BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/jennifer-shutt/">JENNIFER SHUTT</a>

WASHINGTON — Nearly 30 million Americans by Thursday had cast their ballots ahead of Election Day, with 13 million choosing to vote in person at early voting centers and another 17 million submitting mail-in ballots, according to data from the University of Florida’s election lab.

The total number of early votes is expected to increase significantly in the days leading up to Election Day on Nov. 5.

Voters will determine whether Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris or Republican candidate Donald Trump occupies the Oval Office for the next four years. On the national level, they’ll also decide which political party controls the U.S. House and U.S. Senate for the next two years.

The nonpartisan Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics say the presidential race is still very much up for grabs, rating the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as toss-ups.

Early voting is higher in several of those purple states than some of their counterparts, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/" target="_blank">data</a>&nbsp;from the University of Florida’s election lab.

Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia have each received at least 1.2 million early ballots, while California, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas have all received at least 2 million early votes.

The University of Florida data shows that among states that disclose party breakdowns, Democrats have cast nearly 42% of ballots while Republicans have submitted 35% and other voters have sent in about 23%.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball projects that Republicans are at least slightly favored to win 212 House seats, with Democrats holding onto at least 209 seats in that chamber. Another 14 races are rated as toss-ups, meaning control of the chamber is still far from decided.

“Overall, our ratings show just 7 Republican-held Toss-ups and 7 Democratic-held Toss-ups, for 14 total,” Managing Editor Kyle Kondik and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman&nbsp;<a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/rating-changes-pushing-house-toss-ups-nebraska-senate-to-leans-republican/" target="_blank">wrote in the latest update</a>, released Thursday morning.

“Splitting the Toss-ups down the middle would produce a 219-216 Republican House, so the ratings technically have the Republicans very narrowly ahead—but neither side is favored in the race for the House majority, even at this late stage,” they wrote.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman Suzan DelBene of Washington state told reporters Thursday the organization has several voter protection efforts underway to ensure Americans who want to vote have an opportunity to do so.

Those efforts won’t stop when the polls close on Election Day, but will continue as absentee ballots are counted, she said in a virtual meeting with the Regional Reporters Association.

“So this is obviously a priority for us, and some of these races are very, very close, so we want to make sure we’re there to help make sure ballots are counted across the country,” DelBene said.

Control of the House might not be announced on election night, or for several days afterward. It took more than a week after the 2022 midterm elections before The<a href="https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-house-control-79475a4fc11e4375cd0dded651b9eede" target="_blank">&nbsp;Associated Press called control&nbsp;</a>for the GOP.

The Senate is leaning slightly toward Republican control, with GOP candidates on track to pick up seats in West Virginia and Montana.

Sabato’s has, however, moved Nebraska’s rating from likely Republican to leans Republican, “as the Republican cavalry has had to ride in to help” incumbent GOP Sen. Deb Fischer maintain her seat against independent challenger Dan Osborn.

“Unlike Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL), the only other two GOP incumbents in races that we rate as something other than Safe Republican, Fischer has, arguably, never had to run in a legitimately competitive statewide general election,” Kondik and Coleman wrote.

<a href="https://vote.gov/guide-to-voting#earlyvoting" target="_blank">Early in-person voting</a>&nbsp;as well as&nbsp;<a href="https://vote.gov/guide-to-voting#mail-absentee" target="_blank">who is eligible for mail-in ballots</a>&nbsp;is determined by each state, meaning when and where voters can cast early ballots varies considerably.

All states are required to host in-person voting on Election Day, scheduled for Nov. 5. More information about voting can be found&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vote.gov/" target="_blank">here</a>.

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/10/1729870329996.png" alt="Voters in line this week in Sedgwick County-photos courtesy KWCH" />
 <figcaption>Voters in line this week in Sedgwick County-photos courtesy KWCH</figcaption>
 </figure>BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/jennifer-shutt/">JENNIFER SHUTT</a>WASHINGTON — Nearly 30 million Americans by Thursday had cast their ballots ahead of Election Day, with 13 million choosing to vote in person at early voting centers and another 17 million submitting mail-in ballots, according to data from the University of Florida’s election lab.The total number of early votes is expected to increase significantly in the days leading up to Election Day on Nov. 5.Voters will determine whether Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris or Republican candidate Donald Trump occupies the Oval Office for the next four years. On the national level, they’ll also decide which political party controls the U.S. House and U.S. Senate for the next two years.The nonpartisan Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics say the presidential race is still very much up for grabs, rating the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as toss-ups.Early voting is higher in several of those purple states than some of their counterparts, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/" target="_blank">data</a>&nbsp;from the University of Florida’s election lab.<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/10/1729870269518.png" alt="Photo courtesy KWCH" />
 <figcaption>Photo courtesy KWCH</figcaption>
 </figure>Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia have each received at least 1.2 million early ballots, while California, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas have all received at least 2 million early votes.The University of Florida data shows that among states that disclose party breakdowns, Democrats have cast nearly 42% of ballots while Republicans have submitted 35% and other voters have sent in about 23%.<h2>U.S. House control up in the air</h2>Sabato’s Crystal Ball projects that Republicans are at least slightly favored to win 212 House seats, with Democrats holding onto at least 209 seats in that chamber. Another 14 races are rated as toss-ups, meaning control of the chamber is still far from decided.“Overall, our ratings show just 7 Republican-held Toss-ups and 7 Democratic-held Toss-ups, for 14 total,” Managing Editor Kyle Kondik and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman&nbsp;<a href="https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/rating-changes-pushing-house-toss-ups-nebraska-senate-to-leans-republican/" target="_blank">wrote in the latest update</a>, released Thursday morning.“Splitting the Toss-ups down the middle would produce a 219-216 Republican House, so the ratings technically have the Republicans very narrowly ahead—but neither side is favored in the race for the House majority, even at this late stage,” they wrote.Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman Suzan DelBene of Washington state told reporters Thursday the organization has several voter protection efforts underway to ensure Americans who want to vote have an opportunity to do so.Those efforts won’t stop when the polls close on Election Day, but will continue as absentee ballots are counted, she said in a virtual meeting with the Regional Reporters Association.“So this is obviously a priority for us, and some of these races are very, very close, so we want to make sure we’re there to help make sure ballots are counted across the country,” DelBene said.Control of the House might not be announced on election night, or for several days afterward. It took more than a week after the 2022 midterm elections before The<a href="https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-house-control-79475a4fc11e4375cd0dded651b9eede" target="_blank">&nbsp;Associated Press called control&nbsp;</a>for the GOP.<h2>U.S. Senate tilts toward GOP</h2>The Senate is leaning slightly toward Republican control, with GOP candidates on track to pick up seats in West Virginia and Montana.Sabato’s has, however, moved Nebraska’s rating from likely Republican to leans Republican, “as the Republican cavalry has had to ride in to help” incumbent GOP Sen. Deb Fischer maintain her seat against independent challenger Dan Osborn.“Unlike Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL), the only other two GOP incumbents in races that we rate as something other than Safe Republican, Fischer has, arguably, never had to run in a legitimately competitive statewide general election,” Kondik and Coleman wrote.<a href="https://vote.gov/guide-to-voting#earlyvoting" target="_blank">Early in-person voting</a>&nbsp;as well as&nbsp;<a href="https://vote.gov/guide-to-voting#mail-absentee" target="_blank">who is eligible for mail-in ballots</a>&nbsp;is determined by each state, meaning when and where voters can cast early ballots varies considerably.All states are required to host in-person voting on Election Day, scheduled for Nov. 5. More information about voting can be found&nbsp;<a href="https://www.vote.gov/" target="_blank">here</a>.

Millions of Americans flock to early voting, in person and via mail

&nbsp;JACKSON COUNTY, Kan. —Law enforcement are investigating a rural Kansas burglary and have three suspects in custody.

Just before 9p.m. October 19, the Jackson County Sheriff’s Office received a report of a burglary in progress in the 13000 Block of 162nd Road near Mayetta, according to Sheriff Tim Morse.

  Jackson County Deputies and the Hoyt Police Department responded to the area.

Three subjects were located and arrested by law enforcement.  Tanner Reese Brooke, 19; Dustin James Brooke, 20 and Jon Alan Wilson, 21, all of Topeka were all arrested and booked into the Jackson County Jail on requested charges of burglary.

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/10/1729624206116.png" alt="Dustin Brooke photo Jackson Co." />
 <figcaption>Dustin Brooke photo Jackson Co.</figcaption>
 </figure>&nbsp;JACKSON COUNTY, Kan. —Law enforcement are investigating a rural Kansas burglary and have three suspects in custody.Just before 9p.m. October 19, the Jackson County Sheriff’s Office received a report of a burglary in progress in the 13000 Block of 162nd Road near Mayetta, according to Sheriff Tim Morse.<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/10/1729624274729.png" alt="Wilson photo Jackson Co." />
 <figcaption>Wilson photo Jackson Co.</figcaption>
 </figure> Jackson County Deputies and the Hoyt Police Department responded to the area.<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/10/1729624156916.png" alt="Tammer Brooke photo Jackson Co." />
 <figcaption>Tammer Brooke photo Jackson Co.</figcaption>
 </figure>Three subjects were located and arrested by law enforcement. Tanner Reese Brooke, 19; Dustin James Brooke, 20 and Jon Alan Wilson, 21, all of Topeka were all arrested and booked into the Jackson County Jail on requested charges of burglary.

Sheriff: 3 captured during rural Kansas burglary

BY:&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/rudi-keller/">RUDI KELLER</a> <a href="https://missouriindependent.com/briefs/missouri-senate-committee-advances-bill-to-ban-texting-while-driving/">Missouri Independent</a>

The final pre-election fundraising reports for Missouri’s U.S. Senate race show Democrat Lucas Kunce&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/2024/10/16/democrat-lucas-kunce-outraises-missouri-republican-sen-josh-hawley/">continuing to outpace</a>&nbsp;incumbent Republican Josh Hawley, bringing his total since the start of 2023 to almost three times his rival.

