announced alleviation to tariffs against Canada outside of the auto industry rollbacks put in place Wednesday. Regardless, stock markets remain suppressed through Thursday's trade as investors grow frustrated by the whirlwind of policy over the past couple of weeks. Meanwhile, ag markets are also getting a boost from further deterioration of the U.S. dollar as a result of economic uncertainty. Outside commodities leaned negative on Thursday, with crude oil trading to their lowest level since May of 2023 after OPEC+ reaffirmed plans on Wednesday to begin production increases in April.

The live cattle market's rally has again been paused as traders seem to be reluctant to advance the contracts any higher until they see what the week's cash cattle market is going to accomplish. There are currently some bids on the table with live cattle in Texas being bid at $195, and bids in Nebraska surfacing at $195 live and $310 dressed.

The feeder cattle complex is again following the live cattle market as its uncertain that it can challenge resistance levels without the full commitment of traders and better support from the fed cash cattle market. Unless the live cattle complex begins to trade higher, then feeders may follow suit, but without the live cattle market's support higher trade isn't likely.

Thankfully, Thursday has lent the lean hog complex all sorts of good news as the morning's export report was fruitful and news broke mid-morning that President Trump plans to delay tariffs on most goods from Mexico for another month. And with U.S. hog producers concerned about keeping a good working relationship open between the U.S. and Mexico as the market needs that export channel, this announcement is found to be a win.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/06145624/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

GRAIN:May corn closed up 8 1/4 cents and July corn was up 7 1/2 cents. May soybeans closed up 15 1/2 cents and July soybeans were up 14 1/2 cents. May KC wheat closed up 8 3/4 cents, May Chicago wheat was up 5 3/4 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was up 8 1/4 cents.U.S. row-crop markets posted a second consecutive day higher as it was announced late morning that President Trump and Mexican President Sheinbaum have reached a short-term compromise to delay tariffs on goods covered by the USMCA agreement until April 2. There has yet to be any announced alleviation to tariffs against Canada outside of the auto industry rollbacks put in place Wednesday. Regardless, stock markets remain suppressed through Thursday's trade as investors grow frustrated by the whirlwind of policy over the past couple of weeks. Meanwhile, ag markets are also getting a boost from further deterioration of the U.S. dollar as a result of economic uncertainty. Outside commodities leaned negative on Thursday, with crude oil trading to their lowest level since May of 2023 after OPEC+ reaffirmed plans on Wednesday to begin production increases in April.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle market's rally has again been paused as traders seem to be reluctant to advance the contracts any higher until they see what the week's cash cattle market is going to accomplish. There are currently some bids on the table with live cattle in Texas being bid at $195, and bids in Nebraska surfacing at $195 live and $310 dressed. The feeder cattle complex is again following the live cattle market as its uncertain that it can challenge resistance levels without the full commitment of traders and better support from the fed cash cattle market. Unless the live cattle complex begins to trade higher, then feeders may follow suit, but without the live cattle market's support higher trade isn't likely.Thankfully, Thursday has lent the lean hog complex all sorts of good news as the morning's export report was fruitful and news broke mid-morning that President Trump plans to delay tariffs on most goods from Mexico for another month. And with U.S. hog producers concerned about keeping a good working relationship open between the U.S. and Mexico as the market needs that export channel, this announcement is found to be a win.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/06145624/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

Commodity closing markets Thursday

Farmer members of the American Soybean Association do not support using tariffs, which now threaten important soybean export markets and raise input costs for farmers, as a negotiation tactic. “Farmers are frustrated,” said Caleb Ragland, ASA president and soy farmer from Kentucky. “Tariffs are not something to take lightly and have fun with.” He says not only do they hit family businesses square in the wallet, but they rock a core tenet on which trading relationships are built, and that is reliability. 

