September corn closed up 4 3/4 cents and December corn was up 5 3/4 cents. September soybeans closed up 8 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 9 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 10 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 9 3/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was up 7 cents.

Ag markets were able to build off the late-session momentum seen Wednesday to trade higher Thursday in what was a widespread recovery session from a very bearish start to the week. Time will have to tell whether this is the start of a sustained bottoming attempt or simply another quick round of short-covering; but historical seasonality would suggest August or September is typically where corn and soy markets tend to look for a bottom. Traders will look to USDA to add to the recent yield forecast debate next Tuesday. In outside markets, crude oil futures are quickly back trading among the lowest prices seen since late June after five consecutive sessions lower, heading for a sixth on Thursday. Equities began Thursday higher before turning sharply lower by late morning as investors express uncertainty as the latest round of reciprocal tariffs officially go into effect Thursday following months of deals and deadline extensions.

With the unseasonal rally in boxed beef prices, the live cattle complex continues to challenge the market's resistance threshold, which also happens to be its all-time market high, as the cattle complex's strong fundamental footing of limited supplies amid unfathomable demand continues to lend support beyond anyone's wildest belief. It will be especially interesting to see what develops this week in the fed cash cattle market as though packers were able to buy some supply last week and commit those cattle to the nearby delivery option, they still need to stay engaged enough in the market to avoid being short bought in the weeks ahead and feedlot managers haven't been easy for packers to deal with in recent weeks either. Asking prices are firm in the South at $238 to $240, but are still not established in the North.

The feeder cattle complex again pushed into the closing bell fully and significantly higher. The slight pullback in the August contract likely has more to do with the fact that traders are moving their positions from the August contract into the currently most actively traded September contract, and not because of any fundamental rhyme or reason, as demand is just robust in the countryside; there's no other way to describe it.

One would think that on a day when midday pork cutout values are up over $4.00, the lean hog market would be rejoicing. With traders battling resistance pressure and with the morning's export sales report weaker, the market traded lower into the closing bell on Thursday. More than anything, it seems as though the market's resistance pressure is affecting traders most. Although they thought they had enough support to drive the complex higher earlier this week, the market's fundamentals haven't been as collectively supportive as initially hoped for.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/08/07143716/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for Audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed up 4 3/4 cents and December corn was up 5 3/4 cents. September soybeans closed up 8 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 9 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 10 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 9 3/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was up 7 cents.Ag markets were able to build off the late-session momentum seen Wednesday to trade higher Thursday in what was a widespread recovery session from a very bearish start to the week. Time will have to tell whether this is the start of a sustained bottoming attempt or simply another quick round of short-covering; but historical seasonality would suggest August or September is typically where corn and soy markets tend to look for a bottom. Traders will look to USDA to add to the recent yield forecast debate next Tuesday. In outside markets, crude oil futures are quickly back trading among the lowest prices seen since late June after five consecutive sessions lower, heading for a sixth on Thursday. Equities began Thursday higher before turning sharply lower by late morning as investors express uncertainty as the latest round of reciprocal tariffs officially go into effect Thursday following months of deals and deadline extensions.LIVESTOCK:With the unseasonal rally in boxed beef prices, the live cattle complex continues to challenge the market's resistance threshold, which also happens to be its all-time market high, as the cattle complex's strong fundamental footing of limited supplies amid unfathomable demand continues to lend support beyond anyone's wildest belief. It will be especially interesting to see what develops this week in the fed cash cattle market as though packers were able to buy some supply last week and commit those cattle to the nearby delivery option, they still need to stay engaged enough in the market to avoid being short bought in the weeks ahead and feedlot managers haven't been easy for packers to deal with in recent weeks either. Asking prices are firm in the South at $238 to $240, but are still not established in the North. The feeder cattle complex again pushed into the closing bell fully and significantly higher. The slight pullback in the August contract likely has more to do with the fact that traders are moving their positions from the August contract into the currently most actively traded September contract, and not because of any fundamental rhyme or reason, as demand is just robust in the countryside; there's no other way to describe it. One would think that on a day when midday pork cutout values are up over $4.00, the lean hog market would be rejoicing. With traders battling resistance pressure and with the morning's export sales report weaker, the market traded lower into the closing bell on Thursday. More than anything, it seems as though the market's resistance pressure is affecting traders most. Although they thought they had enough support to drive the complex higher earlier this week, the market's fundamentals haven't been as collectively supportive as initially hoped for.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/08/07143716/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for Audio</a>

Commodity markets daily recap

AccuWeather long-range experts say the transition to autumn will bring cooler air and sweater weather to millions of Americans. Others will be dealing with lingering summer heat, tropical storms, hurricanes, wildfires, or a smoky haze obscuring the sky. “Areas in the middle of the country, including Kansas to Wisconsin, will experience very pleasant and calm stretches of fall weather that will be perfect for fairs, festivals, and outdoor events like harvest,” said Long Range Expert Paul Pastelok. 

AccuWeather long-range experts say the transition to autumn will bring cooler air and sweater weather to millions of Americans. Others will be dealing with lingering summer heat, tropical storms, hurricanes, wildfires, or a smoky haze obscuring the sky. “Areas in the middle of the country, including Kansas to Wisconsin, will experience very pleasant and calm stretches of fall weather that will be perfect for fairs, festivals, and outdoor events like harvest,” said Long Range Expert Paul Pastelok.

Some predictions says fall may bring warmth and fuel wildfires

Uncertainty surrounding U.S. biofuel policy and continued trade tensions pushed second-quarter profits to multi-year lows for multiple crop trading companies, including ADM and Bunge. Ag equipment manufacturers also warned customers that increasing trade tensions will cause increased equipment prices in the second half of 2025. Reports show ADM posted its lowest second-quarter profit in five years as trade challenges and uncertain biofuel policies slowed sales and hurt trading and crop processing margins. 

The company said that full-year 2025 adjusted earnings could drop to around $4 a share, the lowest since 2020. ADM, Bunge, and Cargill have reported eroding profits in recent quarters because of ample crop supplies and thinning margins. One report showed adjusted earnings of $1.31 per share for the three months ending in June, the lowest point since 2018. AGCO Corporation and CNH Industrial also say customers will soon feel the impact of tariffs due to higher prices.

Uncertainty surrounding U.S. biofuel policy and continued trade tensions pushed second-quarter profits to multi-year lows for multiple crop trading companies, including ADM and Bunge. Ag equipment manufacturers also warned customers that increasing trade tensions will cause increased equipment prices in the second half of 2025. Reports show ADM posted its lowest second-quarter profit in five years as trade challenges and uncertain biofuel policies slowed sales and hurt trading and crop processing margins. The company said that full-year 2025 adjusted earnings could drop to around $4 a share, the lowest since 2020. ADM, Bunge, and Cargill have reported eroding profits in recent quarters because of ample crop supplies and thinning margins. One report showed adjusted earnings of $1.31 per share for the three months ending in June, the lowest point since 2018. AGCO Corporation and CNH Industrial also say customers will soon feel the impact of tariffs due to higher prices.-NAFB

Uncertainty hits agribusiness profits

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/08/06143944/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> to listen to the Wednesday closing markets.

September corn closed down 1 3/4 cents and December corn was down 3/4 cents. September soybeans closed down 6 cents and November soybeans were down 6 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 7 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 1/4 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 1 1/2 cents.

The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.59 at 98.19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 130.0 points at 44,366.0. December gold is down $2.10 at $3,432.60, September silver is up $0.11 at $37.94 and September copper is up $0.0255. September crude oil is down $0.87 at $64.29, September ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.0075, September RBOB gasoline is down $0.0025 and September natural gas is up $0.073.

September corn futures dropped another 1 3/4 cents on Wednesday, closing at $3.79 3/4. December futures were also down 3/4 cents to $4.01 1/4. December futures bears appeared to be making easy work of the $4.00 mark early Wednesday, before late-session bargain buyers stepped in to send prices back above the key level at least for now. For reference, the December 2024 board traded to a low price of $3.85 last August before reversing on late-season dryness, which ultimately trimmed the top end off U.S. yields as well. Seasonally speaking, August and September is a period where markets tend to look for a low.

Wednesday's EIA Petroleum Status report showed ethanol production in the U.S. averaged 1.081 million barrels per day last week, a decline of 15,000 barrels per day from the prior week's average. Last Friday, USDA reported the June monthly corn grind for ethanol in the U.S. totaled just under 448 million bushels (mb), lower than I had anticipated. Corn usage for ethanol through the marketing season has steadily lost its lead over 2023-24 after a very hot start last fall and is now just a 0.2% lead over last year, with USDA forecasting a 0.4% year-over-year increase. July and August are always wild cards for ethanol production, but at this rate, it seems unlikely that the U.S. will hit the USDA goal of 5.5 billion bushels in 2024-25. In positive news, ethanol margins remain steady with this week's USDA coproducts report showing that a bushel of corn produces $6.64 worth of products value in the Eastern Corn Belt. Ethanol exports are also strong, with June exports setting a monthly record at 173.7 million gallons. Ethanol exports to date are up 10%.

Traders will likely begin to look ahead to next week's WASDE report, where an increase in the corn yield estimate seems likely given the growing conditions thus far. That being said, I don't expect as bearish a forecast as compared to some of the private estimates being released in recent days, as USDA tends to slow play these developments, especially ahead of harvest. Perhaps this will serve as an opportunity for traders and algorithms to reset and offer some support to sinking prices. The aspect of next week's report that does keep me somewhat nervous is what USDA will find for old crop stocks, with the old crop price and spread action through summer certainly pointing to more corn relative to demand than has been estimated in this year's WASDE reports thus far.

The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.65. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 16 cents under the September board would indicate the Index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $3.63.

September soybeans fell 6 cents on Wednesday to $9.65 1/2. November soybeans were down 6 1/4 cents to $9.84 1/2. An early attempt higher in the soybean market was again met with fierce selling, dropping prices closer to the bearish objective of the early April low in the mid $9.70s for the November board.