In the period from Oct. 1 to Oct. 16, Kunce took in $1.6 million, with two committees raising money for Hawley taking in&nbsp; just under $1 million. Since the start of 2023, Kunce has raised $18.9 million compared to $7.4 million for Hawley.

Thanks to fundraising that occurred before Jan. 1, 2023, Hawley continued to hold a cash advantage in the latest filings, with $1.3 million on hand as the period closed compared to $427,729 for Kunce.

The cash advantage allowed Hawley to buy nearly $500,000 of television advertising for the final 10 days of the campaign, while Kunce has yet to make his purchases for the race’s homestretch. Kunce and Hawley are the only candidates in any race who have advertised on television continually since the August primary.

The two are about even on broadcast spending, tracking by The Independent shows.

Hawley has laid out $5 million and a PAC supporting him, Show Me Strong, adding $2.6 million. Kunce has spent $6.7 million on broadcast ads and a PAC backing him, Patriots Prevail, has spent just under $300,000.

Kunce has a big edge in online and direct mail spending. He reported $2.7 million in online advertising since the primary and $1.6 million for direct mail. Hawley has spent just $15,000 on digital ads and $11,075 on direct mail.

A third candidate who formed a new political party, Jared Young, reported raising $14,061 in the two weeks covered by the report, bringing his total to just under $1 million.Young has been&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/2024/10/04/jared-young-hopes-to-build-momentum-for-third-party-senate-bid-with-jack-danforths-help/">traveling the state</a>&nbsp;for his campaign but his advertising budget has been limited to online promotions, with $8,387 spent on Facebook and $17,707 through Google.

In the only other federal campaign where both candidates are running broadcast ads, U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner, a Republican from St. Louis County, continued to outraise Democratic nominee Ray Hartmann as she seeks to retain her 2nd Congressional District seat.

Wagner, who was sitting on a $3.2 million bank account on Oct.16, raised $113,293 in the period, compared to $55,547 for Hartman. Wagner has spent only $18,696 on broadcast ads, all on radio, while Hartmann has purchased $60,000 in television ads.

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/4/1713523091389.png" alt=" U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, left, and Democrat Lucas Kunce (phots by Drew Angerer/Getty Images and Madeline Carter/Missouri Independent)." />
 <figcaption> U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, left, and Democrat Lucas Kunce (phots by Drew Angerer/Getty Images and Madeline Carter/Missouri Independent).</figcaption>
 </figure>BY:&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/rudi-keller/">RUDI KELLER</a> <a href="https://missouriindependent.com/briefs/missouri-senate-committee-advances-bill-to-ban-texting-while-driving/">Missouri Independent</a>The final pre-election fundraising reports for Missouri’s U.S. Senate race show Democrat Lucas Kunce&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/2024/10/16/democrat-lucas-kunce-outraises-missouri-republican-sen-josh-hawley/">continuing to outpace</a>&nbsp;incumbent Republican Josh Hawley, bringing his total since the start of 2023 to almost three times his rival.In the period from Oct. 1 to Oct. 16, Kunce took in $1.6 million, with two committees raising money for Hawley taking in&nbsp; just under $1 million. Since the start of 2023, Kunce has raised $18.9 million compared to $7.4 million for Hawley.Thanks to fundraising that occurred before Jan. 1, 2023, Hawley continued to hold a cash advantage in the latest filings, with $1.3 million on hand as the period closed compared to $427,729 for Kunce.The cash advantage allowed Hawley to buy nearly $500,000 of television advertising for the final 10 days of the campaign, while Kunce has yet to make his purchases for the race’s homestretch. Kunce and Hawley are the only candidates in any race who have advertised on television continually since the August primary.The two are about even on broadcast spending, tracking by The Independent shows.Hawley has laid out $5 million and a PAC supporting him, Show Me Strong, adding $2.6 million. Kunce has spent $6.7 million on broadcast ads and a PAC backing him, Patriots Prevail, has spent just under $300,000.Kunce has a big edge in online and direct mail spending. He reported $2.7 million in online advertising since the primary and $1.6 million for direct mail. Hawley has spent just $15,000 on digital ads and $11,075 on direct mail.A third candidate who formed a new political party, Jared Young, reported raising $14,061 in the two weeks covered by the report, bringing his total to just under $1 million.Young has been&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/2024/10/04/jared-young-hopes-to-build-momentum-for-third-party-senate-bid-with-jack-danforths-help/">traveling the state</a>&nbsp;for his campaign but his advertising budget has been limited to online promotions, with $8,387 spent on Facebook and $17,707 through Google.In the only other federal campaign where both candidates are running broadcast ads, U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner, a Republican from St. Louis County, continued to outraise Democratic nominee Ray Hartmann as she seeks to retain her 2nd Congressional District seat.Wagner, who was sitting on a $3.2 million bank account on Oct.16, raised $113,293 in the period, compared to $55,547 for Hartman. Wagner has spent only $18,696 on broadcast ads, all on radio, while Hartmann has purchased $60,000 in television ads.

Lucas Kunce fundraising continues to outpace Josh Hawley in Missouri Senate race

BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://kansasreflector.com/author/akaminski/">ANNA KAMINSKI</a> <a href="https://kansasreflector.com/">Kansas Reflector</a>

TOPEKA — Turnover on the Kansas Board of Education after the November election could tip the board’s balance of power in favor of conservative members.

Half of the board’s 10 seats are up for election. Republicans currently outnumber Democrats seven to three, but some moderate board members aren’t running for reelection, positioning the board for a potential ideological shake-up. All five races are contested, and the 12 candidates are differentiating themselves on such central issues as parental rights, public school funding and school safety ahead of Nov. 5.

The board is tasked with oversight of the Kansas Department of Education and supervision of public schools, but it has little control over funding, a responsibility of the legislative branch.

Two incumbents are running for reelection, and a pair of three-way races could split conservative votes. Many of this election’s Republican candidates align with the current board’s conservative faction on issues like religion in schools, arming teachers and parental involvement in instructional and functional decisions.

At an Oct. 6 forum in Lawrence, a candidate for the northeastern 4th District, Kris Meyer, criticized the four conservative members on the current board who she believes are “seeking to sow distrust across the state of Kansas in our public schools.”

Those four board members — Danny Zeck, Michelle Dombrosky, Cathy Hopkins and Dennis Hershberger — are not up for reelection until 2026.

In the 2nd District, which represents school districts in Johnson and Wyandotte counties, incumbent Melanie Haas, a Democrat and tech executive, is seeking to retain her seat in a three-way race. She is up against Republican challenger Fred Postlewait and an independent, Kiel Corkran. Haas was first elected in 2020 and is the board’s current chair. She was endorsed by the Kansas National Education Association, the state’s public educator union, and she has defended fully funding public schools.

Postlewait, a retired computer systems manager, was inspired to run for the board to address declining ACT scores, which have been on a downward trend since 2014 but saw a sharp drop in 2020.

“The train is off the tracks,” he wrote on his campaign website.

Corkran does not have a campaign website and didn’t respond to Kansas Reflector’s requests for an interview.

In the 4th District in northeastern Kansas, Democrat Ann Mah is vacating her seat on the board after eight years. Republican Connie O’Brien, a former teacher and state representative, and Democrat Meyer, a longtime public school educator and principal, are vying for the position.

O’Brien beat out two other Republican hopefuls in the August Primary after Attorney General Kris Kobach gave her his endorsement, urging conservatives to vote for her.

She said in a video posted to YouTube she’ll focus on changes to vocational and technical education, supporting parental rights and supporting teachers.

O’Brien, who did not respond to Kansas Reflector’s requests for comment, said at the Oct. 6 candidate forum at the Lawrence Public Library she does not support vouchers, adding that private school and home school parents “don’t want government in their face.”

“But you have to wonder why parents march up to the capital every year and ask for those things,” she said.

Meyer told Kansas Reflector she’ll focus on fully funding public education, particularly special education, addressing teacher shortages and retention woes and bolstering student mental health support.

“I want to ensure the state board continues to set clear standards and advocate for policies and funding that guarantee all students receive a quality education,” she said. “This includes pushing back on legislative overreach that could hinder the state board’s constitutional duty.”

In the 6th District, Republican Deena Horst isn’t running for reelection. Democrat Beryl Ann New, a retired director of personnel and equity at Topeka Public Schools, and Republican Bruce Schultz, a retired professor of anatomy and physiology at Kansas State University, are running to represent school districts in north-central and northeastern Kansas, including the cities of Lawrence and Topeka.

If elected, New told Kansas Reflector, her goal is to address poor student performance and safety in schools in her first year.

“I will collaborate with board members to ensure that resources are provided to schools whose students are yet below grade level in reading comprehension, provide funding to ensure that Kansas schools remain safe and secure, and solidly support the full funding of all Kansas schools with 100% of funds going solely to public schools,” New said.

She also said she supports vetted alternative teaching programs to address teacher retention and shortages. At the Oct. 6 forum in Lawrence, New said the principal reason she’s seen teachers leave the profession was inadequate compensation.

Schultz, who didn’t respond to Kansas Reflector’s inquiries, said at the forum he doesn’t think boosting teacher salaries is the right answer to teacher retention issues and shortages. Instead, he favors an approach that builds persistence in teaching, he said.

“We need to reform the system to allow and promote greater community engagement,” he said.

Schultz has campaigned on prioritizing parent involvement in school decisions, focusing education on math, science, language arts and financial literacy and budget efficiency, according to his campaign website.

In the Wichita-area 8th District, Democratic incumbent Betty Arnold, a former Wichita school board member, seeks to hold on to the position she has occupied since 2021. She’s aiming to reevaluate performance measures and outcomes, increase teacher compensation and prioritize student safety.