Farmer members of the American Soybean Association do not support using tariffs, which now threaten important soybean export markets and raise input costs for farmers, as a negotiation tactic. “Farmers are frustrated,” said Caleb Ragland, ASA president and soy farmer from Kentucky. “Tariffs are not something to take lightly and have fun with.” He says not only do they hit family businesses square in the wallet, but they rock a core tenet on which trading relationships are built, and that is reliability.

Soy farmers are frustrated with tariffs

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer climbed to 152 in February, 11 points higher than January. An improvement in the current situation on U.S. farms drove the stronger sentiment among producers. The Current Conditions Index hit 137, 28 points higher than January. The Future Expectations Index rose only three points in February to 159. This month’s Current Conditions Index capped a long climb from late summer and early fall 2024 when the index bottomed out at 76.

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer climbed to 152 in February, 11 points higher than January. An improvement in the current situation on U.S. farms drove the stronger sentiment among producers. The Current Conditions Index hit 137, 28 points higher than January. The Future Expectations Index rose only three points in February to 159. This month’s Current Conditions Index capped a long climb from late summer and early fall 2024 when the index bottomed out at 76.

Farmer sentiment rises in February

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/05142006/30001-closing-markets.wav">Click HERE for audio</a>

May corn closed up 4 1/4 cents and July corn was up 4 cents. May soybeans closed up 12 3/4 cents and July soybeans were up 11 1/4 cents. May KC wheat closed up 8 1/2 cents, May Chicago wheat was up 11 1/2 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was up 8 cents.

The U.S. Dollar Index is down 1.39 at 104.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 497.0 points at 43,091.0. April gold is up $6.20 at $2,926.80, May silver is up $0.81 at $33.20 and May copper is up $0.2525. April crude oil is down $2.12 at $66.14, April ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0516, April RBOB gasoline is down $0.0642 and April natural gas is up $0.107.

May corn futures traded 4 1/4 cents higher, closing at $4.55 3/4, while new-crop December futures closed at $4.46 3/4, unchanged. It was overall a two-sided session for corn futures as traders kept a lid on upward momentum until they see concrete evidence of a trade compromise in North America. However, traders were equally unwilling to allow prices to slip back below trendline support just above $4.50, as midmorning selling was met with strong buying interest below that level. $4.60 to $4.63 is the immediate bullish target, which was where the bounce stalled Wednesday. But all things considered, just posting a positive session to snap the streak of eight losing sessions is certainly a step in the right direction.

The Energy Information Administration updated the market on ethanol production for the final week of February at a very solid 1.093 million barrels per day (bpd), a week-over-week increase of 12,000 bpd. This keeps ethanol production through the corn marketing year thus far at a 4.2% increase year-over-year. Rough math would imply corn usage for February near 430 million bushels (mb), a 6% drop from the USDA January usage estimate of 457 mb, which isn't totally unreasonable considering fewer days in the month. The January USDA estimate released Monday of this week was well below what I was personally forecasting. It is worth noting as well that USDA raised their December corn usage estimate by roughly 6 mb in Monday's report. All-in-all, the ethanol industry is maintaining a strong showing thus far through the 2024-25 marketing year.

The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $4.13, a steady basis Wednesday would indicate the index to be near to $4.17.

May soybeans closed up 12 3/4 cents, to $10.11 3/4 while new-crop November soybeans closed up 6 cents, at $10.09 1/2. May soybeans posted a strong double-digit move higher Wednesday to put a halt to their five-day skid. $9.90 to $10.00 reaffirmed itself as a solid support level for soybean prices currently. The upside medium-term target for a reversal would be the 100-day moving average for May futures near $10.29 1/2.

While tariff headlines have dominated the market over the past week -- and rightfully so -- the weather in southern Brazil is developing into a story with some bullish potential which is perhaps being overshadowed at present by the ongoing broader economic concerns. The past week has been hot with spotty rainfall with the next 1- to 2-week forecasts calling for a continuation of these conditions of spotty rainfall especially in the very far south. Brazilian extension agency EMATER, located in southernmost state Rio Grande Do Sul (which accounts for 16% of Brazilian soy production), estimated the percent of soybeans filling pods as of last Thursday at 56% and while there has been relief over the last week, the immediate forecast is calling for mostly dry conditions with better chances in the 7- to 15-day window.