Early strength in the soybean market can likely be attributed to ongoing rumors that the U.S. and China are closing in on an agreement, although traders may be losing some faith in these assertions as the weeks keep coming and going with no confirmed soybean business with China for the new crop season. Soybean oil futures were also able to trade higher on Wednesday, primarily on wider energy market strength at mid-week. Late session selling can most likely be tied to early yield forecasts from private firms, all of which are coming in above USDA's official record 52.5 bpa forecast.

The next few weeks of weather will be important for the soybean crop. Temperatures are slated to be above average across the majority of key growing regions, while rainfall chances are certainly present but may be scattered in some regions. The good news is that soil moisture levels through the wet July should be adequate to allow crops to sustain through a period of dryness if it comes to that.

The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.34. Wednesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 57 cents under the November board would indicate the Index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $9.28.

September Kansas City futures closed up 7 cents to $5.11 1/2 on Wednesday. Chicago futures were quiet, trading 1/4 cents higher on September futures. While MIAX Minneapolis spring wheat futures continued to struggle to find upward momentum, with the September contract down 1 1/2 cents in a quiet, narrow session. September KC futures were able to rebound from ugly price action on Tuesday, which set the lowest close for the most active hard red contract in just under five years. The short-term bullish target would be a pullback towards the 20-day moving average near $5.22 3/4.

In world wheat news, harvest is progressing in Russia with mixed results. The weekly International Grains Council (IGC) write-up noted improved yield prospects as harvest moves to the central regions, but also the potential for quality issues, namely low test weight. Private group SovEcon lowered its production forecast to 83.3 million metric tons (mmt), just a touch below the USDA July estimate of 83.5 mmt. Overall, traders in the marketplace are viewing a steady Russian crop, improved EU crop and good early prospects for both Argentine and Australian crops due later in 2025 as reasons for little concern regarding wheat availability. In good news, U.S. wheat offers remain competitive, with IGC noting hard red Gulf offers last week at $228 per ton, lower than most competing offers in their weekly rundown.

The DTN National HRW Index finished Tuesday at $4.52, while the DTN National HRS Index was at $5.27. Wednesday's futures close an implied basis of 53 cents under the September board for HRW, and 43 cents under the September board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.59 and $5.25, respectively.

By MATT PIKEClick <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/08/06143944/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> to listen to the Wednesday closing markets.GENERAL COMMENTS:September corn closed down 1 3/4 cents and December corn was down 3/4 cents. September soybeans closed down 6 cents and November soybeans were down 6 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 7 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 1/4 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 1 1/2 cents.The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.59 at 98.19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 130.0 points at 44,366.0. December gold is down $2.10 at $3,432.60, September silver is up $0.11 at $37.94 and September copper is up $0.0255. September crude oil is down $0.87 at $64.29, September ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.0075, September RBOB gasoline is down $0.0025 and September natural gas is up $0.073.CORN:September corn futures dropped another 1 3/4 cents on Wednesday, closing at $3.79 3/4. December futures were also down 3/4 cents to $4.01 1/4. December futures bears appeared to be making easy work of the $4.00 mark early Wednesday, before late-session bargain buyers stepped in to send prices back above the key level at least for now. For reference, the December 2024 board traded to a low price of $3.85 last August before reversing on late-season dryness, which ultimately trimmed the top end off U.S. yields as well. Seasonally speaking, August and September is a period where markets tend to look for a low.Wednesday's EIA Petroleum Status report showed ethanol production in the U.S. averaged 1.081 million barrels per day last week, a decline of 15,000 barrels per day from the prior week's average. Last Friday, USDA reported the June monthly corn grind for ethanol in the U.S. totaled just under 448 million bushels (mb), lower than I had anticipated. Corn usage for ethanol through the marketing season has steadily lost its lead over 2023-24 after a very hot start last fall and is now just a 0.2% lead over last year, with USDA forecasting a 0.4% year-over-year increase. July and August are always wild cards for ethanol production, but at this rate, it seems unlikely that the U.S. will hit the USDA goal of 5.5 billion bushels in 2024-25. In positive news, ethanol margins remain steady with this week's USDA coproducts report showing that a bushel of corn produces $6.64 worth of products value in the Eastern Corn Belt. Ethanol exports are also strong, with June exports setting a monthly record at 173.7 million gallons. Ethanol exports to date are up 10%.Traders will likely begin to look ahead to next week's WASDE report, where an increase in the corn yield estimate seems likely given the growing conditions thus far. That being said, I don't expect as bearish a forecast as compared to some of the private estimates being released in recent days, as USDA tends to slow play these developments, especially ahead of harvest. Perhaps this will serve as an opportunity for traders and algorithms to reset and offer some support to sinking prices. The aspect of next week's report that does keep me somewhat nervous is what USDA will find for old crop stocks, with the old crop price and spread action through summer certainly pointing to more corn relative to demand than has been estimated in this year's WASDE reports thus far.The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.65. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 16 cents under the September board would indicate the Index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $3.63.SOYBEANS:September soybeans fell 6 cents on Wednesday to $9.65 1/2. November soybeans were down 6 1/4 cents to $9.84 1/2. An early attempt higher in the soybean market was again met with fierce selling, dropping prices closer to the bearish objective of the early April low in the mid $9.70s for the November board.Early strength in the soybean market can likely be attributed to ongoing rumors that the U.S. and China are closing in on an agreement, although traders may be losing some faith in these assertions as the weeks keep coming and going with no confirmed soybean business with China for the new crop season. Soybean oil futures were also able to trade higher on Wednesday, primarily on wider energy market strength at mid-week. Late session selling can most likely be tied to early yield forecasts from private firms, all of which are coming in above USDA's official record 52.5 bpa forecast.The next few weeks of weather will be important for the soybean crop. Temperatures are slated to be above average across the majority of key growing regions, while rainfall chances are certainly present but may be scattered in some regions. The good news is that soil moisture levels through the wet July should be adequate to allow crops to sustain through a period of dryness if it comes to that.The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.34. Wednesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 57 cents under the November board would indicate the Index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $9.28.WHEAT:September Kansas City futures closed up 7 cents to $5.11 1/2 on Wednesday. Chicago futures were quiet, trading 1/4 cents higher on September futures. While MIAX Minneapolis spring wheat futures continued to struggle to find upward momentum, with the September contract down 1 1/2 cents in a quiet, narrow session. September KC futures were able to rebound from ugly price action on Tuesday, which set the lowest close for the most active hard red contract in just under five years. The short-term bullish target would be a pullback towards the 20-day moving average near $5.22 3/4.In world wheat news, harvest is progressing in Russia with mixed results. The weekly International Grains Council (IGC) write-up noted improved yield prospects as harvest moves to the central regions, but also the potential for quality issues, namely low test weight. Private group SovEcon lowered its production forecast to 83.3 million metric tons (mmt), just a touch below the USDA July estimate of 83.5 mmt. Overall, traders in the marketplace are viewing a steady Russian crop, improved EU crop and good early prospects for both Argentine and Australian crops due later in 2025 as reasons for little concern regarding wheat availability. In good news, U.S. wheat offers remain competitive, with IGC noting hard red Gulf offers last week at $228 per ton, lower than most competing offers in their weekly rundown.The DTN National HRW Index finished Tuesday at $4.52, while the DTN National HRS Index was at $5.27. Wednesday's futures close an implied basis of 53 cents under the September board for HRW, and 43 cents under the September board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.59 and $5.25, respectively.

More than 1,600 Hormel workers have filed a class action lawsuit alleging that the meat processor violated Minnesota’s earned sick and safe time law for 14 months by forcing workers to use vacation time if they called in sick. Tim Louris, the attorney representing the workers at the Austin, Minnesota, plant, said Hormel refused to give most of the production, maintenance, and quality control employees additional paid leave when the sick and safe time law took effect last year. 

The sick and safe time law requires employers to provide one hour of paid leave for every 30 hours worked – up to six days a year for a full-time employee. The workers’ union, challenged Hormel, and a labor arbitrator ruled earlier this year that the company couldn’t use paid vacation to comply with the state’s law. Hormel said in a statement that it will not comment on pending litigation. 

More than 1,600 Hormel workers have filed a class action lawsuit alleging that the meat processor violated Minnesota’s earned sick and safe time law for 14 months by forcing workers to use vacation time if they called in sick. Tim Louris, the attorney representing the workers at the Austin, Minnesota, plant, said Hormel refused to give most of the production, maintenance, and quality control employees additional paid leave when the sick and safe time law took effect last year. The sick and safe time law requires employers to provide one hour of paid leave for every 30 hours worked – up to six days a year for a full-time employee. The workers’ union, challenged Hormel, and a labor arbitrator ruled earlier this year that the company couldn’t use paid vacation to comply with the state’s law. Hormel said in a statement that it will not comment on pending litigation. -NAFB

Workers sue Hormel Foods over sick leave

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined in July as farmer sentiment continued to weaken. The barometer fell 11 points from June to register at 135 in July, a reading that came from U.S. farmers’ weaker perceptions of both current conditions and future expectations. The July Current Conditions Index dropped 17 points from the previous month to 127.  The Future Expectations Index posted a smaller drop of seven points to 139. 

Driving the weaker income prospects for 2025 were farmers’ assessments of current conditions. Despite lower scores on the three principal farmer sentiment indexes, sentiment still remains notably higher than at the same time a year ago. Almost three-fourths of the July survey respondents reported that U.S. policy is headed in the right direction. The Farm Financial Performance Index reflected concerns about weak income prospects for 2025, falling 14 points from June to 90. The Farmland Value Expectations Index was also lower. 

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer declined in July as farmer sentiment continued to weaken. The barometer fell 11 points from June to register at 135 in July, a reading that came from U.S. farmers’ weaker perceptions of both current conditions and future expectations. The July Current Conditions Index dropped 17 points from the previous month to 127. The Future Expectations Index posted a smaller drop of seven points to 139. Driving the weaker income prospects for 2025 were farmers’ assessments of current conditions. Despite lower scores on the three principal farmer sentiment indexes, sentiment still remains notably higher than at the same time a year ago. Almost three-fourths of the July survey respondents reported that U.S. policy is headed in the right direction. The Farm Financial Performance Index reflected concerns about weak income prospects for 2025, falling 14 points from June to 90. The Farmland Value Expectations Index was also lower. -NAFB

Farmer sentiment grows weaker

September corn closed down 5 1/2 cents and December corn was down 5 cents. September soybeans closed down 3 3/4 cents and November soybeans were down 3 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 12 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 8 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 2 3/4 cents.