“I believe in public education and I will continue to support it,” Arnold said in an email. “As the focus shifts away from the support of public education, it is vital to have an advocate that understands public education is a must if we want to continue with all children having access to an education.”

Arnold’s opponent, Republican Jason Carmichael, did not respond to Kansas Reflector’s requests for comment. He&nbsp;<a href="https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2023/11/12/in-kansas-school-board-races-voters-reject-candidates-pushing-culture-war-issues/" target="_blank">lost a bid for a sea</a>t on the Unified School District 259 board in Wichita in 2023. During that election, he ran on the premise that “parents’ rights are the cornerstone” of society,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.kmuw.org/politics/2023-10-19/2023-wichita-school-board-where-do-candidates-stand-on-the-issues" target="_blank">KMUW reported</a>. Carmichael believes in eliminating the U.S. Department of Education, supports teachers who are authorized to carry guns in order to combat an active shooter and opposes mandated vaccination requirements, according to a questionnaire he completed for&nbsp;<a href="https://ivoterguide.com/" target="_blank">iVoterGuide</a>, which is affiliated with Christian political nonprofit&nbsp;<a href="https://afaaction.net/mission" target="_blank">AFA Action</a>.

The 10th District in south-central Kansas is contested in a three-way race. Jeffrey Jarman, a Democrat, Debby Potter, a Republican, and Kent Rowe, an independent, are vying for the position being vacated by moderate Republican Jim McNiece.

Jarman, a communications professor at Wichita State University and member of the Maize public school board, said in an email he will advocate for stable funding and against school vouchers if elected.

“While the Legislature appropriates the funds, there is an important role for the board in advocating for stable funding,” he said. “The current funding formula finally meets the minimum required by the state constitution, but it will expire in 2027. I strongly support extending the formula to provide stability to school districts.”

Jarman said he hopes to support local districts by bettering educational achievement outcomes and allocating existing funds to programs that assist the “most vulnerable students,” he said.

“But,” he added, “the board is divided and decisions about how to best support our students unfortunately are politicized.”

Potter, who did not respond to Kansas Reflector’s requests for comment, homeschooled her own children, and she said she was inspired to run when she considered her grandchildren.

“I want them not to be indoctrinated away from their faith and away from their parents, and I feel like there’s a lot of undermining of the families going on,” she said at a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ub1MbGf7FXI" target="_blank">candidate forum</a>&nbsp;hosted by Republican Women United of Sedgwick County ahead of the August primary election.

She defeated another Republican hopeful in the primary. God is her campaign manager, she said at the forum.

Potter considers herself to be “very conservative, ” she wrote in answers for an iVoterGuide questionnaire. She supports arming licensed teachers, eradicating the federal department of education and is a strong advocate for parental involvement in schools.

“While I believe private education provides a better result for less money, the general public has determined that public education is in the public’s best interest,” she wrote. “To that end, my hope will be to involve parents and teachers to take more control (as would be the case in private education) through informing them and encouraging their increased participation with their local school boards.”

Rowe, who didn’t respond to Kansas Reflector’s inquiries, is a member of the Kansas Green Party, according to his&nbsp;<a href="https://www.kentforkansasboe.com/kent-s-platform/" target="_blank">campaign website</a>. His priorities include retaining funding for rural public schools, preventing book bans in high schools and addressing student mental health issues. He is a retired professor of aeronautical science for the U.S. Air Force and the former mayor of Longton, which is in Elk County.

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/10/1729860959890.png" alt="Five seats on the Kansas Board of Education are up for grabs in the 2024 general election, and the outcome will determine whether the board shifts to a conservative majority. (Tim Carpenter/Kansas Reflector)" />
 <figcaption>Five seats on the Kansas Board of Education are up for grabs in the 2024 general election, and the outcome will determine whether the board shifts to a conservative majority. (Tim Carpenter/Kansas Reflector)</figcaption>
 </figure>BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://kansasreflector.com/author/akaminski/">ANNA KAMINSKI</a> <a href="https://kansasreflector.com/">Kansas Reflector</a>TOPEKA — Turnover on the Kansas Board of Education after the November election could tip the board’s balance of power in favor of conservative members.Half of the board’s 10 seats are up for election. Republicans currently outnumber Democrats seven to three, but some moderate board members aren’t running for reelection, positioning the board for a potential ideological shake-up. All five races are contested, and the 12 candidates are differentiating themselves on such central issues as parental rights, public school funding and school safety ahead of Nov. 5.The board is tasked with oversight of the Kansas Department of Education and supervision of public schools, but it has little control over funding, a responsibility of the legislative branch.Two incumbents are running for reelection, and a pair of three-way races could split conservative votes. Many of this election’s Republican candidates align with the current board’s conservative faction on issues like religion in schools, arming teachers and parental involvement in instructional and functional decisions.At an Oct. 6 forum in Lawrence, a candidate for the northeastern 4th District, Kris Meyer, criticized the four conservative members on the current board who she believes are “seeking to sow distrust across the state of Kansas in our public schools.”Those four board members — Danny Zeck, Michelle Dombrosky, Cathy Hopkins and Dennis Hershberger — are not up for reelection until 2026.In the 2nd District, which represents school districts in Johnson and Wyandotte counties, incumbent Melanie Haas, a Democrat and tech executive, is seeking to retain her seat in a three-way race. She is up against Republican challenger Fred Postlewait and an independent, Kiel Corkran. Haas was first elected in 2020 and is the board’s current chair. She was endorsed by the Kansas National Education Association, the state’s public educator union, and she has defended fully funding public schools.Postlewait, a retired computer systems manager, was inspired to run for the board to address declining ACT scores, which have been on a downward trend since 2014 but saw a sharp drop in 2020.“The train is off the tracks,” he wrote on his campaign website.Corkran does not have a campaign website and didn’t respond to Kansas Reflector’s requests for an interview.In the 4th District in northeastern Kansas, Democrat Ann Mah is vacating her seat on the board after eight years. Republican Connie O’Brien, a former teacher and state representative, and Democrat Meyer, a longtime public school educator and principal, are vying for the position.O’Brien beat out two other Republican hopefuls in the August Primary after Attorney General Kris Kobach gave her his endorsement, urging conservatives to vote for her.She said in a video posted to YouTube she’ll focus on changes to vocational and technical education, supporting parental rights and supporting teachers.O’Brien, who did not respond to Kansas Reflector’s requests for comment, said at the Oct. 6 candidate forum at the Lawrence Public Library she does not support vouchers, adding that private school and home school parents “don’t want government in their face.”“But you have to wonder why parents march up to the capital every year and ask for those things,” she said.Meyer told Kansas Reflector she’ll focus on fully funding public education, particularly special education, addressing teacher shortages and retention woes and bolstering student mental health support.“I want to ensure the state board continues to set clear standards and advocate for policies and funding that guarantee all students receive a quality education,” she said. “This includes pushing back on legislative overreach that could hinder the state board’s constitutional duty.”In the 6th District, Republican Deena Horst isn’t running for reelection. Democrat Beryl Ann New, a retired director of personnel and equity at Topeka Public Schools, and Republican Bruce Schultz, a retired professor of anatomy and physiology at Kansas State University, are running to represent school districts in north-central and northeastern Kansas, including the cities of Lawrence and Topeka.If elected, New told Kansas Reflector, her goal is to address poor student performance and safety in schools in her first year.“I will collaborate with board members to ensure that resources are provided to schools whose students are yet below grade level in reading comprehension, provide funding to ensure that Kansas schools remain safe and secure, and solidly support the full funding of all Kansas schools with 100% of funds going solely to public schools,” New said.She also said she supports vetted alternative teaching programs to address teacher retention and shortages. At the Oct. 6 forum in Lawrence, New said the principal reason she’s seen teachers leave the profession was inadequate compensation.Schultz, who didn’t respond to Kansas Reflector’s inquiries, said at the forum he doesn’t think boosting teacher salaries is the right answer to teacher retention issues and shortages. Instead, he favors an approach that builds persistence in teaching, he said.“We need to reform the system to allow and promote greater community engagement,” he said.Schultz has campaigned on prioritizing parent involvement in school decisions, focusing education on math, science, language arts and financial literacy and budget efficiency, according to his campaign website.In the Wichita-area 8th District, Democratic incumbent Betty Arnold, a former Wichita school board member, seeks to hold on to the position she has occupied since 2021. She’s aiming to reevaluate performance measures and outcomes, increase teacher compensation and prioritize student safety.“I believe in public education and I will continue to support it,” Arnold said in an email. “As the focus shifts away from the support of public education, it is vital to have an advocate that understands public education is a must if we want to continue with all children having access to an education.”Arnold’s opponent, Republican Jason Carmichael, did not respond to Kansas Reflector’s requests for comment. He&nbsp;<a href="https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2023/11/12/in-kansas-school-board-races-voters-reject-candidates-pushing-culture-war-issues/" target="_blank">lost a bid for a sea</a>t on the Unified School District 259 board in Wichita in 2023. During that election, he ran on the premise that “parents’ rights are the cornerstone” of society,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.kmuw.org/politics/2023-10-19/2023-wichita-school-board-where-do-candidates-stand-on-the-issues" target="_blank">KMUW reported</a>. Carmichael believes in eliminating the U.S. Department of Education, supports teachers who are authorized to carry guns in order to combat an active shooter and opposes mandated vaccination requirements, according to a questionnaire he completed for&nbsp;<a href="https://ivoterguide.com/" target="_blank">iVoterGuide</a>, which is affiliated with Christian political nonprofit&nbsp;<a href="https://afaaction.net/mission" target="_blank">AFA Action</a>.The 10th District in south-central Kansas is contested in a three-way race. Jeffrey Jarman, a Democrat, Debby Potter, a Republican, and Kent Rowe, an independent, are vying for the position being vacated by moderate Republican Jim McNiece.Jarman, a communications professor at Wichita State University and member of the Maize public school board, said in an email he will advocate for stable funding and against school vouchers if elected.“While the Legislature appropriates the funds, there is an important role for the board in advocating for stable funding,” he said. “The current funding formula finally meets the minimum required by the state constitution, but it will expire in 2027. I strongly support extending the formula to provide stability to school districts.”Jarman said he hopes to support local districts by bettering educational achievement outcomes and allocating existing funds to programs that assist the “most vulnerable students,” he said.“But,” he added, “the board is divided and decisions about how to best support our students unfortunately are politicized.”Potter, who did not respond to Kansas Reflector’s requests for comment, homeschooled her own children, and she said she was inspired to run when she considered her grandchildren.“I want them not to be indoctrinated away from their faith and away from their parents, and I feel like there’s a lot of undermining of the families going on,” she said at a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ub1MbGf7FXI" target="_blank">candidate forum</a>&nbsp;hosted by Republican Women United of Sedgwick County ahead of the August primary election.She defeated another Republican hopeful in the primary. God is her campaign manager, she said at the forum.Potter considers herself to be “very conservative, ” she wrote in answers for an iVoterGuide questionnaire. She supports arming licensed teachers, eradicating the federal department of education and is a strong advocate for parental involvement in schools.“While I believe private education provides a better result for less money, the general public has determined that public education is in the public’s best interest,” she wrote. “To that end, my hope will be to involve parents and teachers to take more control (as would be the case in private education) through informing them and encouraging their increased participation with their local school boards.”Rowe, who didn’t respond to Kansas Reflector’s inquiries, is a member of the Kansas Green Party, according to his&nbsp;<a href="https://www.kentforkansasboe.com/kent-s-platform/" target="_blank">campaign website</a>. His priorities include retaining funding for rural public schools, preventing book bans in high schools and addressing student mental health issues. He is a retired professor of aeronautical science for the U.S. Air Force and the former mayor of Longton, which is in Elk County.