In Monday's Fats and Oils report, the USDA confirmed total January soybeans crushed in the U.S. at 212.65 mb, in line with expectations given the strong NOPA indication. Overall, the crush industry continues to demonstrate record pace, now running 7% above 2023-24 through January. This would imply a total year crush of 2.445 billion bushels (bb) versus the current USDA estimate of 2.410 bb, assuming steady pace throughout the remainder of the marketing year.

The DTN National Soybean Index finished Monday at $9.31. A steady basis Wednesday would indicate the index to be near $9.44

Wheat markets got a much needed boost midweek, finding strength on the waning U.S. dollar to move higher with May Kansas City futures closing at $5.57, up 8 1/2 cents. May futures are also now 15 1/2 cents above the new contract low set on Tuesday as buyers have shown interest near these long-term support levels around $5.50. Currently the HRW market did hit some resistance at $5.60 so that stands as a bullish objective, but beyond that the convergence of the 50- and 100-day moving averages near $5.82 is a reasonable medium-term target should trade concerns ease over the foreseeable future.

Wednesday's winter wheat condition updates were mixed for the most part, with the cold air through the middle part of February likely causing some damage especially in the Northern Plains where good-to-excellent conditions dropped in Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Nebraska and South Dakota are in particularly rough shape with only 23% and 16% of their respective crops rated good to excellent. On the other hand, eastern Colorado and Kansas conditions showed improvement through February, with Kansas' crop now rated 54% good to excellent versus 50% in the early February release. Meanwhile in the east, soft red growing areas remain in good condition for the most part, although February did see declines across Illinois and Indiana. Overall, of the nine states I tracked that release percentile information, the average drop in good-to-excellent ratings from this time in 2024 was 8 percentage points, mainly driven by sharply lower conditions in the north-central plains.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/05142006/30001-closing-markets.wav">Click HERE for audio</a>GENERAL COMMENTS:May corn closed up 4 1/4 cents and July corn was up 4 cents. May soybeans closed up 12 3/4 cents and July soybeans were up 11 1/4 cents. May KC wheat closed up 8 1/2 cents, May Chicago wheat was up 11 1/2 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was up 8 cents.The U.S. Dollar Index is down 1.39 at 104.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 497.0 points at 43,091.0. April gold is up $6.20 at $2,926.80, May silver is up $0.81 at $33.20 and May copper is up $0.2525. April crude oil is down $2.12 at $66.14, April ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0516, April RBOB gasoline is down $0.0642 and April natural gas is up $0.107.CORN:May corn futures traded 4 1/4 cents higher, closing at $4.55 3/4, while new-crop December futures closed at $4.46 3/4, unchanged. It was overall a two-sided session for corn futures as traders kept a lid on upward momentum until they see concrete evidence of a trade compromise in North America. However, traders were equally unwilling to allow prices to slip back below trendline support just above $4.50, as midmorning selling was met with strong buying interest below that level. $4.60 to $4.63 is the immediate bullish target, which was where the bounce stalled Wednesday. But all things considered, just posting a positive session to snap the streak of eight losing sessions is certainly a step in the right direction.The Energy Information Administration updated the market on ethanol production for the final week of February at a very solid 1.093 million barrels per day (bpd), a week-over-week increase of 12,000 bpd. This keeps ethanol production through the corn marketing year thus far at a 4.2% increase year-over-year. Rough math would imply corn usage for February near 430 million bushels (mb), a 6% drop from the USDA January usage estimate of 457 mb, which isn't totally unreasonable considering fewer days in the month. The January USDA estimate released Monday of this week was well below what I was personally forecasting. It is worth noting as well that USDA raised their December corn usage estimate by roughly 6 mb in Monday's report. All-in-all, the ethanol industry is maintaining a strong showing thus far through the 2024-25 marketing