What bullish spark there was in the soybean market early Tuesday was quick to fade by midmorning as prices turned lower amid bearish influence from surrounding ag markets. Corn futures fell once again to new lows as there is just little bullish news to be found to break traders' focus on recent unveiling of a number of private yield estimates which are all coming in well above the USDA trendline forecast. For wheat markets, a fresh burst of harvest pressure sank winter wheat varieties Tuesday, as traders see little reason for concern regarding available wheat supplies in the immediate future. Outside markets for Tuesday also leaned negatively on ag interests, with crude oil markets still feeling the weight of heightened production from OPEC+. Meanwhile equities turned lower as well by midmorning, caught between growth prospects from an assumed impending interest rate cut in the next FOMC meeting in September and lingering uncertainty regarding the next step in the tariff/trade war.

The live cattle complex was off to a sporty rally throughout the day, as traders seem to be more confident in the market's fundamental footing than they were on Monday. There are a few asking prices now noted in the South at $238 to $240, but the North continues to remain quiet. It's unlikely that any cash cattle trade will develop until Thursday or Friday. The market still has some upward room to trade as the resistance plane sits at $230.

The feeder cattle complex had an aggressive rally for the day as all of the contracts traded $5.00 and more higher for the bulk of the session. More than anything, it seems as though traders have shaken the jitters they possessed on Monday and are now back to believing in the market's robust fundamental position. Feeder cattle demand in the countryside hasn't wavered whatsoever, and doesn't seem to care what the board is doing, as buyers know that supplies are thin and that that isn't going to change any time soon.

The lean hog complex continued to trade higher into Tuesday's closing bell as traders have found enough support in the marketplace to blow past the market's previous resistance at $91.00. It's difficult to say where traders are getting this extra momentum from, as we can't see what pork demand is doing because of packers' failure to submit data this morning, but the slight improvement in the cash market is surely helping.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/08/05142825/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed down 5 1/2 cents and December corn was down 5 cents. September soybeans closed down 3 3/4 cents and November soybeans were down 3 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 12 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 8 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 2 3/4 cents.What bullish spark there was in the soybean market early Tuesday was quick to fade by midmorning as prices turned lower amid bearish influence from surrounding ag markets. Corn futures fell once again to new lows as there is just little bullish news to be found to break traders' focus on recent unveiling of a number of private yield estimates which are all coming in well above the USDA trendline forecast. For wheat markets, a fresh burst of harvest pressure sank winter wheat varieties Tuesday, as traders see little reason for concern regarding available wheat supplies in the immediate future. Outside markets for Tuesday also leaned negatively on ag interests, with crude oil markets still feeling the weight of heightened production from OPEC+. Meanwhile equities turned lower as well by midmorning, caught between growth prospects from an assumed impending interest rate cut in the next FOMC meeting in September and lingering uncertainty regarding the next step in the tariff/trade war.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex was off to a sporty rally throughout the day, as traders seem to be more confident in the market's fundamental footing than they were on Monday. There are a few asking prices now noted in the South at $238 to $240, but the North continues to remain quiet. It's unlikely that any cash cattle trade will develop until Thursday or Friday. The market still has some upward room to trade as the resistance plane sits at $230.The feeder cattle complex had an aggressive rally for the day as all of the contracts traded $5.00 and more higher for the bulk of the session. More than anything, it seems as though traders have shaken the jitters they possessed on Monday and are now back to believing in the market's robust fundamental position. Feeder cattle demand in the countryside hasn't wavered whatsoever, and doesn't seem to care what the board is doing, as buyers know that supplies are thin and that that isn't going to change any time soon.The lean hog complex continued to trade higher into Tuesday's closing bell as traders have found enough support in the marketplace to blow past the market's previous resistance at $91.00. It's difficult to say where traders are getting this extra momentum from, as we can't see what pork demand is doing because of packers' failure to submit data this morning, but the slight improvement in the cash market is surely helping.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/08/05142825/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

Farm real estate prices rose year-over-year nationally, as every state saw gains in land values, according to an annual report from the Ag Department. The value of land and buildings on farms rose 4.3% this year, to $4,350, the agency said after a survey of more than 28,000 operations conducted April–June. Cropland costs increased 4.7%, to $5,830 an acre, and pasture value rose 4.9%, to $1,920 an acre. 

Iowa ag land was valued at $9,790 an acre, up 3.9% on an annual basis, and Illinois saw gains of 2.6%, to $8,930 an acre. In Missouri, farmland values remain relatively stable overall, averaging $8,596 per acre, only slightly higher from the previous year. Nebraska land values rose to $4,250 an acre versus $4,080 a year earlier. Kansas ag real estate increased 4.4%, to $3,100 an acre, on average.&nbsp;Iowa and Illinois are the biggest producers of corn and soybeans in the U.S.

Farm real estate prices rose year-over-year nationally, as every state saw gains in land values, according to an annual report from the Ag Department. The value of land and buildings on farms rose 4.3% this year, to $4,350, the agency said after a survey of more than 28,000 operations conducted April–June. Cropland costs increased 4.7%, to $5,830 an acre, and pasture value rose 4.9%, to $1,920 an acre. Iowa ag land was valued at $9,790 an acre, up 3.9% on an annual basis, and Illinois saw gains of 2.6%, to $8,930 an acre. In Missouri, farmland values remain relatively stable overall, averaging $8,596 per acre, only slightly higher from the previous year. Nebraska land values rose to $4,250 an acre versus $4,080 a year earlier. Kansas ag real estate increased 4.4%, to $3,100 an acre, on average.&nbsp;Iowa and Illinois are the biggest producers of corn and soybeans in the U.S.-NAFB

Farm real estate prices up year-over-year

While biological and chemical threats to corn yields are well understood, a more technological conflict has been center: farm equipment repair availability. In what seems to be a direct response to antitrust allegations in the ongoing FTC v. John Deere right-to-repair lawsuit, the equipment giant has unveiled a revamped digital service platform aimed at giving equipment owners greater control over the maintenance, diagnostics, and repair of their machinery. 

The new tool, Operations Center PRO Service, is now accessible through the John Deere Operations Center app for equipment owners in the U.S. and Canada. It is designed to allow equipment owners to access repair diagnostics and service data. Available via annual subscription starting at $195 per machine. Deere says development of the tool supports customer self-repair.

While biological and chemical threats to corn yields are well understood, a more technological conflict has been center: farm equipment repair availability. In what seems to be a direct response to antitrust allegations in the ongoing FTC v. John Deere right-to-repair lawsuit, the equipment giant has unveiled a revamped digital service platform aimed at giving equipment owners greater control over the maintenance, diagnostics, and repair of their machinery. The new tool, Operations Center PRO Service, is now accessible through the John Deere Operations Center app for equipment owners in the U.S. and Canada. It is designed to allow equipment owners to access repair diagnostics and service data. Available via annual subscription starting at $195 per machine. Deere says development of the tool supports customer self-repair.-NAFB

Repair rights at crossroads as Deere launches diagnostics tool 

September corn closed down 2 1/2 cents and December corn was down 3 3/4 cents. September soybeans closed up 5 3/4 cents and November soybeans were up 5 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 1 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was unchanged, September Minneapolis wheat was up 3/4 cents.

Row-crop futures were quiet but mostly positive for the session Monday, except corn futures, which fell from early gains ahead of anticipated steady to higher crop ratings from the USDA later Monday afternoon. Corn and soybean markets in general find themselves in a similar situation compared to this point last year, with large yield ideas driving prices lower. Traders this time around will again have to decide whether to continue the selloff or display heightened caution this year following last year's yield falloff through fall. Outside markets were mixed with equities surging in a correction of Friday's bearish action, while energy markets continue to plummet from last week's monthly highs amid renewed tariff uncertainty specifically as it pertains to Russia and their oil partners, as well as an additional OPEC+ production increase for September announced on Sunday.

The live cattle complex is trading mixed as traders continue to believe in and see the robust support of the cattle market's fundamental position, but at the same time, traders also are aware of the elevated position of the futures complex and don't want to welcome any more unwanted volatility into the marketplace. After gapping higher at the open then faltering midday, the contracts ultimately finished softly higher.

Originally, the feeder cattle complex was traded higher, but as the day has progressed, traders seemed less confident, which consequently had the feeder cattle complex trading lower the second half of the day right until the closing bell when they rallied and finished modestly higher, just like the fat cattle. The spot September contract is less than $10.00 away from its resistance threshold, which is slightly limiting to traders, as they aren't certain whether they possess enough support to challenge that threshold.

The lean hog complex continued to grind higher as traders are pleased with the continued note of stronger pork demand and are appearing willing to challenge the market's nearby resistance threshold at $91.00 in the spot October contract. It will remain imperative that demand is undoubtedly supportive if traders are to be able to continue this rally, because without fundamental support, the market won't likely be able to trade much higher.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/08/04145304/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed down 2 1/2 cents and December corn was down 3 3/4 cents. September soybeans closed up 5 3/4 cents and November soybeans were up 5 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 1 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was unchanged, September Minneapolis wheat was up 3/4 cents.Row-crop futures were quiet but mostly positive for the session Monday, except corn futures, which fell from early gains ahead of anticipated steady to higher crop ratings from the USDA later Monday afternoon. Corn and soybean markets in general find themselves in a similar situation compared to this point last year, with large yield ideas driving prices lower. Traders this time around will again have to decide whether to continue the selloff or display heightened caution this year following last year's yield falloff through fall. Outside markets were mixed with equities surging in a correction of Friday's bearish action, while energy markets continue to plummet from last week's monthly highs amid renewed tariff uncertainty specifically as it pertains to Russia and their oil partners, as well as an additional OPEC+ production increase for September announced on Sunday.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex is trading mixed as traders continue to believe in and see the robust support of the cattle market's fundamental position, but at the same time, traders also are aware of the elevated position of the futures complex and don't want to welcome any more unwanted volatility into the marketplace. After gapping higher at the open then faltering midday, the contracts ultimately finished softly higher.Originally, the feeder cattle complex was traded higher, but as the day has progressed, traders seemed less confident, which consequently had the feeder cattle complex trading lower the second half of the day right until the closing bell when they rallied and finished modestly higher, just like the fat cattle. The spot September contract is less than $10.00 away from its resistance threshold, which is slightly limiting to traders, as they aren't certain whether they possess enough support to challenge that threshold.The lean hog complex continued to grind higher as traders are pleased with the continued note of stronger pork demand and are appearing willing to challenge the market's nearby resistance threshold at $91.00 in the spot October contract. It will remain imperative that demand is undoubtedly supportive if traders are to be able to continue this rally, because without fundamental support, the market won't likely be able to trade much higher.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/08/04145304/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

For the first time in more than two decades, Australia will accept shipments of fresh and frozen U.S. beef. Kent Bacus, executive director of government affairs with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, says this is a huge win. “There’s been really no scientific justification to keep us out," and “This is just a lot of protection and these regulatory burdens we’ve had to overcome.” Bacus says Australia isn’t likely to be a huge export market for U.S. beef, but it’s really about opportunities in other countries."