Kansas Board of Education races could shift power to conservative bloc

PHILLIPS COUNTY —A man is in custody after allegedly firing a gun near the middle school in Phillipsburg.

Just before 8a.m. Thursday, the Phillips County Sheriff's Office received a call that there was an individual shooting a gun south of the middle school in Phillipsburg, according to a social media report from the sheriff.

A deputy who was patrolling school zones in Phillipsburg arrived shortly.  The Deputy began shouting orders and then the individual dropped both weapons and laid them on the ground.  The suspect,&nbsp;identified as 26-year-old Morgan William Thieben, who lives in the 500 block of 7th street in an apartment. 

 From eyewitness statements it has been concluded that he fired two shots into the air with a 9mm Pistol, but also had an AR Rifle on his person as well, according to the sheriff's office.

Thieben was then taken into custody on requested charges of Criminal Threat, Aggravated Assault and Unlawful Discharge of a firearm within city limits.

He had one full magazine for the pistol and the rifle magazine and chamber were empty.  A search warrant was done on the suspect’s apartment.  During the search only a single 9mm round was found in the apartment.  There was no evidence leading to a motive or agenda. 

Thieben is currently incarcerated in the Phillips County Jail where he is being mentally screened.  There were multiple people in the area who helped get the kids to safety at the nearby school and others who attempted to control the situation.

  Sheriff Kyle Pinkerton said, “We should all be proud of how our community reacted, it was quick, and everyone prioritized the safety of our children, and also to the Deputies that responded and ran directly to the threat and ended it." 

PHILLIPS COUNTY—Law enforcement are investigating gunfire near the middle school in Phillipsburg.

Just before 8a.m. Thursday, sheriff's deputies responded to a report of shots fired in the 500 block of 7th street, according to a social media report from the Phillips County Sheriff's office.

The shots fired were not believed to be directed at the nearby school, according to the sheriff's office.&nbsp; Phillipsburg Middle School is located at&nbsp;647 7th Street.

The suspect, identified as 26-year-old Morgan William Thieben, according to online jail records is in custody. He is being held on requested charges of aggravated assault, criminal discharge of a firearm and criminal threat; cause terror, evacuation or disruption. There were no injuries reported.

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/10/1729786283582.png" alt="Thieben photo Phillips County" />
 <figcaption>Thieben photo Phillips County</figcaption>
 </figure>PHILLIPS COUNTY —A man is in custody after allegedly firing a gun near the middle school in Phillipsburg.Just before 8a.m. Thursday, the Phillips County Sheriff's Office received a call that there was an individual shooting a gun south of the middle school in Phillipsburg, according to a social media report from the sheriff.A deputy who was patrolling school zones in Phillipsburg arrived shortly. The Deputy began shouting orders and then the individual dropped both weapons and laid them on the ground. The suspect,&nbsp;identified as 26-year-old Morgan William Thieben, who lives in the 500 block of 7th street in an apartment. From eyewitness statements it has been concluded that he fired two shots into the air with a 9mm Pistol, but also had an AR Rifle on his person as well, according to the sheriff's office.Thieben was then taken into custody on requested charges of Criminal Threat, Aggravated Assault and Unlawful Discharge of a firearm within city limits.He had one full magazine for the pistol and the rifle magazine and chamber were empty. A search warrant was done on the suspect’s apartment. During the search only a single 9mm round was found in the apartment. There was no evidence leading to a motive or agenda. Thieben is currently incarcerated in the Phillips County Jail where he is being mentally screened. There were multiple people in the area who helped get the kids to safety at the nearby school and others who attempted to control the situation. Sheriff Kyle Pinkerton said, “We should all be proud of how our community reacted, it was quick, and everyone prioritized the safety of our children, and also to the Deputies that responded and ran directly to the threat and ended it." ----------PHILLIPS COUNTY—Law enforcement are investigating gunfire near the middle school in Phillipsburg.Just before 8a.m. Thursday, sheriff's deputies responded to a report of shots fired in the 500 block of 7th street, according to a social media report from the Phillips County Sheriff's office.The shots fired were not believed to be directed at the nearby school, according to the sheriff's office.&nbsp; Phillipsburg Middle School is located at&nbsp;647 7th Street.The suspect, identified as 26-year-old Morgan William Thieben, according to online jail records is in custody. He is being held on requested charges of aggravated assault, criminal discharge of a firearm and criminal threat; cause terror, evacuation or disruption. There were no injuries reported.

Sheriff: Man who fired shots near Kan. middle school had AR rifle

KANSAS CITY—Law enforcement are investigating another homicide in Kansas City have a suspect in custody.

Just after 5:30a.m. Thursday, police were dispatched to the intersection of E 17th and Cambridge in Kansas City on a reported EMS call, according to KCPD Officer Alayna Gonzalez.

Officers arrived on scene prior to EMS and located a victim later identified as 18-year-old&nbsp;Christopher Avila lying on the sidewalk. He was unresponsive and suffering from unknown bodily trauma. EMS responded shortly after and pronounced Avila deceased.

Officers on scene asked for assistance from homicide detectives due to the death appearing suspicious in nature. Detectives were sent to the scene to investigate further and it was determined this incident would be investigated as a homicide. On Thursday afternoon, police took a juvenile suspect into custody for questioning.&nbsp;

At this time, we do not have any preliminary information leading up to what happened.&nbsp;

KANSAS CITY—Law enforcement are investigating another homicide in Kansas City have a suspect in custody.Just after 5:30a.m. Thursday, police were dispatched to the intersection of E 17th and Cambridge in Kansas City on a reported EMS call, according to KCPD Officer Alayna Gonzalez.Officers arrived on scene prior to EMS and located a victim later identified as 18-year-old&nbsp;Christopher Avila lying on the sidewalk. He was unresponsive and suffering from unknown bodily trauma. EMS responded shortly after and pronounced Avila deceased.Officers on scene asked for assistance from homicide detectives due to the death appearing suspicious in nature. Detectives were sent to the scene to investigate further and it was determined this incident would be investigated as a homicide. On Thursday afternoon, police took a juvenile suspect into custody for questioning.&nbsp;At this time, we do not have any preliminary information leading up to what happened.&nbsp;

Homicide: Police ID teen found dead on Kansas City sidewalk

KANSAS CITY —The man charged in connection with the break-in at a Kansas City River Market ice cream shop, which was captured on video, h as a history of committing crime.

John Heckman, 78, faces Burglary in the 2nd Degree, Stealing and Property Damage in the 1st Degree, according to&nbsp;Jackson County Prosecutor Jean Peters Baker.

According to court records, Kansas City Police Department officers were dispatched on Oct. 13, to the 400 block of Delaware in the River Market on a reported burglary. Officers saw a broken glass door at one entrance. Video showed an older white male throwing a rock through a window and entering the business. 

He then carries out a business safe. Police detectives obtained video that showed a dark blue Subaru with a license plate. The man in the video loaded the safe into that vehicle. Other video showed distinctive tattoos associated with the defendant. Police, joined by Kansas City, Kan. officers, located the defendant in a Kansas City, Kan., residence. Detectives interviewed the suspect who told them he spent the money on dope and the casinos.

He has a previous burglary conviction, according to the Kansas Department of Corrections.

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/10/1729717963316.png" alt="Heckman from an earlier arrest in Wyandotte Co." />
 <figcaption>Heckman from an earlier arrest in Wyandotte Co.</figcaption>
 </figure>KANSAS CITY —The man charged in connection with the break-in at a Kansas City River Market ice cream shop, which was captured on video, h as a history of committing crime.John Heckman, 78, faces Burglary in the 2nd Degree, Stealing and Property Damage in the 1st Degree, according to&nbsp;Jackson County Prosecutor Jean Peters Baker.According to court records, Kansas City Police Department officers were dispatched on Oct. 13, to the 400 block of Delaware in the River Market on a reported burglary. Officers saw a broken glass door at one entrance. Video showed an older white male throwing a rock through a window and entering the business. He then carries out a business safe. Police detectives obtained video that showed a dark blue Subaru with a license plate. The man in the video loaded the safe into that vehicle. Other video showed distinctive tattoos associated with the defendant. Police, joined by Kansas City, Kan. officers, located the defendant in a Kansas City, Kan., residence. Detectives interviewed the suspect who told them he spent the money on dope and the casinos.He has a previous burglary conviction, according to the Kansas Department of Corrections.