year.The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $4.13, a steady basis Wednesday would indicate the index to be near to $4.17.SOYBEANS:May soybeans closed up 12 3/4 cents, to $10.11 3/4 while new-crop November soybeans closed up 6 cents, at $10.09 1/2. May soybeans posted a strong double-digit move higher Wednesday to put a halt to their five-day skid. $9.90 to $10.00 reaffirmed itself as a solid support level for soybean prices currently. The upside medium-term target for a reversal would be the 100-day moving average for May futures near $10.29 1/2.While tariff headlines have dominated the market over the past week -- and rightfully so -- the weather in southern Brazil is developing into a story with some bullish potential which is perhaps being overshadowed at present by the ongoing broader economic concerns. The past week has been hot with spotty rainfall with the next 1- to 2-week forecasts calling for a continuation of these conditions of spotty rainfall especially in the very far south. Brazilian extension agency EMATER, located in southernmost state Rio Grande Do Sul (which accounts for 16% of Brazilian soy production), estimated the percent of soybeans filling pods as of last Thursday at 56% and while there has been relief over the last week, the immediate forecast is calling for mostly dry conditions with better chances in the 7- to 15-day window.In Monday's Fats and Oils report, the USDA confirmed total January soybeans crushed in the U.S. at 212.65 mb, in line with expectations given the strong NOPA indication. Overall, the crush industry continues to demonstrate record pace, now running 7% above 2023-24 through January. This would imply a total year crush of 2.445 billion bushels (bb) versus the current USDA estimate of 2.410 bb, assuming steady pace throughout the remainder of the marketing year.The DTN National Soybean Index finished Monday at $9.31. A steady basis Wednesday would indicate the index to be near $9.44WHEAT:Wheat markets got a much needed boost midweek, finding strength on the waning U.S. dollar to move higher with May Kansas City futures closing at $5.57, up 8 1/2 cents. May futures are also now 15 1/2 cents above the new contract low set on Tuesday as buyers have shown interest near these long-term support levels around $5.50. Currently the HRW market did hit some resistance at $5.60 so that stands as a bullish objective, but beyond that the convergence of the 50- and 100-day moving averages near $5.82 is a reasonable medium-term target should trade concerns ease over the foreseeable future.Wednesday's winter wheat condition updates were mixed for the most part, with the cold air through the middle part of February likely causing some damage especially in the Northern Plains where good-to-excellent conditions dropped in Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Nebraska and South Dakota are in particularly rough shape with only 23% and 16% of their respective crops rated good to excellent. On the other hand, eastern Colorado and Kansas conditions showed improvement through February, with Kansas' crop now rated 54% good to excellent versus 50% in the early February release. Meanwhile in the east, soft red growing areas remain in good condition for the most part, although February did see declines across Illinois and Indiana. Overall, of the nine states I tracked that release percentile information, the average drop in good-to-excellent ratings from this time in 2024 was 8 percentage points, mainly driven by sharply lower conditions in the north-central plains.

Closing Commodity Markets for Wednesday March 5th, 2025

The National Association of Wheat Growers celebrated the organization’s 75th anniversary during the 2025 Commodity Classic.

 “This event recognizes the hard work of those who have been part of the National Association of Wheat Grower’s history and reaffirms our ongoing commitment to ensuring that wheat growers and rural America can continue to thrive for generations to come,” said NAWG CEO Chandler Goule. 

The 75th-anniversary celebration brought together current and past leaders of the organization to reflect on its accomplishments and look ahead. During the event, the group discussed the future of wheat advocacy, including the continued efforts to get a long-term farm bill that meets the needs of today, including a stronger safety net.

 “As we look back at the past 75 years, it’s amazing to see what NAWG has accomplished,” says Keeff Felty, Wheat Growers President. “Our work is more important than ever to move the industry forward.”