“The fact is we are going to continue to be very competitive against the Australians in those markets.” While the U.S. hasn’t exported beef to Australia since the trade agreement between the two countries was implemented in 2005, Australia has sold more than $28.7 billion worth of its beef to the U.S.

For the first time in more than two decades, Australia will accept shipments of fresh and frozen U.S. beef. Kent Bacus, executive director of government affairs with the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, says this is a huge win. “There’s been really no scientific justification to keep us out," and “This is just a lot of protection and these regulatory burdens we’ve had to overcome.” Bacus says Australia isn’t likely to be a huge export market for U.S. beef, but it’s really about opportunities in other countries."“The fact is we are going to continue to be very competitive against the Australians in those markets.” While the U.S. hasn’t exported beef to Australia since the trade agreement between the two countries was implemented in 2005, Australia has sold more than $28.7 billion worth of its beef to the U.S.-NAFB

Australia reopening its market to U.S. beef 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced loan interest rates for August 2025, those rates were effective Aug. 1st. Farm Service Agency (FSA) loans provide important access to capital to help agricultural producers start or expand their farming operation, purchase equipment and storage structures or meet cash flow needs. FSA offers farm ownership, operating and emergency loans with favorable interest rates and terms to help eligible agricultural producers obtain financing needed to start, expand or maintain a family agricultural operation.

FSA also offers guaranteed loans through commercial lenders at rates set by those lenders.  Additionally, FSA provides low-interest financing to producers to build or upgrade on-farm storage facilities and purchase handling equipment and loans that provide interim financing to help producers meet cash flow needs without having to sell their commodities when market prices are low. To access an interactive online, step-by-step guide through the loan process, visit the Loan Assistance Tool at <a href="https://www.farmers.gov/loans">farmers.gov</a>.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced loan interest rates for August 2025, those rates were effective Aug. 1st. Farm Service Agency (FSA) loans provide important access to capital to help agricultural producers start or expand their farming operation, purchase equipment and storage structures or meet cash flow needs. FSA offers farm ownership, operating and emergency loans with favorable interest rates and terms to help eligible agricultural producers obtain financing needed to start, expand or maintain a family agricultural operation. FSA also offers guaranteed loans through commercial lenders at rates set by those lenders.  Additionally, FSA provides low-interest financing to producers to build or upgrade on-farm storage facilities and purchase handling equipment and loans that provide interim financing to help producers meet cash flow needs without having to sell their commodities when market prices are low. To access an interactive online, step-by-step guide through the loan process, visit the Loan Assistance Tool at <a href="https://www.farmers.gov/loans">farmers.gov</a>.-NAFB

USDA announces August 2025 lending rates for producers

September corn closed down 4 1/2 cents and December corn was down 3 cents. September soybeans closed unchanged, and November soybeans were unchanged. September KC wheat closed down 7 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 6 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 5 1/2 cents.

September corn closed down 10 cents and December corn was down 8 1/4 cents. September soybeans closed down 32 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 31 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 7 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 21 1/2 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was down 12 1/2 cents.

Ag markets were mixed to close the week in a quiet session in which macroeconomic news was in the spotlight. The Aug. 1 deadline for tariffs arrived at midnight Friday morning, with the Trump administration announcing a 7-day grace period before newly announced sweeping tariffs will take effect. Adding to investor worries on Friday was a surprisingly shaky July jobs report which showed a slowdown in job creation through early summer. The thus-far resilient labor market in 2025 has been a key pillar which the Fed has pointed to in its decisions to hold rates steady, with the market now widely expecting a series of cuts later this fall. As for ag markets, the direct effects of Friday's tariff announcements remain relatively unknown, as many key trading partners had previously struck deals with the Trump administration, while top partners Canada and Mexico will still get exemptions for goods under USMCA. The initial weakness for Friday stemmed heavily from the energy sector, where a sharp moves lower in crude oil futures as well as RBOB gasoline and diesel were felt in ag markets such as soybean oil and corn.

Following Thursday's technical turbulence, the live cattle complex got back to trading higher as traders were pleased to see the fed cash cattle market trading higher. A light trade has been reported in Kansas at $236, which is $1.00 higher than Thursday's trade and $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average. A few deals have also been reported in Texas at $235, which is fully steady with Thursday's trade. Asking prices remain firm in the South at $236 plus and in the North at $384 plus. More trade will likely develop throughout the afternoon, and once again, feedlot managers have been rewarded for their patient willingness to trade cattle later in the week as packers have upped their bids.

The feeder cattle complex also traded higher as traders have regained their focus from sheer panic and chaos, to one that's more clear and more stable, and is fixated on the current thriving performance of the cattle complex. Even though the futures complex dived lower Thursday afternoon, that hasn't affected demand in the countryside whatsoever.

The lean hog complex is trading higher into Friday's noon hour as traders are pleased with the uptick in pork demand late this week and are also grateful for the stability found throughout the futures complex, as traders have seemed to establish a new bottom in the market for at least this current move. August lean hogs are up $0.12 at $107.25, October lean hogs are up $0.40 at $89.97 and December lean hogs are up $0.35 at $82.07. Given that packers were so aggressive in the market earlier this week, it's unlikely that they'll do much more buying this afternoon, as their needs are fulfilled in the cash sector.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/08/01150741/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed down 4 1/2 cents and December corn was down 3 cents. September soybeans closed unchanged, and November soybeans were unchanged. September KC wheat closed down 7 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 6 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 5 1/2 cents.For the Week:September corn closed down 10 cents and December corn was down 8 1/4 cents. September soybeans closed down 32 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 31 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 7 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 21 1/2 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was down 12 1/2 cents.Ag markets were mixed to close the week in a quiet session in which macroeconomic news was in the spotlight. The Aug. 1 deadline for tariffs arrived at midnight Friday morning, with the Trump administration announcing a 7-day grace period before newly announced sweeping tariffs will take effect. Adding to investor worries on Friday was a surprisingly shaky July jobs report which showed a slowdown in job creation through early summer. The thus-far resilient labor market in 2025 has been a key pillar which the Fed has pointed to in its decisions to hold rates steady, with the market now widely expecting a series of cuts later this fall. As for ag markets, the direct effects of Friday's tariff announcements remain relatively unknown, as many key trading partners had previously struck deals with the Trump administration, while top partners Canada and Mexico will still get exemptions for goods under USMCA. The initial weakness for Friday stemmed heavily from the energy sector, where a sharp moves lower in crude oil futures as well as RBOB gasoline and diesel were felt in ag markets such as soybean oil and corn.LIVESTOCK:Following Thursday's technical turbulence, the live cattle complex got back to trading higher as traders were pleased to see the fed cash cattle market trading higher. A light trade has been reported in Kansas at $236, which is $1.00 higher than Thursday's trade and $3.00 higher than last week's weighted average. A few deals have also been reported in Texas at $235, which is fully steady with Thursday's trade. Asking prices remain firm in the South at $236 plus and in the North at $384 plus. More trade will likely develop throughout the afternoon, and once again, feedlot managers have been rewarded for their patient willingness to trade cattle later in the week as packers have upped their bids. The feeder cattle complex also traded higher as traders have regained their focus from sheer panic and chaos, to one that's more clear and more stable, and is fixated on the current thriving performance of the cattle complex. Even though the futures complex dived lower Thursday afternoon, that hasn't affected demand in the countryside whatsoever.The lean hog complex is trading higher into Friday's noon hour as traders are pleased with the uptick in pork demand late this week and are also grateful for the stability found throughout the futures complex, as traders have seemed to establish a new bottom in the market for at least this current move. August lean hogs are up $0.12 at $107.25, October lean hogs are up $0.40 at $89.97 and December lean hogs are up $0.35 at $82.07. Given that packers were so aggressive in the market earlier this week, it's unlikely that they'll do much more buying this afternoon, as their needs are fulfilled in the cash sector.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/08/01150741/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

President Donald Trump announced another in a series of recent trade deals, this time with the Republic of South Korea. He says the deal amounts to an investment of $350 billion in U.S. goods, which includes agricultural products. South Korea will also purchase an additional $100 billion in liquefied natural gas and other energy products. The President says U.S. goods will be traded with South Korea at a zero-tariff rate, while South Korea will pay a 15 percent tariff on U.S. goods. 

“South Korea is one of our longest-established trading partners, so the Council is happy to see the administration show a commitment to building on those years of mutual respect and trade with the negotiation of this newest trade deal,” says U.S. Grains Council CEO Ryan LeGrand. “Korea was our fifth-largest trading partner in grains in all forms, with sales totaling $4 billion in the 2023-2024 marketing year.