78-year-old arrested in Kansas for ice cream shop burglary 

The presumptive House speaker’s comments broke from a growing narrative among Missouri GOP leaders of a unified effort to overturn the amendment

BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/annaspoerre/">ANNA SPOERRE</a> <a href="https://missouriindependent.com/briefs/missouri-senate-committee-advances-bill-to-ban-texting-while-driving/">Missouri Independent</a>

With some GOP leaders in Missouri already&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/2024/09/25/amendment-3-challenges-abortion-missouri-legislation/">plotting ways to overturn an abortion-rights amendment</a>&nbsp;if it passes next month, the Republican set to take over as speaker of the state House says lawmakers should abide by the will of the voters.&nbsp;

State Rep. Jon Patterson, a Lee’s Summit Republican expected to become House speaker when the legislature returns in January, says he doesn’t support the proposal to enshrine abortion in the constitution, which will appear on the Nov. 5 ballot as<a href="https://moconstitutionalfreedom.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Missourians-for-Constitutional-Freedom-Amendment.pdf" target="_blank">&nbsp;Amendment 3.&nbsp;</a>

But if it wins, he said, the legislature should respect the voters’ decision.&nbsp;

“It will be the law of the land,” he said Wednesday evening at a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.facebook.com/lsummitchamber/videos/359247167201027" target="_blank">Lee’s Summit Chamber candidate forum</a>. “And we have to go forward as the people decide.”

Regardless of the outcome on Amendment 3, Patterson — who is running for a fourth term against Democrat Kevin Grover — told Wednesday’s crowd that “I don’t think an abortion ban works. I don’t think it’s working for Missouri.”

In an interview with The Independent on Thursday, Patterson clarified he was talking about a “total ban” on abortion.&nbsp;

“Missourians are telling us they want compromise,” he said.&nbsp;

When the constitutional right to an abortion was overturned in June 2022, Missouri became the first state to enact a trigger law banning the procedure in all cases except for medical emergencies.&nbsp;There are no exceptions for survivors of rape or incest.&nbsp;

In 2019, Patterson voted in favor of the trigger law that would later be used to ban abortion.

Amendment 3 would legalize abortion up until the point of fetal viability and protect other forms of reproductive health care, including access to birth control. The amendment would allow the Missouri legislature to regulate abortion after fetal viability — generally seen as the end of the second trimester of pregnancy — with exceptions for “the life or physical or mental health of the pregnant person.”

State Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman, a Republican from Arnold,&nbsp;told The Independent last month that if the amendment passes,&nbsp;it will not be the last time Missourians vote on abortion.

Coleman noted that after Missourians passed a citizen-led amendment requiring legislative districts be drawn to ensure partisan fairness in 2018, the legislature placed a repeal amendment on the ballot two years later. It was also&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/2020/11/04/voters-repeal-clean-missouri-redistricting-plan-they-enacted-in-2018/">approved by Missouri voters</a>.

“This is not the end all be all,” Coleman said of Amendment 3. “And I think you will see efforts, win or lose, for Missourians to get another say in this.”&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

Earlier this month, U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, a Republican running for re-election, was&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/2024/10/21/missouri-senate-race-abortion-hawley-kunce/">asked about Amendment 3 during a rally in the Kansas City suburbs.</a>

“I think it’s absolutely right Missouri voters get to make a choice on this,” he said. “And they can vote on it as many times as they want to.”&nbsp;

During an interview last month on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.facebook.com/939TheEagle/videos/529192476327043" target="_blank">Wake Up Mid-Missouri</a>, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, the GOP candidate for governor, was asked what he could do if Amendment 3 passes.

“There will be ideas from the legislature I’m sure, and other groups, on how to continue to protect innocent life,” Kehoe said, later adding: “I will do everything I can to work with legislators and other folks around the state to find ways to make sure we continue to do that in some form or fashion.”

He later said that as a person of faith, he believes “we’ll figure out something.”

So far, polling has favored Amendment 3.&nbsp;

<a href="https://emersoncollegepolling.com/september-2024-missouri-poll-republican-candidates-lead-in-president-governor-senate-races/" target="_blank">A recent Emerson College poll</a>&nbsp;found 58% of those surveyed support Amendment 3, with 30% opposed. The most recent&nbsp;<a href="https://www.slu.edu/research/research-institute/big-ideas/slu-poll/index.php" target="_blank">SLU/YouGov Poll</a>&nbsp;found that 52% supported the amendment and 34% opposed.

An August 2022&nbsp;<a href="https://www.slu.edu/research/research-institute/big-ideas/slu-poll/previous-poll-results/august-2022-results.php" target="_blank">St. Louis University/YouGov poll</a>&nbsp;found 75% of likely Missouri voters polled immediately following the enactment of the state’s ban were in favor of exceptions for abortions in cases of rape, and 79% supported exceptions in cases of incest.&nbsp;

Patterson’s call to abide by the outcome of the Amendment 3 vote echoes his opposition to GOP efforts earlier this year to make it harder to amend the constitution through the initiative petition process.

The proposal was an effort to undermine the abortion-rights amendment, and when it came up for a final vote in the House,&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/2024/04/25/missouri-initiative-petition-bill-ballot-candy-reinstated/">Patterson was the only Republican to vote “no.”</a>&nbsp;The bill ultimately died in the Senate.

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2024/10/1729803192375.png" alt="House Majority Leader Jonathan Patterson, R-Lee’s Summit, speaks during floor debate in March 2021 (Tim Bommel/Missouri House Commuincations)." />
 <figcaption>House Majority Leader Jonathan Patterson, R-Lee’s Summit, speaks during floor debate in March 2021 (Tim Bommel/Missouri House Commuincations).</figcaption>
 </figure><h2>The presumptive House speaker’s comments broke from a growing narrative among Missouri GOP leaders of a unified effort to overturn the amendment</h2>BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/annaspoerre/">ANNA SPOERRE</a> <a href="https://missouriindependent.com/briefs/missouri-senate-committee-advances-bill-to-ban-texting-while-driving/">Missouri Independent</a>With some GOP leaders in Missouri already&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/2024/09/25/amendment-3-challenges-abortion-missouri-legislation/">plotting ways to overturn an abortion-rights amendment</a>&nbsp;if it passes next month, the Republican set to take over as speaker of the state House says lawmakers should abide by the will of the voters.&nbsp;State Rep. Jon Patterson, a Lee’s Summit Republican expected to become House speaker when the legislature returns in January, says he doesn’t support the proposal to enshrine abortion in the constitution, which will appear on the Nov. 5 ballot as<a href="https://moconstitutionalfreedom.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Missourians-for-Constitutional-Freedom-Amendment.pdf" target="_blank">&nbsp;Amendment 3.&nbsp;</a>But if it wins, he said, the legislature should respect the voters’ decision.&nbsp;“It will be the law of the land,” he said Wednesday evening at a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.facebook.com/lsummitchamber/videos/359247167201027" target="_blank">Lee’s Summit Chamber candidate forum</a>. “And we have to go forward as the people decide.”Regardless of the outcome on Amendment 3, Patterson — who is running for a fourth term against Democrat Kevin Grover — told Wednesday’s crowd that “I don’t think an abortion ban works. I don’t think it’s working for Missouri.”In an interview with The Independent on Thursday, Patterson clarified he was talking about a “total ban” on abortion.&nbsp;“Missourians are telling us they want compromise,” he said.&nbsp;When the constitutional right to an abortion was overturned in June 2022, Missouri became the first state to enact a trigger law banning the procedure in all cases except for medical emergencies.&nbsp;There are no exceptions for survivors of rape or incest.&nbsp;In 2019, Patterson voted in favor of the trigger law that would later be used to ban abortion.Amendment 3 would legalize abortion up until the point of fetal viability and protect other forms of reproductive health care, including access to birth control. The amendment would allow the Missouri legislature to regulate abortion after fetal viability — generally seen as the end of the second trimester of pregnancy — with exceptions for “the life or physical or mental health of the pregnant person.”State Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman, a Republican from Arnold,&nbsp;told The Independent last month that if the amendment passes,&nbsp;it will not be the last time Missourians vote on abortion.Coleman noted that after Missourians passed a citizen-led amendment requiring legislative districts be drawn to ensure partisan fairness in 2018, the legislature placed a repeal amendment on the ballot two years later. It was also&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/2020/11/04/voters-repeal-clean-missouri-redistricting-plan-they-enacted-in-2018/">approved by Missouri voters</a>.“This is not the end all be all,” Coleman said of Amendment 3. “And I think you will see efforts, win or lose, for Missourians to get another say in this.”&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Earlier this month, U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, a Republican running for re-election, was&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/2024/10/21/missouri-senate-race-abortion-hawley-kunce/">asked about Amendment 3 during a rally in the Kansas City suburbs.</a>“I think it’s absolutely right Missouri voters get to make a choice on this,” he said. “And they can vote on it as many times as they want to.”&nbsp;During an interview last month on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.facebook.com/939TheEagle/videos/529192476327043" target="_blank">Wake Up Mid-Missouri</a>, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, the GOP candidate for governor, was asked what he could do if Amendment 3 passes.“There will be ideas from the legislature I’m sure, and other groups, on how to continue to protect innocent life,” Kehoe said, later adding: “I will do everything I can to work with legislators and other folks around the state to find ways to make sure we continue to do that in some form or fashion.”He later said that as a person of faith, he believes “we’ll figure out something.”So far, polling has favored Amendment 3.&nbsp;<a href="https://emersoncollegepolling.com/september-2024-missouri-poll-republican-candidates-lead-in-president-governor-senate-races/" target="_blank">A recent Emerson College poll</a>&nbsp;found 58% of those surveyed support Amendment 3, with 30% opposed. The most recent&nbsp;<a href="https://www.slu.edu/research/research-institute/big-ideas/slu-poll/index.php" target="_blank">SLU/YouGov Poll</a>&nbsp;found that 52% supported the amendment and 34% opposed.An August 2022&nbsp;<a href="https://www.slu.edu/research/research-institute/big-ideas/slu-poll/previous-poll-results/august-2022-results.php" target="_blank">St. Louis University/YouGov poll</a>&nbsp;found 75% of likely Missouri voters polled immediately following the enactment of the state’s ban were in favor of exceptions for abortions in cases of rape, and 79% supported exceptions in cases of incest.&nbsp;Patterson’s call to abide by the outcome of the Amendment 3 vote echoes his opposition to GOP efforts earlier this year to make it harder to amend the constitution through the initiative petition process.The proposal was an effort to undermine the abortion-rights amendment, and when it came up for a final vote in the House,&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/2024/04/25/missouri-initiative-petition-bill-ballot-candy-reinstated/">Patterson was the only Republican to vote “no.”</a>&nbsp;The bill ultimately died in the Senate.