The National Association of Wheat Growers celebrated the organization’s 75th anniversary during the 2025 Commodity Classic. “This event recognizes the hard work of those who have been part of the National Association of Wheat Grower’s history and reaffirms our ongoing commitment to ensuring that wheat growers and rural America can continue to thrive for generations to come,” said NAWG CEO Chandler Goule. The 75th-anniversary celebration brought together current and past leaders of the organization to reflect on its accomplishments and look ahead. During the event, the group discussed the future of wheat advocacy, including the continued efforts to get a long-term farm bill that meets the needs of today, including a stronger safety net. “As we look back at the past 75 years, it’s amazing to see what NAWG has accomplished,” says Keeff Felty, Wheat Growers President. “Our work is more important than ever to move the industry forward.”

Wheat growers celebrate 75 years

The USDA says inspections of corn and wheat for offshore delivery rose last week while soybean assessments dropped in the seven days ending on February 27. 

Corn inspections totaled 1.35 million metric tons, which is up from 1.17 million the week prior and the 1.15 million tons examined during the same week last year. 

Wheat assessments rose narrowly to 389,600 metric tons from 387,855 tons the previous week. That’s also higher than the 358,298 tons inspected at the same point in 2024.

 Soybean inspections totaled 695,158 metric tons, down from 878,615 a week earlier and the 1.16 million tons from the same week last year. 

Since the marketing year began, USDA has inspected 27.3 million metric tons of corn compared to 20.7 million a year earlier, 37.6 million tons of soybeans, up from 34.3 million, and 15.6 million metric tons of wheat, also higher than the previous year.

The USDA says inspections of corn and wheat for offshore delivery rose last week while soybean assessments dropped in the seven days ending on February 27. Corn inspections totaled 1.35 million metric tons, which is up from 1.17 million the week prior and the 1.15 million tons examined during the same week last year. Wheat assessments rose narrowly to 389,600 metric tons from 387,855 tons the previous week. That’s also higher than the 358,298 tons inspected at the same point in 2024. Soybean inspections totaled 695,158 metric tons, down from 878,615 a week earlier and the 1.16 million tons from the same week last year. Since the marketing year began, USDA has inspected 27.3 million metric tons of corn compared to 20.7 million a year earlier, 37.6 million tons of soybeans, up from 34.3 million, and 15.6 million metric tons of wheat, also higher than the previous year.-NAFB

Corn and wheat export inspections improve

&nbsp;USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says farm labor costs have reached in some cases more than 50 percent of expenses but still defends the president’s mass deportation policy.

Rollins makes no excuse for backing the president on reversing mass migration to the U.S.

“The entire industry is talking about President Trump’s promise, which I fully support, of securing the border and mass deportation.”

But Rollins is caught between that support and her role advocating for the nation’s farmers.

“I realize a lot of our Ag community is concerned about labor and what President Trump’s vision and execution of that vision very quickly will mean. My message is that listen, he understands the challenges to our community. No one has the backs of our farmers and ranchers more than he does. We will take this one day at a time.” 

She promised that farmers’ voices will be heard in the administration, including on broadening the H2A migrant labor Program.

“I know that the H2A is very helpful and important to many of our producers, but to many like the dairy industry, you can’t milk a cow six months a year. I’ve already been speaking with Lori Chavez-Deremer, who will be our new labor secretary if promoted very soon, and working with Congress on that, too.” 

USDA forecasts labor, seed, taxes, and rent will continue to rise this year, including labor by 3.6 percent, while feed, fertilizer, pesticides, fuel, and interest costs decline.