President Donald Trump announced another in a series of recent trade deals, this time with the Republic of South Korea. He says the deal amounts to an investment of $350 billion in U.S. goods, which includes agricultural products. South Korea will also purchase an additional $100 billion in liquefied natural gas and other energy products. The President says U.S. goods will be traded with South Korea at a zero-tariff rate, while South Korea will pay a 15 percent tariff on U.S. goods. “South Korea is one of our longest-established trading partners, so the Council is happy to see the administration show a commitment to building on those years of mutual respect and trade with the negotiation of this newest trade deal,” says U.S. Grains Council CEO Ryan LeGrand. “Korea was our fifth-largest trading partner in grains in all forms, with sales totaling $4 billion in the 2023-2024 marketing year.-NAFB

USGC reacts to trade deal with South Korea

The Energy Information Administration says U.S. ethanol output rose to its highest level in six weeks and inventories jumped in the seven days ending on July 25. Total production surged to an average of 1.1 million barrels a day, up from 1.0 million a week earlier. The agency said that’s the highest level since June 13. In the Midwest, which produces the most ethanol, output averaged just over a million barrels a day, up slightly from the week before. 

East Coast output jumped from 9,000 to 12,000 barrels a day, while Rocky Mountain production was up an average of 1,000 barrels a day to 11,000 during the week. Gulf Coast production was also up 1,000 barrels a day to an average of 25,000 barrels. West Coast output held steady compared to the prior week. Ethanol stockpiles on July 25 totaled 24.7 million barrels, reaching the highest level since the week ending April 18. 

The Energy Information Administration says U.S. ethanol output rose to its highest level in six weeks and inventories jumped in the seven days ending on July 25. Total production surged to an average of 1.1 million barrels a day, up from 1.0 million a week earlier. The agency said that’s the highest level since June 13. In the Midwest, which produces the most ethanol, output averaged just over a million barrels a day, up slightly from the week before. East Coast output jumped from 9,000 to 12,000 barrels a day, while Rocky Mountain production was up an average of 1,000 barrels a day to 11,000 during the week. Gulf Coast production was also up 1,000 barrels a day to an average of 25,000 barrels. West Coast output held steady compared to the prior week. Ethanol stockpiles on July 25 totaled 24.7 million barrels, reaching the highest level since the week ending April 18. -NAFB

Ethanol output hits six-week high

September corn closed up 2 1/4 cents and December corn was up 1 1/2 cents. September soybeans closed down 6 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 6 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed up 4 1/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was up 1/2 cents.

Row crops were mixed Thursday to close the month of July with short-side grain traders booking some profits in the corn and hard red wheat markets, while the soybean complex was under pressure with the exception of soymeal, with soybean oil taking the brunt of selling pressure for Thursday ahead of month end and pressuring the oilseed market as result. Outside markets were mixed across the board as well, with equities slightly higher but energies lower as traders are attempting to sort out the potential outcomes of Friday's deadline for the reciprocal tariff pause, as well as a looming Aug. 8 deadline President Trump has given Russia to end the war in Ukraine. In macro news for Thursday, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, came in hotter than expected for June with the core rate (excluding energy and food) pegged at 2.8% annually. This will certainly add an interesting layer to the rate discussion following Wednesday's Fed decision to hold the target rate steady for a fifth consecutive meeting. The CME FedWatch tool has pivoted now to penciling just one cut in 2025 and favoring the October FOMC meeting.

The live cattle complex has waved its white flag today as traders seem uncertain on what to do with the onset of a 50% tariff affecting beef and cattle imports from Brazil, which goes into effect in seven days. Cattlemen don't mind the fact that Brazilian beef and cattle could face a greater tariff, as truthfully, they want their own product to be marketed as opposed to the imported products. However, where the tricky part of this matter comes into play is in beef prices, and how consumers are going to react. We all know that President Trump uses tariffs as a way to get foreign leaders to the table to negotiate, but if for whatever reason the Brazilian government doesn't budge, domestic consumers could be affected as beef prices would likely trade higher because supplies of beef would become even more limited. Needless to say, it's a situation that we need to keep a very close eye on. If the U.S. beef cow-herd wasn't at a 62-year low, the story would be entirely different. Again, most cattle producers wouldn't mind the fact that foreign beef was taxed at a higher rate than in years past. There was a small (extremely small) volume of cattle traded in Kansas on Wednesday at $235, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, but no more sales have transpired today. Bids of $235 are currently being offered in Kansas again, but no more cattle have traded hands. Packer demand should improve at any point in time now. Asking prices are firm in the South at $236 plus and in the North at $390.

Because of the announcement that a 50% tariff could go into effect on beef and cattle imports from Brazil -- the feeder cattle complex &nbsp;traded sharply lower into the closing bell, thanks to the morning's announcement. This decision is solely being made because of technical uncertainty, not because it reflects what's going on in the countryside.

The cattle complex may have endured some pressure, but the lean hog contracts seemed to find some more technical footing in the contracts, which helped the market trade mostly higher. Unfortunately, it's not because of stronger pork demand or higher cash sales, but solely because of the added stability in the futures complex.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/31152428/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed up 2 1/4 cents and December corn was up 1 1/2 cents. September soybeans closed down 6 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 6 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed up 4 1/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was up 1/2 cents.Row crops were mixed Thursday to close the month of July with short-side grain traders booking some profits in the corn and hard red wheat markets, while the soybean complex was under pressure with the exception of soymeal, with soybean oil taking the brunt of selling pressure for Thursday ahead of month end and pressuring the oilseed market as result. Outside markets were mixed across the board as well, with equities slightly higher but energies lower as traders are attempting to sort out the potential outcomes of Friday's deadline for the reciprocal tariff pause, as well as a looming Aug. 8 deadline President Trump has given Russia to end the war in Ukraine. In macro news for Thursday, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, came in hotter than expected for June with the core rate (excluding energy and food) pegged at 2.8% annually. This will certainly add an interesting layer to the rate discussion following Wednesday's Fed decision to hold the target rate steady for a fifth consecutive meeting. The CME FedWatch tool has pivoted now to penciling just one cut in 2025 and favoring the October FOMC meeting.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex has waved its white flag today as traders seem uncertain on what to do with the onset of a 50% tariff affecting beef and cattle imports from Brazil, which goes into effect in seven days. Cattlemen don't mind the fact that Brazilian beef and cattle could face a greater tariff, as truthfully, they want their own product to be marketed as opposed to the imported products. However, where the tricky part of this matter comes into play is in beef prices, and how consumers are going to react. We all know that President Trump uses tariffs as a way to get foreign leaders to the table to negotiate, but if for whatever reason the Brazilian government doesn't budge, domestic consumers could be affected as beef prices would likely trade higher because supplies of beef would become even more limited. Needless to say, it's a situation that we need to keep a very close eye on. If the U.S. beef cow-herd wasn't at a 62-year low, the story would be entirely different. Again, most cattle producers wouldn't mind the fact that foreign beef was taxed at a higher rate than in years past. There was a small (extremely small) volume of cattle traded in Kansas on Wednesday at $235, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, but no more sales have transpired today. Bids of $235 are currently being offered in Kansas again, but no more cattle have traded hands. Packer demand should improve at any point in time now. Asking prices are firm in the South at $236 plus and in the North at $390.Because of the announcement that a 50% tariff could go into effect on beef and cattle imports from Brazil -- the feeder cattle complex &nbsp;traded sharply lower into the closing bell, thanks to the morning's announcement. This decision is solely being made because of technical uncertainty, not because it reflects what's going on in the countryside. The cattle complex may have endured some pressure, but the lean hog contracts seemed to find some more technical footing in the contracts, which helped the market trade mostly higher. Unfortunately, it's not because of stronger pork demand or higher cash sales, but solely because of the added stability in the futures complex. <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/31152428/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

Union Pacific will buy smaller rival Norfolk Southern in a deal worth $85 billion. U.P. says this would create the first coast-to-coast freight rail operator in the U.S. Reports say, if approved, the deal would be the largest buyout in the sector’s history. It would combine Union Pacific’s tracks in the western two-thirds of the U.S. with Norfolk’s more than 19,000-mile network covering 22 eastern states. The two railroads would have a combined enterprise value of $250 billion and would unlock annualized synergies of about $3 billion. 

The deal will likely face lengthy regulatory scrutiny amid union concerns over potential rate increases, service disruptions, and job losses. The National Grain and Feed Association says it will undertake an extensive evaluation of the proposed merger to “better understand” the implications for the industry. Mike Steenhoek of the Soy Transportation Coalition says the deal will create winners and losers in the  shipping industry.

Union Pacific will buy smaller rival Norfolk Southern in a deal worth $85 billion. U.P. says this would create the first coast-to-coast freight rail operator in the U.S. Reports say, if approved, the deal would be the largest buyout in the sector’s history. It would combine Union Pacific’s tracks in the western two-thirds of the U.S. with Norfolk’s more than 19,000-mile network covering 22 eastern states. The two railroads would have a combined enterprise value of $250 billion and would unlock annualized synergies of about $3 billion. The deal will likely face lengthy regulatory scrutiny amid union concerns over potential rate increases, service disruptions, and job losses. The National Grain and Feed Association says it will undertake an extensive evaluation of the proposed merger to “better understand” the implications for the industry. Mike Steenhoek of the Soy Transportation Coalition says the deal will create winners and losers in the shipping industry.-NAFB

Railroads to merge for $85 Billion

By:&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/noahgrabianski/">Noah Grabianski</a>

Cattle farms and feedlots in Missouri today are populated by cows that are a far cry from those that roamed pastures 80 or 90 years ago.

Cattle back then were referred to as “buckle cows” – named that way because they only went about as high as a rancher’s belt buckle. But in the 1950s, when cattle herd numbers were low, cattlemen began putting more emphasis on cows’ “frame size,” or their height.

In the past few decades, with improvements in genetic technology, farmers have been able to measure extremely specific qualities in their cattle. This has led to a shift from increasing the frame size of cattle to increasing the “performance,” or weight, of cattle. That means cattle aren’t getting taller, but heavier.

The U.S. cattle inventory&nbsp;<a href="https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/h702q636h/6108x003v/kk91h696g/catl0124.pdf" target="_blank">hit its lowest level in 73 years</a>&nbsp;in 2024,&nbsp;largely as a result of recent droughts. The solution isn’t as simple as just breeding more cows, because cattle producers have to balance the amount of cattle they hold back to reproduce, and the amount they sell off to feedyards to generate revenue.

Don Close, a senior animal protein analyst at agriculture publication Terrain Ag, said the industry has been shifting breeding practices to mitigate the recent cattle shortage.