Missouri GOP leader says legislature must respect outcome if abortion amendment passes

BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/ashley-murray/">ASHLEY MURRAY</a>

WASHINGTON — The next U.S. president must steer the nation through crises across the globe, including worsening violence in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to retreat from Ukraine and U.S-China trade relations.

The Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, largely built her career as a prosecutor, but once in Washington she sat on the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, a position that comes with access to highly classified national security files.

As vice president she’s represented the U.S. at high-profile international meetings, including the Munich Security Conference and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.

The Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, who followed his wealthy father’s path into real estate and ascended to the status of celebrity businessman, has already held the elected position of Commander-in-Chief for four years — though high-ranking officials who served under him&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/article/milley-trump-biden-democracy-military-d2abb76858291c87ae856f91e9556d8e" target="_blank">say</a>&nbsp;he&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bolton-excoriates-trump-fresh-introduction-his-memoir-2024-01-30/" target="_blank">should</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/03/30/mark-esper-wont-vote-for-trump-wont-say-he-will-vote-for-biden-sot-nr-vpx.cnn" target="_blank">not</a>&nbsp;occupy that seat again.

Trump and Harris’ track records can provide clues on how, if elected, they would handle complex and challenging national and economic security policies.

But overall on the campaign trail, foreign policy “has played a back seat role to domestic politics in the 2024 election,” James M. Lindsay, a senior fellow in U.S. foreign policy for the Council on Foreign Relations, told States Newsroom in an interview.

That’s not unusual, Lindsay said, as presidential year politics generally tend to have a domestic focus.

“This has been more a campaign about personalities than about specific policy prescriptions. It’s safe to say that the two candidates have very different world views,” Lindsay said.

Harris centers relationship building, and promised in her Democratic National Convention acceptance speech to “stand strong” with NATO allies.

In Trump’s convention speech he lamented that the U.S. has “long been taken advantage of” by “so-called allies.”

Observers say the former president leads with a transactional outlook: In other words, nations must pay for access to U.S. markets and security.

“Trump thinks that U.S. support to allies is a bad deal for America, whereas Harris realizes that the United States benefits immensely from them,” Matthew Waxman, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and chair of Columbia Law School’s National Security Law Program, told States Newsroom.

But predicting how a presidential candidate would act on the global stage, if elected, is tricky. Conflicts continue to evolve, and those in top defense and diplomatic jobs are likely to turn over.

“It’s partly because a President Harris or President Trump could face a very different situation in the Middle East or in Ukraine come Inauguration Day, but it’s also because in Washington personnel are policy, people are policy,” Lindsay said.

Here are some of the serious international situations either administration will face:

The deadly Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, launched from the Palestinian territory of the Gaza Strip, reignited smoldering regional tensions and highlighted the inextricable U.S. role. Hamas militants killed roughly 1,200 in the brutal and unexpected incursion, and took 250 hostages, many of whom still remain in captivity.

President Joe Biden immediately&nbsp;<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47828" target="_blank">surged</a>&nbsp;weapons and security aid to the key U.S. defense partner, and in April Congress approved his request for $8.7 billion more in foreign military financing and missile defense.

Israel’s year-long campaign to completely eliminate Iranian-allied Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip has resulted in a staggering death toll, now over 41,000, according to Gaza health officials.

Hamas’ assault also set in motion attacks from other Iranian-backed militias, opening up a war front between Israel and Hezbollah fighters to the north in Lebanon. And for months, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis have terrorized commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Biden has faced fierce criticism for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war tactics.

Harris, as early as March,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/03/04/1234822836/kamala-harris-benny-gantz-gaza-cease-fire-israel-hamas" target="_blank">publicly</a>&nbsp;criticized Israel over the humanitarian “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-vp-harris-urges-israeli-government-do-more-boost-aid-into-gaza-2024-03-03/" target="_blank">catastrophe</a>” in Gaza and called for an immediate six-week cease-fire.

Harris, who became the Democratic presidential nominee in mid-summer after Biden dropped his bid, has repeatedly said she defends Israel’s right to defend itself but that “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/07/25/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-following-meeting-with-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-of-israel/" target="_blank">how it does so matters</a>.”

Protesters could be heard in the distance Monday as Harris planted a memorial tree at the vice president’s residence to mark the one-year anniversary of the Oct. 7 attack. Pro-Palestinian activists protesting the death toll in Gaza have marched and rallied throughout the U.S. during the past year.

Harris&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/one-year-oct-7-attack-israel-us-leaders-honor-victims-and-protesters-march" target="_blank">told</a>&nbsp;reporters that the administration is “not giving up” on negotiating a cease-fire deal and release of hostages, an effort that has so far floundered.

“It’s one of the most important ways we will be able to end this war and bring any type of stability to the region. It’s one of the highest priorities of this administration,” she said.

She has not indicated any slowdown or conditions on assistance to Israel if elected — though she continues to advocate for a two-state solution.

“Trump may give Jerusalem less public chastising and criticism, but I’m not sure the policy differences would be that great either,” Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and foreign policy research director at the Brookings Institution, told States Newsroom. O’Hanlon recently published an article arguing the Trump and Harris defense strategies would at least “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-partially-convergent-trump-and-harris-defense-policies/" target="_blank">partially</a>” converge.

Trump maintains that Oct. 7 “would never have happened” had he been in office, and he accuses the Biden administration of inviting the attack because of its “weak” relationship with Iran.

“What is needed more than ever is a return of unwavering American leadership and unquestioned American strength. We were strong, we were powerful … That’s what I intend to deliver as the 47th president of the United States,” he said Monday while in Miami marking one year since the ambush on Israel.

The attack also wrecked any forward progress on the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.state.gov/the-abraham-accords/" target="_blank">Abraham Accords</a>&nbsp;— Trump’s signature Middle East achievement that created full diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. While those established channels remain steady, the Biden administration’s efforts to strike a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia are now at a standstill.

Trump is increasingly selling himself on the campaign trail as the candidate of stability who can quash Iran’s aggression — which is pretty much a “standard approach to campaigning,” Lindsay said.

“He is not the first challenger to argue that the incumbent president has been weak.”

But Lindsay said, “the important question isn’t whether he was tougher, it’s whether his policies were more effective.”

For example, the Iranian-backed so-called “axis of resistance” militias currently upending the Middle East were also operating during Trump’s presidency.

“(They) pre-dated his coming into office but it’s not that a Trump administration ended that network of anti-Western, anti-Israeli groups,” Lindsay said. “And during the Trump administration it was the case that Iran both underwrote attacks on American troops and actually launched attacks on American troops.”

Trump drew attention last week to an early January 2020 barrage on U.S. troops in Iraq when he again&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/trump-describes-traumatic-brain-injuries-sustained-us-troops-iraq-headache" target="_blank">described</a>&nbsp;the traumatic brain injuries they suffered as “headaches.”

U.S. troops&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/us-troops-middle-east-mapping-military-presence" target="_blank">in Iraq and Syria</a>, already a target, have come under increasing fire from Iran-backed militants, with more than 100&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/drone-strike-risks-dangerous-us-iran-escalation" target="_blank">attacks</a>&nbsp;on U.S. service members since Israel began its post-Oct. 7 offensive. A drone strike in January&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/28/politics/us-troops-drone-attack-jordan/index.html" target="_blank">killed</a>&nbsp;three U.S. soldiers and injured 30 at an outpost in Jordan on the Syrian border. The U.S. retaliated by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/02/1228132782/us-biden-iran-drone-response-strike" target="_blank">launching</a>&nbsp;more than 100 precision rockets at 85 of Iran military sites in Iraq and Syria.

The U.S. assisted Israel&nbsp;<a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3923123/us-assets-in-mediterranean-again-helped-defend-israel-against-iranian-missiles/" target="_blank">twice</a>&nbsp;in 2024 in intercepting rockets fired directly from Iran — once in April following Israel’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, and again in September after Israel’s assassination of Iranian-backed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, Lebanon.

“We’re in the last months of the Biden presidency, and Biden’s own, I think, personal influence here is quite diminished. And you know, I can’t predict what Trump policy really would be. I assume he would be less likely to be trying to restrain the Israelis, but so is the Biden administration. And maybe that is a Biden-Harris policy,” Elliott Abrams, CFR’s senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, told reporters on Oct. 2, the day after Iran launched its second direct&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/01/iran-imminent-ballistic-missile-attack-israel-us-warns" target="_blank">attack</a>.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with both&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/zelenskyy-washington-meets-us-leaders-beef-support-ukraine" target="_blank">Harris</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/09/27/u-s-government-unveils-charges-against-iranians-who-hacked-into-trump-2024-campaign/" target="_blank">Trump</a>&nbsp;in recent weeks to shore up continued U.S. support for his country’s ongoing war against Russia’s occupation.