&nbsp;USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says farm labor costs have reached in some cases more than 50 percent of expenses but still defends the president’s mass deportation policy.Rollins makes no excuse for backing the president on reversing mass migration to the U.S.“The entire industry is talking about President Trump’s promise, which I fully support, of securing the border and mass deportation.”But Rollins is caught between that support and her role advocating for the nation’s farmers.“I realize a lot of our Ag community is concerned about labor and what President Trump’s vision and execution of that vision very quickly will mean. My message is that listen, he understands the challenges to our community. No one has the backs of our farmers and ranchers more than he does. We will take this one day at a time.” She promised that farmers’ voices will be heard in the administration, including on broadening the H2A migrant labor Program.“I know that the H2A is very helpful and important to many of our producers, but to many like the dairy industry, you can’t milk a cow six months a year. I’ve already been speaking with Lori Chavez-Deremer, who will be our new labor secretary if promoted very soon, and working with Congress on that, too.” USDA forecasts labor, seed, taxes, and rent will continue to rise this year, including labor by 3.6 percent, while feed, fertilizer, pesticides, fuel, and interest costs decline.-NAFB

Rollins admits farm labor costs a big problem, but defends Trump’s deportations

Many U.S. ag groups reacted to the President’s decision to implement tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.

 Rob Larew, President of the National Farmers Union, says tariffs will have serious consequences for American agriculture. 

“We’re already facing significant economic uncertainty, and this only adds to the strain,” Larew said. 

Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of the American Fertilizer Institute, points out that 85 percent of America’s potash comes from Canada. 

“It’s an irreplaceable component of modern agricultural production,” Rosenbusch said. 

National Corn Growers Association President Kenneth Hartman, Jr., says farmers are already facing a troubling economic landscape due to rising input costs and declining corn prices. 

“We ask the President to quickly negotiate agreements with Mexico, Canada, and China that will benefit America’s farmers and address issues important to the U.S.,” Hartman added. 

American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall says tariffs and retaliatory responses will take a toll on rural America.

Many U.S. ag groups reacted to the President’s decision to implement tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Rob Larew, President of the National Farmers Union, says tariffs will have serious consequences for American agriculture. “We’re already facing significant economic uncertainty, and this only adds to the strain,” Larew said. Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of the American Fertilizer Institute, points out that 85 percent of America’s potash comes from Canada. “It’s an irreplaceable component of modern agricultural production,” Rosenbusch said. National Corn Growers Association President Kenneth Hartman, Jr., says farmers are already facing a troubling economic landscape due to rising input costs and declining corn prices. “We ask the President to quickly negotiate agreements with Mexico, Canada, and China that will benefit America’s farmers and address issues important to the U.S.,” Hartman added. American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall says tariffs and retaliatory responses will take a toll on rural America.-NAFB

Ag groups react to tariff implementation

President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports went live at 12:01 am on Tuesday. 

The 25 percent tariffs on imports from America’s neighbors were joined by an additional ten percent duty on Chinese goods, bringing that total to 20 percent. Reuters says the tariff actions launched new conflicts with the top three U.S. trading partners and may interrupt more than $2 trillion in two-way trade. 

China immediately responded, implementing additional 10-15 percent tariffs on certain U.S. imports and a series of new export restrictions for designated U.S. companies. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa would respond with immediate 25 percent tariffs on $21 billion worth of U.S. imports and another $86.2 billion if the tariffs are still in place in 21 days. 

“Tariffs will interrupt a very successful trading relationship,” said Trudeau, adding that they violate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement signed during Trump’s first term.

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2025/3/1741037134328.png" alt="Image from White House video" />
 <figcaption>Image from White House video</figcaption>
 </figure>President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports went live at 12:01 am on Tuesday. The 25 percent tariffs on imports from America’s neighbors were joined by an additional ten percent duty on Chinese goods, bringing that total to 20 percent. Reuters says the tariff actions launched new conflicts with the top three U.S. trading partners and may interrupt more than $2 trillion in two-way trade. China immediately responded, implementing additional 10-15 percent tariffs on certain U.S. imports and a series of new export restrictions for designated U.S. companies. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa would respond with immediate 25 percent tariffs on $21 billion worth of U.S. imports and another $86.2 billion if the tariffs are still in place in 21 days. “Tariffs will interrupt a very successful trading relationship,” said Trudeau, adding that they violate the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement signed during Trump’s first term.-NAFB