“Being the lowest we’ve been since 1951, the industry has elected to make cattle bigger, to compensate in pounds what we’re losing in head count,” Close said.

Close estimated that the average live weight of U.S. cattle increases by about eight pounds a year. The carcass weight, or how much cattle weigh once the hide, bone and other inedible parts are removed, increases by about five pounds a year.

But there has been a particularly noticeable spike in the past decade or so, caused by incentives from meatpacking plants.

This trend can be seen through what’s known as the hot carcass weight discount, which is the payout reduction cattle producers receive when carcasses exceed a meatpacking plant’s maximum weight. As a result, producers try to get their cattle as close to that weight limit as possible without exceeding it.

Jamie Courter, the state beef genetics specialist at University of Missouri Extension, said that when she first started in the industry about 10 years ago, that weight limit was 1,000 pounds. It’s been creeping up ever since. The limit went up to 1,050 pounds, then 1,100, and now some plants have improved their technology enough to accept 1,200-pound carcasses.

“We keep pushing what we’re willing to accept, as far as size of feedyard steers, higher and higher,” Courter said. “The packers are incentivizing the feedyards and the commercial cattlemen to do so, and — right, wrong or indifferent — commercial cattlemen are going to chase that incentive because that impacts their bottom line.”

Higher cattle weights also have an effect on consumers down the line. Certain beef cuts, namely ribeye and loin, are getting too big to be easily packaged. Because the cows are bigger, these cuts are larger, meaning they have to be cut thinner and with more surface area than they used to be to maintain a consistent weight.

But Close said these high cattle weights are, in large part, a good thing for beef consumers.

“If we were to limit weights on the cattle, it would limit the total of beef production, limiting supply, that would drive price higher,” Close said. “So in a backwards kind of way, yes, it’s actually supporting … consumers, because it keeps more product available to the counter.”

Beef is getting more expensive, with the average price of ground beef hitting a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nationalbeefwire.com/beef-prices-soar-to-record-highs-in-june" target="_blank">record high of $6.12 per pound</a>&nbsp;in June. However, bigger cows also means better quality. Bigger size leads to higher fat content and better marbling. Close estimated that 82% to 84% of all beef is of choice or prime grade, which lines up with consumer tastes.

However, researchers and cattle producers have said the current trajectory of beef performance isn’t sustainable. Courter said it’s important to consider the economic factors of farming cattle when trying to breed for size.

“We can’t have 2,000-pound mature-weight cows, because those cows eat more, which means you need more acres to raise that cow in a year,” Courter said. “Which means, if you don’t buy more land, you have to decrease the number of cows you have, or you have to increase how much hay or corn or whatever you’re buying to sustain that 2,000-pound cow.”

Doug Frank, co-owner of the Frank/Hazelrigg Cattle Co., said that cattle performance is reaching a threshold. In recent years, this has led farmers to start analyzing other significant traits.

“Maintenance costs are going up, and maybe we’re past the point of the most efficiency there,” Frank said. “We’re probably at the limit of what our commercial customers have for resources, and we’re a lot more interested in other traits.”

Where farmers used to look towards breeding for weight, some are now beginning to place importance in feeding efficiency. Farmers are tracking relative feed intake, which measures how much weight a cow gains from a certain amount of feed. Those that need less food to gain weight are more profitable for farmers.

Cattle performance may be starting to even out, but Frank highlighted the industry’s ability to continue delivering product, even during a downturn in inventory.

“Beef is not cheap today, but … we’ve increased production pretty substantially in the U.S. beef industry,” Frank said, “and we’ve done it with the lowest cow numbers that we’ve had in (decades).”

This story originally appeared in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.missouribusinessalert.com/" target="_blank">Missouri&nbsp;Business&nbsp;Alert</a>, a digital newsroom covering&nbsp;businessand the economy in&nbsp;Missouri.

<figure>
 <img src="https://media.eaglewebservices.com/public/2025/7/1753957064006.png" alt=" Cows are pictured at the University of Missouri South Farm. Cattle weight may be approaching a tipping point, experts say (Noah Grabianski/Missouri Business Alert)" />
 <figcaption> Cows are pictured at the University of Missouri South Farm. Cattle weight may be approaching a tipping point, experts say (Noah Grabianski/Missouri Business Alert)</figcaption>
 </figure>By:&nbsp;<a href="https://missouriindependent.com/author/noahgrabianski/">Noah Grabianski</a>Cattle farms and feedlots in Missouri today are populated by cows that are a far cry from those that roamed pastures 80 or 90 years ago.Cattle back then were referred to as “buckle cows” – named that way because they only went about as high as a rancher’s belt buckle. But in the 1950s, when cattle herd numbers were low, cattlemen began putting more emphasis on cows’ “frame size,” or their height.In the past few decades, with improvements in genetic technology, farmers have been able to measure extremely specific qualities in their cattle. This has led to a shift from increasing the frame size of cattle to increasing the “performance,” or weight, of cattle. That means cattle aren’t getting taller, but heavier.The U.S. cattle inventory&nbsp;<a href="https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/h702q636h/6108x003v/kk91h696g/catl0124.pdf" target="_blank">hit its lowest level in 73 years</a>&nbsp;in 2024,&nbsp;largely as a result of recent droughts. The solution isn’t as simple as just breeding more cows, because cattle producers have to balance the amount of cattle they hold back to reproduce, and the amount they sell off to feedyards to generate revenue.Don Close, a senior animal protein analyst at agriculture publication Terrain Ag, said the industry has been shifting breeding practices to mitigate the recent cattle shortage.“Being the lowest we’ve been since 1951, the industry has elected to make cattle bigger, to compensate in pounds what we’re losing in head count,” Close said.Close estimated that the average live weight of U.S. cattle increases by about eight pounds a year. The carcass weight, or how much cattle weigh once the hide, bone and other inedible parts are removed, increases by about five pounds a year.But there has been a particularly noticeable spike in the past decade or so, caused by incentives from meatpacking plants.This trend can be seen through what’s known as the hot carcass weight discount, which is the payout reduction cattle producers receive when carcasses exceed a meatpacking plant’s maximum weight. As a result, producers try to get their cattle as close to that weight limit as possible without exceeding it.Jamie Courter, the state beef genetics specialist at University of Missouri Extension, said that when she first started in the industry about 10 years ago, that weight limit was 1,000 pounds. It’s been creeping up ever since. The limit went up to 1,050 pounds, then 1,100, and now some plants have improved their technology enough to accept 1,200-pound carcasses.“We keep pushing what we’re willing to accept, as far as size of feedyard steers, higher and higher,” Courter said. “The packers are incentivizing the feedyards and the commercial cattlemen to do so, and — right, wrong or indifferent — commercial cattlemen are going to chase that incentive because that impacts their bottom line.”Higher cattle weights also have an effect on consumers down the line. Certain beef cuts, namely ribeye and loin, are getting too big to be easily packaged. Because the cows are bigger, these cuts are larger, meaning they have to be cut thinner and with more surface area than they used to be to maintain a consistent weight.But Close said these high cattle weights are, in large part, a good thing for beef consumers.“If we were to limit weights on the cattle, it would limit the total of beef production, limiting supply, that would drive price higher,” Close said. “So in a backwards kind of way, yes, it’s actually supporting … consumers, because it keeps more product available to the counter.”Beef is getting more expensive, with the average price of ground beef hitting a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nationalbeefwire.com/beef-prices-soar-to-record-highs-in-june" target="_blank">record high of $6.12 per pound</a>&nbsp;in June. However, bigger cows also means better quality. Bigger size leads to higher fat content and better marbling. Close estimated that 82% to 84% of all beef is of choice or prime grade, which lines up with consumer tastes.However, researchers and cattle producers have said the current trajectory of beef performance isn’t sustainable. Courter said it’s important to consider the economic factors of farming cattle when trying to breed for size.“We can’t have 2,000-pound mature-weight cows, because those cows eat more, which means you need more acres to raise that cow in a year,” Courter said. “Which means, if you don’t buy more land, you have to decrease the number of cows you have, or you have to increase how much hay or corn or whatever you’re buying to sustain that 2,000-pound cow.”Doug Frank, co-owner of the Frank/Hazelrigg Cattle Co., said that cattle performance is reaching a threshold. In recent years, this has led farmers to start analyzing other significant traits.“Maintenance costs are going up, and maybe we’re past the point of the most efficiency there,” Frank said. “We’re probably at the limit of what our commercial customers have for resources, and we’re a lot more interested in other traits.”Where farmers used to look towards breeding for weight, some are now beginning to place importance in feeding efficiency. Farmers are tracking relative feed intake, which measures how much weight a cow gains from a certain amount of feed. Those that need less food to gain weight are more profitable for farmers.Cattle performance may be starting to even out, but Frank highlighted the industry’s ability to continue delivering product, even during a downturn in inventory.“Beef is not cheap today, but … we’ve increased production pretty substantially in the U.S. beef industry,” Frank said, “and we’ve done it with the lowest cow numbers that we’ve had in (decades).”This story originally appeared in&nbsp;<a href="https://www.missouribusinessalert.com/" target="_blank">Missouri&nbsp;Business&nbsp;Alert</a>, a digital newsroom covering&nbsp;businessand the economy in&nbsp;Missouri.

Thinning herd, heavier cattle reshape Missouri’s beef supply chain

Listen to the markets by clicking <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/30143526/30001-markets-230pm.wav">HERE</a>.

September corn closed up 2 1/2 cents and December corn was up 1 1/4 cents. September soybeans closed down 13 3/4 cents and November soybeans were down 13 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 3 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 6 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 1/4 cents.

The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.47 at 99.36. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 26.0 points at 44,842.0. August gold is down $30.60 at $3,293.40, September silver is down $0.72 at $37.57 and September copper is down $1.0085. September crude oil is up $0.80 at $70.01, September ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0383, September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0257 and September natural gas is down $0.098.

September corn futures closed up 2 1/2 cents on Wednesday to $3.91 3/4. December futures were up 1 1/4 cents to $4.12 1/4. The corn market enjoyed a day of modest short-covering ahead of month end, with no significantly bullish news spurring on buyers, with the approach to contract lows likely triggering some buy orders along the way.