Harris’ meeting with the Ukrainian leader was her seventh, and she pledged continued aid for the eastern European nation on the principle that Putin would continue marching into Europe if allies relent on Ukraine.

Harris supports continued U.S. assistance, which has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine" target="_blank">totaled</a>&nbsp;roughly $175 billion since 2022. At the Ukraine peace&nbsp;<a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/06/16/joint-communique-on-a-peace-framework-summit-on-peace-in-ukraine/" target="_blank">summit</a>&nbsp;in Switzerland in June, Harris&nbsp;<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20240723-from-gaza-to-china-where-kamala-harris-stands-on-foreign-policy-issues" target="_blank">pledged</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/jun-15-2024-/vice-president-kamala-harris-announces-over-1-billion-bolster-ukraines-energy-sector-address-humanitarian-needs-and-strengthen-civilian-security" target="_blank">nearly</a>&nbsp;$2 billion, some new and some redirected, to bolster the country’s energy sector and add to humanitarian efforts.

The vice president has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/02/19/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-the-munich-security-conference/" target="_blank">represented</a>&nbsp;the U.S.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/18/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-the-munich-security-conference-2/" target="_blank">three</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/02/16/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-the-munich-security-conference-munich-germany/" target="_blank">times</a>&nbsp;at the annual Munich Security Conference in Germany, where she praised the NATO alliance and said the U.S. commitment to its principles is “ironclad.”

When facing Harris on the presidential debate stage in September, Trump&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/harris-tears-trump-over-abortion-rights-and-race-tense-presidential-debate" target="_blank">refused</a>&nbsp;to answer whether he wants Ukraine to be victorious over Russia.

Trump’s rhetoric and past behavior “spells bad news for Ukraine,” Waxman said.

“He is likely to reduce American support for Ukraine and push Ukraine to make concessions to Russia. Overall, Trump’s transactional approach to leader-to-leader diplomacy is likely to benefit Putin,” Waxman continued. “Whereas Harris wants to invest in alliances like NATO, Trump is skeptical of them.”

That type of leader-to-leader communication was notoriously highlighted in 2019 when U.S. House lawmakers&nbsp;<a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-S4-4-9/ALDE_00000035/" target="_blank">impeached</a>&nbsp;Trump for directly threatening to withhold Ukraine aid if Zelenskyy did not announce an investigation into Biden — Trump’s presidential campaign rival at the time. The Senate acquitted Trump.

Like his campaign line on the Israel attack, Trump also repeatedly claims that had he been in office, instead of Biden, Russia would have never launched its February 2022 attack on Ukraine.

“The war in Ukraine did not begin in February of ‘22, it began back in 2014,” Lindsay said, referring to Putin’s forced annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.

Trump’s own administration&nbsp;<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/" target="_blank">expanded</a>&nbsp;Obama-era sanctions meant to punish Russia’s actions in Crimea.

“Experts can argue about how to dole out criticism across administrations, but clearly the issue of Russian support for a notionally independent insurrection in eastern Ukraine was not solved during the Trump presidency,” Lindsay continued.

Foreign trade is a “political hot potato,” and neither Harris nor Trump are offering much clarity for U.S. trading partners around the world, Mary E. Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told States Newsroom in an interview.

Lovely described the Biden-Harris approach as multipronged, in that they’ve instituted policies to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. while also aiming to maintain good trade relationships with partner nations.

The tightrope walk becomes even trickier as U.S. policy also&nbsp;<a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/while-us-and-china-decouple-eu-and-china-deepen-trade-dependencies" target="_blank">disincentivizes</a>&nbsp;materials and components from China — one of the world’s largest trading nations — in the final products imported from trading partners. Think: components in solar panels and electric vehicles.

The Biden administration’s major legislative accomplishments — the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act — provided major subsidies for “reshoring,” or returning to the U.S., clean energy and semiconductor production. But the policies were not without risks to U.S. trading partners.

“We had a lot of things (in the legislation), including things that upset the allies — you know, subsidies for American businesses, that they saw potentially as pulling investment out of their economies,” Lovely said.

“These are things that the European Union, Japan, Korea were concerned about,” Lovely continued. “So we’ve seen it there — this tension between foreign policy and this idea of economic security.”

While Lovely said she worries about how some of the Biden-Harris trade policies might affect competition and the nation’s ability to sign timely trade agreements, she said Trump’s plans are overall “destabilizing.”

“The increased use of tariffs is misguided at best,” Lovely said.

Trump’s promise to not only increase tariffs on Chinese imports to 60%, but also to slap flat 10% to 20% tariffs on all imports across the board is akin to “starting a trade war with the entire world.”

“We’re not going to see those kinds of tariffs without retaliation,” Lovely said.

If enacted, the tariffs would be particularly challenging for Indo-Pacific countries that rely on U.S. partnership in the face of China’s regional dominance.

“I mean, you can imagine how this will go down in, say, Japan and Korea, two countries which rely on the U.S. for a security umbrella, which is why Trump thinks that he can do stuff to them. But they also have to protect their own economies,” Lovely said. “So it’s going to put them in a really terrible position because it’s very important for them to maintain their alliance with the U.S., economic as well as military.”