Trade wars underway as U.S. Tariffs take effect

U.S. pork exports to Central America were record-large last year, breaking previous highs in both volume and value. Lucia Ruano represents the U.S. Meat Export Federation in Central America. Ruano says consumer education programs, made possible through support from USDA and the National Pork Board, have helped position U.S. pork as a high-quality, center-of-the-plate protein. The record performance was achieved despite some obstacles in Panama, which has imposed a cap on pork imports that is inconsistent with its obligations under the U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement. 

This has frustrated importers in Panama and led to some product shortages, including pork ribs sought by the country’s restaurants. U.S. pork has full, duty-free access to all other Central American countries under a separate Free Trade Agreement. In 2024, pork exports to Central America increased 21 percent, reaching 166,000 metric tons. Export value climbed 29 percent to $523 million.

U.S. pork exports to Central America were record-large last year, breaking previous highs in both volume and value. Lucia Ruano represents the U.S. Meat Export Federation in Central America. Ruano says consumer education programs, made possible through support from USDA and the National Pork Board, have helped position U.S. pork as a high-quality, center-of-the-plate protein. The record performance was achieved despite some obstacles in Panama, which has imposed a cap on pork imports that is inconsistent with its obligations under the U.S.-Panama Trade Promotion Agreement. This has frustrated importers in Panama and led to some product shortages, including pork ribs sought by the country’s restaurants. U.S. pork has full, duty-free access to all other Central American countries under a separate Free Trade Agreement. In 2024, pork exports to Central America increased 21 percent, reaching 166,000 metric tons. Export value climbed 29 percent to $523 million.

U.S. pork exports to Central America reach record levels

Lenders responding to a fourth-quarter Ag Credit Survey by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve said farm incomes decreased broadly at the end of 2024. The outlook for the first quarter of 2025 was pessimistic, with survey respondents expecting a further decrease in incomes. District-wide, 89 percent of the agricultural lenders surveyed said incomes decreased in the third quarter from a year earlier, while only four percent reported increased incomes. 

Capital expenditures also dropped, with 69 percent of respondents reporting decreased investment in equipment and buildings from a year ago, though farm household purchases increased on balance. With weaker cash-flows, loan demand increased, while the rate of loan repayment dropped, and loan renewal and extension activity increased. The district average cash rent for non-irrigated land decreased by almost two percent from a year ago, while irrigated land rents fell almost four percent. In contrast, cash rents for ranchland increased almost five percent.

Lenders responding to a fourth-quarter Ag Credit Survey by the Minneapolis Federal Reserve said farm incomes decreased broadly at the end of 2024. The outlook for the first quarter of 2025 was pessimistic, with survey respondents expecting a further decrease in incomes. District-wide, 89 percent of the agricultural lenders surveyed said incomes decreased in the third quarter from a year earlier, while only four percent reported increased incomes. Capital expenditures also dropped, with 69 percent of respondents reporting decreased investment in equipment and buildings from a year ago, though farm household purchases increased on balance. With weaker cash-flows, loan demand increased, while the rate of loan repayment dropped, and loan renewal and extension activity increased. The district average cash rent for non-irrigated land decreased by almost two percent from a year ago, while irrigated land rents fell almost four percent. In contrast, cash rents for ranchland increased almost five percent.

Minneapolis fed survey shows dropping farm income

May corn closed down 4 3/4 cents and July corn was down 4 1/2 cents. May soybeans closed down 12 1/2 cents and July soybeans were down 12 cents. May KC wheat closed down 13 1/2 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 11 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was down 11 1/4 cents.