In Wednesday morning's Petroleum Status report, the EIA pegged ethanol production in the U.S. for last week at 1.096 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 18,000 bpd from the previous week, but slightly lower than the same week in 2024. As of Wednesday's report, five weeks and change remain in the corn marketing year. In South American news, Brazil's second corn crop is about two-thirds harvested, while Argentina's harvest was 86% complete as of last week, according to the International Grains Council. U.S. corn export offers remain very competitive on the world stage.

In corn technicals, December futures found buying support Wednesday after trading to within 2 cents of the contract low Tuesday. For now, the unchanged fundamental outlook, featuring many private estimates for a 2025 corn yield well above trend, leaves technical support as really the only incentive for buyers in the marketplace. The bullish target in the near to medium term is the 20-day moving average near $4.20. A break in December futures below support near $4.10 would set $4.00 as the immediate bearish target.

The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.74. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 15 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $3.76.

September soybeans dropped another 13 3/4 cents to $9.75 3/4 on Wednesday, while November futures were also under heavy pressure, falling 13 3/4 cents to $9.95 3/4. November soybeans fell for the seventh time in the past eight sessions, a route which has added up to over 35 cents of lost value on the contract. It sounds like a broken record, but for now traders are struggling to look beyond the weather with the 15-day outlook now taking us to mid-August with few perceived issues for soybean pod filling. However, storms are always a threat this time of year and will need to be monitored as events arise.

A disappointing feature of the soybean selloff through the last month has been the breakaway from soybean oil in price action. Soybean oil futures continue to grind to the highest prices seen since 2023, but the bullish influence over the whole soybean market has drastically faded over the past month as traders for now don't see the large increase in soybean crush potential through 2025-26 as being enough to offset potentially record yields and shaky export demand if China remains absent.

In soybean technicals, it's safe to say November soybeans posted their most bearish close in months on Wednesday, closing below $10.00 for the first time since April 9, which came immediately following the April 2 reciprocal tariff announcement. If the market can't gain a footing back above $10.00 support, the early April low in the mid $9.70s seems to be the likely bearish target. It will be important to see if soybeans can find any bargain buyers again at this level as was the case in mid-July.

The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.54. Wednesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 56 cents under the November board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $9.40.

September Kansas City futures rose 3 1/2 cents on Wednesday to $5.22. Meanwhile, Chicago and Minneapolis futures were lower, with the latter trading to a sixth consecutive lower session and 12 lower out of the past 14.

In their weekly report, the International Grains Council reported Russian wheat harvest at 37% complete, with production thus far roughly 22% lower than in 2024, although yields are expected to improve as harvest moves northward. Meanwhile, a strong recovery in EU crops continues to weigh on world prices, with futures traders seeing little need to price any supply risks into markets.

In wheat technicals, September KC futures again came within a penny of contract lows early Wednesday but mounted a reversal to reclaim support at $5.20 which has been impressive in holding hard red prices through July. The bullish objective is the 20-day moving average at $5.26 1/2 which has been equally stubborn in keeping prices down since mid-June. $5.00 remains the ultimate bearish target on a sustained break below aforementioned $5.20 support.

By MATT PIKEListen to the markets by clicking <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/30143526/30001-markets-230pm.wav">HERE</a>.GENERAL COMMENTS:September corn closed up 2 1/2 cents and December corn was up 1 1/4 cents. September soybeans closed down 13 3/4 cents and November soybeans were down 13 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 3 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 6 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 1/4 cents.The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.47 at 99.36. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 26.0 points at 44,842.0. August gold is down $30.60 at $3,293.40, September silver is down $0.72 at $37.57 and September copper is down $1.0085. September crude oil is up $0.80 at $70.01, September ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0383, September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0257 and September natural gas is down $0.098.CORN:September corn futures closed up 2 1/2 cents on Wednesday to $3.91 3/4. December futures were up 1 1/4 cents to $4.12 1/4. The corn market enjoyed a day of modest short-covering ahead of month end, with no significantly bullish news spurring on buyers, with the approach to contract lows likely triggering some buy orders along the way.In Wednesday morning's Petroleum Status report, the EIA pegged ethanol production in the U.S. for last week at 1.096 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 18,000 bpd from the previous week, but slightly lower than the same week in 2024. As of Wednesday's report, five weeks and change remain in the corn marketing year. In South American news, Brazil's second corn crop is about two-thirds harvested, while Argentina's harvest was 86% complete as of last week, according to the International Grains Council. U.S. corn export offers remain very competitive on the world stage.In corn technicals, December futures found buying support Wednesday after trading to within 2 cents of the contract low Tuesday. For now, the unchanged fundamental outlook, featuring many private estimates for a 2025 corn yield well above trend, leaves technical support as really the only incentive for buyers in the marketplace. The bullish target in the near to medium term is the 20-day moving average near $4.20. A break in December futures below support near $4.10 would set $4.00 as the immediate bearish target.The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.74. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 15 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $3.76.SOYBEANS:September soybeans dropped another 13 3/4 cents to $9.75 3/4 on Wednesday, while November futures were also under heavy pressure, falling 13 3/4 cents to $9.95 3/4. November soybeans fell for the seventh time in the past eight sessions, a route which has added up to over 35 cents of lost value on the contract. It sounds like a broken record, but for now traders are struggling to look beyond the weather with the 15-day outlook now taking us to mid-August with few perceived issues for soybean pod filling. However, storms are always a threat this time of year and will need to be monitored as events arise.A disappointing feature of the soybean selloff through the last month has been the breakaway from soybean oil in price action. Soybean oil futures continue to grind to the highest prices seen since 2023, but the bullish influence over the whole soybean market has drastically faded over the past month as traders for now don't see the large increase in soybean crush potential through 2025-26 as being enough to offset potentially record yields and shaky export demand if China remains absent.In soybean technicals, it's safe to say November soybeans posted their most bearish close in months on Wednesday, closing below $10.00 for the first time since April 9, which came immediately following the April 2 reciprocal tariff announcement. If the market can't gain a footing back above $10.00 support, the early April low in the mid $9.70s seems to be the likely bearish target. It will be important to see if soybeans can find any bargain buyers again at this level as was the case in mid-July.The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.54. Wednesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 56 cents under the November board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $9.40.WHEAT:September Kansas City futures rose 3 1/2 cents on Wednesday to $5.22. Meanwhile, Chicago and Minneapolis futures were lower, with the latter trading to a sixth consecutive lower session and 12 lower out of the past 14.In their weekly report, the International Grains Council reported Russian wheat harvest at 37% complete, with production thus far roughly 22% lower than in 2024, although yields are expected to improve as harvest moves northward. Meanwhile, a strong recovery in EU crops continues to weigh on world prices, with futures traders seeing little need to price any supply risks into markets.In wheat technicals, September KC futures again came within a penny of contract lows early Wednesday but mounted a reversal to reclaim support at $5.20 which has been impressive in holding hard red prices through July. The bullish objective is the 20-day moving average at $5.26 1/2 which has been equally stubborn in keeping prices down since mid-June. $5.00 remains the ultimate bearish target on a sustained break below aforementioned $5.20 support.

A series of new trade deals between the United States and countries around the world could directly benefit America’s farmers and ranchers. Groups like the American Farm Bureau support the agreements, noting that strong and enduring agreements help connect U.S. farmers and ranchers with global markets. The U.S. Grains Council also applauded the trade deals, including the one between the U.S. and the EU.  

USGC President and CEO Ryan LeGrand said, “This deal promises to build upon long-established trade with our eighth-largest grains-in-all-forms trading partner, worth more than $1 billion in the 2023-2024 marketing year and our fourth-largest ethanol trading partner.”  The Renewable Fuels Association said the deal comes at a good time as corn growers prepare for what is looking like a record harvest. RFA President Geoff Cooper said, “We stand ready to produce larger volumes of cleaner-burning ethanol and valuable co-products for our customers around the world.”

A series of new trade deals between the United States and countries around the world could directly benefit America’s farmers and ranchers. Groups like the American Farm Bureau support the agreements, noting that strong and enduring agreements help connect U.S. farmers and ranchers with global markets. The U.S. Grains Council also applauded the trade deals, including the one between the U.S. and the EU. USGC President and CEO Ryan LeGrand said, “This deal promises to build upon long-established trade with our eighth-largest grains-in-all-forms trading partner, worth more than $1 billion in the 2023-2024 marketing year and our fourth-largest ethanol trading partner.” The Renewable Fuels Association said the deal comes at a good time as corn growers prepare for what is looking like a record harvest. RFA President Geoff Cooper said, “We stand ready to produce larger volumes of cleaner-burning ethanol and valuable co-products for our customers around the world.”-NAFB

Ag groups support new trade deals

For the first time since July and August of 2023, the Rural Mainstreet Index, a survey of bankers in areas that rely on agriculture, registered two consecutive months of above growth-neutral readings. It’s the highest level for the RMI since July 2023. Bankers reported very low farm loan delinquency rates over the past six months. Unfortunately, one in four farmers is expected to experience negative income in 2025. 

For the 13th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral. Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 22nd straight month. Regional exports of agricultural goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period last year, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025, for a decline of 18.5 percent. Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for more than 55 percent of total exports.  

For the first time since July and August of 2023, the Rural Mainstreet Index, a survey of bankers in areas that rely on agriculture, registered two consecutive months of above growth-neutral readings. It’s the highest level for the RMI since July 2023. Bankers reported very low farm loan delinquency rates over the past six months. Unfortunately, one in four farmers is expected to experience negative income in 2025. For the 13th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral. Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 22nd straight month. Regional exports of agricultural goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same period last year, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025, for a decline of 18.5 percent. Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for more than 55 percent of total exports. -NAFB

Rural Mainstreet Index expands in July

September corn closed down 4 1/2 cents and December corn was down 3 cents. August soybeans closed down 7 cents and November soybeans were down 2 cents. September KC wheat closed down 7 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 8 3/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 4 cents.