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2023/9/1695389171060.png" alt="File photo -President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy&nbsp; and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin- photo courtesy White House" />
 <figcaption>File photo -President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy&nbsp; and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin- photo courtesy White House</figcaption>
 </figure>BY:&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/ashley-murray/">ASHLEY MURRAY</a>WASHINGTON — The next U.S. president must steer the nation through crises across the globe, including worsening violence in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to retreat from Ukraine and U.S-China trade relations.The Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, largely built her career as a prosecutor, but once in Washington she sat on the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, a position that comes with access to highly classified national security files.As vice president she’s represented the U.S. at high-profile international meetings, including the Munich Security Conference and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.The Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, who followed his wealthy father’s path into real estate and ascended to the status of celebrity businessman, has already held the elected position of Commander-in-Chief for four years — though high-ranking officials who served under him&nbsp;<a href="https://apnews.com/article/milley-trump-biden-democracy-military-d2abb76858291c87ae856f91e9556d8e" target="_blank">say</a>&nbsp;he&nbsp;<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bolton-excoriates-trump-fresh-introduction-his-memoir-2024-01-30/" target="_blank">should</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/03/30/mark-esper-wont-vote-for-trump-wont-say-he-will-vote-for-biden-sot-nr-vpx.cnn" target="_blank">not</a>&nbsp;occupy that seat again.Trump and Harris’ track records can provide clues on how, if elected, they would handle complex and challenging national and economic security policies.But overall on the campaign trail, foreign policy “has played a back seat role to domestic politics in the 2024 election,” James M. Lindsay, a senior fellow in U.S. foreign policy for the Council on Foreign Relations, told States Newsroom in an interview.That’s not unusual, Lindsay said, as presidential year politics generally tend to have a domestic focus.“This has been more a campaign about personalities than about specific policy prescriptions. It’s safe to say that the two candidates have very different world views,” Lindsay said.<h2>Relationships with allies</h2>Harris centers relationship building, and promised in her Democratic National Convention acceptance speech to “stand strong” with NATO allies.In Trump’s convention speech he lamented that the U.S. has “long been taken advantage of” by “so-called allies.”Observers say the former president leads with a transactional outlook: In other words, nations must pay for access to U.S. markets and security.“Trump thinks that U.S. support to allies is a bad deal for America, whereas Harris realizes that the United States benefits immensely from them,” Matthew Waxman, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and chair of Columbia Law School’s National Security Law Program, told States Newsroom.But predicting how a presidential candidate would act on the global stage, if elected, is tricky. Conflicts continue to evolve, and those in top defense and diplomatic jobs are likely to turn over.“It’s partly because a President Harris or President Trump could face a very different situation in the Middle East or in Ukraine come Inauguration Day, but it’s also because in Washington personnel are policy, people are policy,” Lindsay said.Here are some of the serious international situations either administration will face:<h2>Middle East</h2>The deadly Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, launched from the Palestinian territory of the Gaza Strip, reignited smoldering regional tensions and highlighted the inextricable U.S. role. Hamas militants killed roughly 1,200 in the brutal and unexpected incursion, and took 250 hostages, many of whom still remain in captivity.President Joe Biden immediately&nbsp;<a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47828" target="_blank">surged</a>&nbsp;weapons and security aid to the key U.S. defense partner, and in April Congress approved his request for $8.7 billion more in foreign military financing and missile defense.Israel’s year-long campaign to completely eliminate Iranian-allied Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip has resulted in a staggering death toll, now over 41,000, according to Gaza health officials.Hamas’ assault also set in motion attacks from other Iranian-backed militias, opening up a war front between Israel and Hezbollah fighters to the north in Lebanon. And for months, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthis have terrorized commercial shipping in the Red Sea.Biden has faced fierce criticism for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war tactics.Harris, as early as March,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/03/04/1234822836/kamala-harris-benny-gantz-gaza-cease-fire-israel-hamas" target="_blank">publicly</a>&nbsp;criticized Israel over the humanitarian “<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-vp-harris-urges-israeli-government-do-more-boost-aid-into-gaza-2024-03-03/" target="_blank">catastrophe</a>” in Gaza and called for an immediate six-week cease-fire.Harris, who became the Democratic presidential nominee in mid-summer after Biden dropped his bid, has repeatedly said she defends Israel’s right to defend itself but that “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/07/25/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-following-meeting-with-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-of-israel/" target="_blank">how it does so matters</a>.”Protesters could be heard in the distance Monday as Harris planted a memorial tree at the vice president’s residence to mark the one-year anniversary of the Oct. 7 attack. Pro-Palestinian activists protesting the death toll in Gaza have marched and rallied throughout the U.S. during the past year.Harris&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/one-year-oct-7-attack-israel-us-leaders-honor-victims-and-protesters-march" target="_blank">told</a>&nbsp;reporters that the administration is “not giving up” on negotiating a cease-fire deal and release of hostages, an effort that has so far floundered.“It’s one of the most important ways we will be able to end this war and bring any type of stability to the region. It’s one of the highest priorities of this administration,” she said.She has not indicated any slowdown or conditions on assistance to Israel if elected — though she continues to advocate for a two-state solution.“Trump may give Jerusalem less public chastising and criticism, but I’m not sure the policy differences would be that great either,” Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and foreign policy research director at the Brookings Institution, told States Newsroom. O’Hanlon recently published an article arguing the Trump and Harris defense strategies would at least “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-partially-convergent-trump-and-harris-defense-policies/" target="_blank">partially</a>” converge.Trump maintains that Oct. 7 “would never have happened” had he been in office, and he accuses the Biden administration of inviting the attack because of its “weak” relationship with Iran.“What is needed more than ever is a return of unwavering American leadership and unquestioned American strength. We were strong, we were powerful … That’s what I intend to deliver as the 47th president of the United States,” he said Monday while in Miami marking one year since the ambush on Israel.The attack also wrecked any forward progress on the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.state.gov/the-abraham-accords/" target="_blank">Abraham Accords</a>&nbsp;— Trump’s signature Middle East achievement that created full diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. While those established channels remain steady, the Biden administration’s efforts to strike a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia are now at a standstill.Trump is increasingly selling himself on the campaign trail as the candidate of stability who can quash Iran’s aggression — which is pretty much a “standard approach to campaigning,” Lindsay said.“He is not the first challenger to argue that the incumbent president has been weak.”But Lindsay said, “the important question isn’t whether he was tougher, it’s whether his policies were more effective.”For example, the Iranian-backed so-called “axis of resistance” militias currently upending the Middle East were also operating during Trump’s presidency.“(They) pre-dated his coming into office but it’s not that a Trump administration ended that network of anti-Western, anti-Israeli groups,” Lindsay said. “And during the Trump administration it was the case that Iran both underwrote attacks on American troops and actually launched attacks on American troops.”Trump drew attention last week to an early January 2020 barrage on U.S. troops in Iraq when he again&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/trump-describes-traumatic-brain-injuries-sustained-us-troops-iraq-headache" target="_blank">described</a>&nbsp;the traumatic brain injuries they suffered as “headaches.”U.S. troops&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/us-troops-middle-east-mapping-military-presence" target="_blank">in Iraq and Syria</a>, already a target, have come under increasing fire from Iran-backed militants, with more than 100&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/drone-strike-risks-dangerous-us-iran-escalation" target="_blank">attacks</a>&nbsp;on U.S. service members since Israel began its post-Oct. 7 offensive. A drone strike in January&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/28/politics/us-troops-drone-attack-jordan/index.html" target="_blank">killed</a>&nbsp;three U.S. soldiers and injured 30 at an outpost in Jordan on the Syrian border. The U.S. retaliated by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/02/02/1228132782/us-biden-iran-drone-response-strike" target="_blank">launching</a>&nbsp;more than 100 precision rockets at 85 of Iran military sites in Iraq and Syria.The U.S. assisted Israel&nbsp;<a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3923123/us-assets-in-mediterranean-again-helped-defend-israel-against-iranian-missiles/" target="_blank">twice</a>&nbsp;in 2024 in intercepting rockets fired directly from Iran — once in April following Israel’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, and again in September after Israel’s assassination of Iranian-backed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, Lebanon.“We’re in the last months of the Biden presidency, and Biden’s own, I think, personal influence here is quite diminished. And you know, I can’t predict what Trump policy really would be. I assume he would be less likely to be trying to restrain the Israelis, but so is the Biden administration. And maybe that is a Biden-Harris policy,” Elliott Abrams, CFR’s senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, told reporters on Oct. 2, the day after Iran launched its second direct&nbsp;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/01/iran-imminent-ballistic-missile-attack-israel-us-warns" target="_blank">attack</a>.<h2>Ukraine and NATO</h2>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with both&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/zelenskyy-washington-meets-us-leaders-beef-support-ukraine" target="_blank">Harris</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/09/27/u-s-government-unveils-charges-against-iranians-who-hacked-into-trump-2024-campaign/" target="_blank">Trump</a>&nbsp;in recent weeks to shore up continued U.S. support for his country’s ongoing war against Russia’s occupation.Harris’ meeting with the Ukrainian leader was her seventh, and she pledged continued aid for the eastern European nation on the principle that Putin would continue marching into Europe if allies relent on Ukraine.Harris supports continued U.S. assistance, which has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine" target="_blank">totaled</a>&nbsp;roughly $175 billion since 2022. At the Ukraine peace&nbsp;<a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/06/16/joint-communique-on-a-peace-framework-summit-on-peace-in-ukraine/" target="_blank">summit</a>&nbsp;in Switzerland in June, Harris&nbsp;<a href="https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20240723-from-gaza-to-china-where-kamala-harris-stands-on-foreign-policy-issues" target="_blank">pledged</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/jun-15-2024-/vice-president-kamala-harris-announces-over-1-billion-bolster-ukraines-energy-sector-address-humanitarian-needs-and-strengthen-civilian-security" target="_blank">nearly</a>&nbsp;$2 billion, some new and some redirected, to bolster the country’s energy sector and add to humanitarian efforts.The vice president has&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/02/19/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-the-munich-security-conference/" target="_blank">represented</a>&nbsp;the U.S.&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/18/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-the-munich-security-conference-2/" target="_blank">three</a>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/02/16/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-at-the-munich-security-conference-munich-germany/" target="_blank">times</a>&nbsp;at the annual Munich Security Conference in Germany, where she praised the NATO alliance and said the U.S. commitment to its principles is “ironclad.”When facing Harris on the presidential debate stage in September, Trump&nbsp;<a href="https://www.newsfromthestates.com/article/harris-tears-trump-over-abortion-rights-and-race-tense-presidential-debate" target="_blank">refused</a>&nbsp;to answer whether he wants Ukraine to be victorious over Russia.Trump’s rhetoric and past behavior “spells bad news for Ukraine,” Waxman said.“He is likely to reduce American support for Ukraine and push Ukraine to make concessions to Russia. Overall, Trump’s transactional approach to leader-to-leader diplomacy is likely to benefit Putin,” Waxman continued. “Whereas Harris wants to invest in alliances like NATO, Trump is skeptical of them.”That type of leader-to-leader communication was notoriously highlighted in 2019 when U.S. House lawmakers&nbsp;<a href="https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-S4-4-9/ALDE_00000035/" target="_blank">impeached</a>&nbsp;Trump for directly threatening to withhold Ukraine aid if Zelenskyy did not announce an investigation into Biden — Trump’s presidential campaign rival at the time. The Senate acquitted Trump.Like his campaign line on the Israel attack, Trump also repeatedly claims that had he been in office, instead of Biden, Russia would have never launched its February 2022 attack on Ukraine.“The war in Ukraine did not begin in February of ‘22, it began back in 2014,” Lindsay said, referring to Putin’s forced annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.Trump’s own administration&nbsp;<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/on-the-record-the-u-s-administrations-actions-on-russia/" target="_blank">expanded</a>&nbsp;Obama-era sanctions meant to punish Russia’s actions in Crimea.“Experts can argue about how to dole out criticism across administrations, but clearly the issue of Russian support for a notionally independent insurrection in eastern Ukraine was not solved during the Trump presidency,” Lindsay continued.<h2>China and trade</h2>Foreign trade is a “political hot potato,” and neither Harris nor Trump are offering much clarity for U.S. trading partners around the world, Mary E. Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, told States Newsroom in an interview.Lovely described the Biden-Harris approach as multipronged, in that they’ve instituted policies to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. while also aiming to maintain good trade relationships with partner nations.The tightrope walk becomes even trickier as U.S. policy also&nbsp;<a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/while-us-and-china-decouple-eu-and-china-deepen-trade-dependencies" target="_blank">disincentivizes</a>&nbsp;materials and components from China — one of the world’s largest trading nations — in the final products imported from trading partners. Think: components in solar panels and electric vehicles.The Biden administration’s major legislative accomplishments — the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act — provided major subsidies for “reshoring,” or returning to the U.S., clean energy and semiconductor production. But the policies were not without risks to U.S. trading partners.“We had a lot of things (in the legislation), including things that upset the allies — you know, subsidies for American businesses, that they saw potentially as pulling investment out of their economies,” Lovely said.“These are things that the European Union, Japan, Korea were concerned about,” Lovely continued. “So we’ve seen it there — this tension between foreign policy and this idea of economic security.”While Lovely said she worries about how some of the Biden-Harris trade policies might affect competition and the nation’s ability to sign timely trade agreements, she said Trump’s plans are overall “destabilizing.”“The increased use of tariffs is misguided at best,” Lovely said.Trump’s promise to not only increase tariffs on Chinese imports to 60%, but also to slap flat 10% to 20% tariffs on all imports across the board is akin to “starting a trade war with the entire world.”“We’re not going to see those kinds of tariffs without retaliation,” Lovely said.If enacted, the tariffs would be particularly challenging for Indo-Pacific countries that rely on U.S. partnership in the face of China’s regional dominance.“I mean, you can imagine how this will go down in, say, Japan and Korea, two countries which rely on the U.S. for a security umbrella, which is why Trump thinks that he can do stuff to them. But they also have to protect their own economies,” Lovely said. “So it’s going to put them in a really terrible position because it’s very important for them to maintain their alliance with the U.S., economic as well as military.”But one thing is for sure, Lovely said: “Everybody wants to know what’s going to happen. Everybody in every embassy here in Washington.”