After months of speculation, President Trump's promised tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China went into effect Tuesday, officially setting off the latest escalation in the spat between the U.S. and its three largest ag trading partners. The silver lining -- if there is one -- is that at least at this point the market has concrete policy to trade, rather than speculation. Canada and China were both quick to retaliate with tariffs of their own, with Canada announcing an immediate 25% tariff on $30 billion worth of U.S. goods as outlined in the early February release from the government. This list includes U.S. products such as fruits and vegetables, alcoholic beverages, and ag products such as wheat, canola, and other small grains. Meanwhile, retaliatory tariffs from China have targeted U.S. corn and wheat for a 15% tariff, with a 10% duty on U.S. soybeans, as well as beef and pork products. Mexican President Sheinbaum announced Mexico's action will be announced in a press conference on Sunday. Unsurprisingly, Tuesday's whirlwind had equity markets tumbling, as investors grow increasingly anxious of a potential economic slowdown.

The live cattle complex weathered today's chaos amid 25% tariffs being imposed on Mexico and Canada rather well. Is it because traders believe imported beef/cattle from the two countries will carry enough of a price penalty that packers could need more domestic supply? One can only speculate at this point. However, seeing the live cattle complex trade well following the pressure endured on Friday is relieving.

Although the live cattle contracts seem somewhat unphased through the chaotic trade details of today, the feeder cattle contracts are now traded lower right up to the closing bell before muddling their way into the green. And though buyer demand is strong in the countryside, this week's pressure is coming from technical factors, which seem to be the most relevant factors on traders' minds currently.

As fully expected, the lean hog complex is trading yet again substantially lower as traders attempt to grasp what retaliatory actions are going to come from Mexico specifically following this morning's 25% tariff that was invoked on Mexico and Canada. And until the trade chatter simmers, it's unlikely that much else will matter to market participants as this is the biggest line item for today, and potentially this week.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/04142446/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

GRAINS:May corn closed down 4 3/4 cents and July corn was down 4 1/2 cents. May soybeans closed down 12 1/2 cents and July soybeans were down 12 cents. May KC wheat closed down 13 1/2 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 11 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was down 11 1/4 cents.After months of speculation, President Trump's promised tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China went into effect Tuesday, officially setting off the latest escalation in the spat between the U.S. and its three largest ag trading partners. The silver lining -- if there is one -- is that at least at this point the market has concrete policy to trade, rather than speculation. Canada and China were both quick to retaliate with tariffs of their own, with Canada announcing an immediate 25% tariff on $30 billion worth of U.S. goods as outlined in the early February release from the government. This list includes U.S. products such as fruits and vegetables, alcoholic beverages, and ag products such as wheat, canola, and other small grains. Meanwhile, retaliatory tariffs from China have targeted U.S. corn and wheat for a 15% tariff, with a 10% duty on U.S. soybeans, as well as beef and pork products. Mexican President Sheinbaum announced Mexico's action will be announced in a press conference on Sunday. Unsurprisingly, Tuesday's whirlwind had equity markets tumbling, as investors grow increasingly anxious of a potential economic slowdown.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex weathered today's chaos amid 25% tariffs being imposed on Mexico and Canada rather well. Is it because traders believe imported beef/cattle from the two countries will carry enough of a price penalty that packers could need more domestic supply? One can only speculate at this point. However, seeing the live cattle complex trade well following the pressure endured on Friday is relieving.Although the live cattle contracts seem somewhat unphased through the chaotic trade details of today, the feeder cattle contracts are now traded lower right up to the closing bell before muddling their way into the green. And though buyer demand is strong in the countryside, this week's pressure is coming from technical factors, which seem to be the most relevant factors on traders' minds currently.As fully expected, the lean hog complex is trading yet again substantially lower as traders attempt to grasp what retaliatory actions are going to come from Mexico specifically following this morning's 25% tariff that was invoked on Mexico and Canada. And until the trade chatter simmers, it's unlikely that much else will matter to market participants as this is the biggest line item for today, and potentially this week.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/03/04142446/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

Agriculture