Prices slipped further Tuesday into 2025 lows and in some instances contract lows as another round of mixed crop ratings from USDA on Monday gave bearish traders little incentive to change their current market bias. Market news for Tuesday was slim, but it was reported in the early afternoon that U.S. and Chinese officials had agreed in principle to extend the trade truce which had been set to expire on Aug. 12, with later reports indicating that President Trump would give final approval on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Tuesday that Friday's tariff deadline for other countries is a firm cutoff before reciprocal tariffs go back into place. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has surged through the first two days of the week to its highest level in over a month on the weekend trade deal with the European Union. Lastly, investors and traders alike will tune in Wednesday for the conclusion of the July FOMC meeting in which the Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates despite growing tension between the Trump Administration and Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Although traders were cautious at the day's initial start, the live cattle complex got back to trading higher after shaking the morning's initial jitters. Today's slight uptick, although it still is less than a dollar's advancement, is enough of a push to lead many of the nearby contracts to new contract highs yet again. No business has developed yet in the fed cash cattle market, and it isn't expected to any time soon, as feedlot managers and packers are likely to go round again this week as both parties want starkly different outcomes for the market. Asking prices are noted in the South at $235 plus, but are still not established yet in the North.

Per the norm here lately, the feeder cattle complex was again rocking and rolling into the day's closing bell as the sky truly remains the limit for the feeder cattle complex right now. Like the live cattle complex, today's advance scores new all-time highs in most of the nearby contracts once again. And regarding demand in the countryside, buyers remain so active in the market that Monday's CME feeder cattle index closed at $329.93.

With cash prices and pork cutouts values lower, it doesn't surprise many that the lean hog complex traded lower. The weakness in the market's fundamentals, mixed with the continued pressure being seen in the futures complex, has gravely affected the complex today as the contracts were all trading $1.00 to $2.00 lower.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/29154319/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed down 4 1/2 cents and December corn was down 3 cents. August soybeans closed down 7 cents and November soybeans were down 2 cents. September KC wheat closed down 7 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 8 3/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 4 cents.Prices slipped further Tuesday into 2025 lows and in some instances contract lows as another round of mixed crop ratings from USDA on Monday gave bearish traders little incentive to change their current market bias. Market news for Tuesday was slim, but it was reported in the early afternoon that U.S. and Chinese officials had agreed in principle to extend the trade truce which had been set to expire on Aug. 12, with later reports indicating that President Trump would give final approval on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Tuesday that Friday's tariff deadline for other countries is a firm cutoff before reciprocal tariffs go back into place. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has surged through the first two days of the week to its highest level in over a month on the weekend trade deal with the European Union. Lastly, investors and traders alike will tune in Wednesday for the conclusion of the July FOMC meeting in which the Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates despite growing tension between the Trump Administration and Fed Chair Jerome Powell.LIVESTOCK:Although traders were cautious at the day's initial start, the live cattle complex got back to trading higher after shaking the morning's initial jitters. Today's slight uptick, although it still is less than a dollar's advancement, is enough of a push to lead many of the nearby contracts to new contract highs yet again. No business has developed yet in the fed cash cattle market, and it isn't expected to any time soon, as feedlot managers and packers are likely to go round again this week as both parties want starkly different outcomes for the market. Asking prices are noted in the South at $235 plus, but are still not established yet in the North.Per the norm here lately, the feeder cattle complex was again rocking and rolling into the day's closing bell as the sky truly remains the limit for the feeder cattle complex right now. Like the live cattle complex, today's advance scores new all-time highs in most of the nearby contracts once again. And regarding demand in the countryside, buyers remain so active in the market that Monday's CME feeder cattle index closed at $329.93.With cash prices and pork cutouts values lower, it doesn't surprise many that the lean hog complex traded lower. The weakness in the market's fundamentals, mixed with the continued pressure being seen in the futures complex, has gravely affected the complex today as the contracts were all trading $1.00 to $2.00 lower.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/29154319/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The July Cattle on Feed Report offered little relief to customers paying higher prices for beef. That’s despite the cycle of herd liquidation that seems to be slowly ending. There were 94.2 million cattle and calves in the U.S. as of July 1, the lowest mid-year number of cattle since 1973. The USDA also said the number of animals placed in feedlots for weight gain before being sent to packers plunged to its lowest level since 2017. 

Reports show a severe shortage in the world’s largest beef-producing country has sent cattle costs soaring, wiping out billions in profits for packers and driving record-high beef prices in U.S. grocery stores. Dr. Derrell Peel at Oklahoma State University says the latest USDA numbers offer little indication of herd rebuilding or, at least, it’s not very aggressive so far. “The number of heifers in feedlots remained mostly stable.” 

The July Cattle on Feed Report offered little relief to customers paying higher prices for beef. That’s despite the cycle of herd liquidation that seems to be slowly ending. There were 94.2 million cattle and calves in the U.S. as of July 1, the lowest mid-year number of cattle since 1973. The USDA also said the number of animals placed in feedlots for weight gain before being sent to packers plunged to its lowest level since 2017. Reports show a severe shortage in the world’s largest beef-producing country has sent cattle costs soaring, wiping out billions in profits for packers and driving record-high beef prices in U.S. grocery stores. Dr. Derrell Peel at Oklahoma State University says the latest USDA numbers offer little indication of herd rebuilding or, at least, it’s not very aggressive so far. “The number of heifers in feedlots remained mostly stable.” -NAFB

Smallest U.S. cattle herd since 1973

Numerous stakeholders, like farmers, Extension Services, researchers, and policymakers, all rely on the data that USDA has collected for more than 150 years. The data is collected through agencies and programs like the National Agricultural Statistics Service and the Economic Research Service. Decreasing responses to USDA’s farmer surveys are beginning to put the integrity of the data at risk. One of the biggest challenges to getting a good survey response is timing. Unfortunately, many survey collection periods overlap with farmers’ busiest times.

For example, leading up to the June 30 Planted Acreage Report, NASS contacted almost 92,000 farmers during a time that overlaps with the end of planting and spraying seasons for many row crop farmers. A Farm Bureau Market Intel page says USDA should look to examine ways to increase participation and reliability without imposing more burdens on the already too busy growers whom the data is designed to serve. 

Numerous stakeholders, like farmers, Extension Services, researchers, and policymakers, all rely on the data that USDA has collected for more than 150 years. The data is collected through agencies and programs like the National Agricultural Statistics Service and the Economic Research Service. Decreasing responses to USDA’s farmer surveys are beginning to put the integrity of the data at risk. One of the biggest challenges to getting a good survey response is timing. Unfortunately, many survey collection periods overlap with farmers’ busiest times.For example, leading up to the June 30 Planted Acreage Report, NASS contacted almost 92,000 farmers during a time that overlaps with the end of planting and spraying seasons for many row crop farmers. A Farm Bureau Market Intel page says USDA should look to examine ways to increase participation and reliability without imposing more burdens on the already too busy growers whom the data is designed to serve. -NAFB

Falling farmer responses to surveys are a growing problem

September corn closed down 5 3/4 cents and December corn was down 5 cents. August soybeans closed down 10 cents and November soybeans were down 9 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed down 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 1/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 3 1/4 cents.

Row-crop markets kept with the common theme for Monday sessions through the growing season thus far with another sharp move lower as traders expect another solid round of crop ratings from USDA later Monday afternoon and are seeing no reason currently to not expect record-setting yields this fall given the weather through the growing season thus far. Outside markets were mostly of positive influence for Monday, although weather-focused ag traders appeared to pay little mind. Equities were higher on the trade deal announcement over the weekend between the U.S. and European Union. Meanwhile, energy markets were mostly higher after President Trump announced he would tighten the window for a ceasefire in the Russia/Ukraine war before Russia would face possible heightened sanctions from the U.S.

Following the slew of positive developments late last week, the live cattle complex hasn't shied away from trading higher as the market has seen a plethora of fundamental support gush into the marketplace. Whether that be last week's bullish Cattle on Feed report, or the noting on the mid-year Cattle Inventory report that no signs of herd build back have started yet, or the steady to $2.00 higher in the fed cash cattle market, or the unseasonal uptick in boxed beef prices. There are almost too many bullish factors currently playing in the marketplace to keep trade off.

After fully evaluating the market's triumphant success last week, it's almost as if traders noted the positive developments and merely said, "say less," as they shot the feeder cattle contracts higher. Once again today, the market's higher push in the futures complex scored another new contract high for many of the nearby contracts.

Following last week's choppy trade, the lean hog complex again skittered sideways into Monday's closing bell. It will be imperative that demand remains strong this week if traders are going to be successfully able to advance the contracts. Packers could be slightly less aggressive in this week's cash market as they bought a sizeable volume last week.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/28145010/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed down 5 3/4 cents and December corn was down 5 cents. August soybeans closed down 10 cents and November soybeans were down 9 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed down 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 1/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 3 1/4 cents.Row-crop markets kept with the common theme for Monday sessions through the growing season thus far with another sharp move lower as traders expect another solid round of crop ratings from USDA later Monday afternoon and are seeing no reason currently to not expect record-setting yields this fall given the weather through the growing season thus far. Outside markets were mostly of positive influence for Monday, although weather-focused ag traders appeared to pay little mind. Equities were higher on the trade deal announcement over the weekend between the U.S. and European Union. Meanwhile, energy markets were mostly higher after President Trump announced he would tighten the window for a ceasefire in the Russia/Ukraine war before Russia would face possible heightened sanctions from the U.S.LIVESTOCK:Following the slew of positive developments late last week, the live cattle complex hasn't shied away from trading higher as the market has seen a plethora of fundamental support gush into the marketplace. Whether that be last week's bullish Cattle on Feed report, or the noting on the mid-year Cattle Inventory report that no signs of herd build back have started yet, or the steady to $2.00 higher in the fed cash cattle market, or the unseasonal uptick in boxed beef prices. There are almost too many bullish factors currently playing in the marketplace to keep trade off. After fully evaluating the market's triumphant success last week, it's almost as if traders noted the positive developments and merely said, "say less," as they shot the feeder cattle contracts higher. Once again today, the market's higher push in the futures complex scored another new contract high for many of the nearby contracts.Following last week's choppy trade, the lean hog complex again skittered sideways into Monday's closing bell. It will be imperative that demand remains strong this week if traders are going to be successfully able to advance the contracts. Packers could be slightly less aggressive in this week's cash market as they bought a sizeable volume last week.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/28145010/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>