GRAINS:
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September corn closed up 4 cents and December corn was up 4 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed up 18 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 18 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 1 cent, September Chicago wheat was up 3 1/4 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 1 3/4 cents.
The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.31 at 98.31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 124.0 points at 44,371.0. August gold is up $24.60 at $3,361.30, September silver is up $0.03 at $38.14 and September copper is down $0.0635. August crude oil is down $0.19 at $66.33, August ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0133, August RBOB gasoline is down $0.0279 and August natural gas is up $0.016.
CORN:
September corn futures closed up 4 cents Wednesday at $4.05 1/4. December futures were up 4 1/4 cents at $4.24. Corn futures were able to add another positive session to remain perfect for the week thus far. Pollination window speculation is at full swing this week with murmurings of issues in areas in the Eastern Corn Belt likely playing a role in motivating short-covering among traders. Otherwise, heading into this crucial period there are some areas that will be needing the forecasted rainfall through the balance of July very badly and it will be important to monitor potential hits and misses through the month. Weather updates are due on Thursday both from the National Drought Monitor as well as NOAA's seasonal outlook which will shed more light on the situation heading into the latter half of the summer.
Wednesday's Petroleum Status report from the Energy Information Administration showed weekly ethanol production averaged 1.087 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, just above the prior week's 1.085 million bpd average, and within trade expectations. This total was below the same period last year by less than 2% but 3% higher than the previous 4-year average for the second week of July. Total ethanol production for the corn marketing year thus far slipped just slightly to 3.5% ahead of the 2023-24 season.
In corn technicals, December futures were able to reclaim former support above $4.20 at least for Wednesday but ran into resistance at the 20-day moving average near $4.25 3/4, the daily high for December corn. This is the immediate bullish target for a continuation of the rally. Support to watch will first be at $4.20 and then at $4.15.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.89. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 13 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $3.93.
SOYBEANS:
August soybeans were up 18 1/2 cents at $10.13 1/2, while November soybeans closed up 18 3/4 cents at $10.20 1/2 on Wednesday. The soybean market jolted awake at midweek following a series of holds above the $10.00 mark for the November contract. USDA also announced a 4.4 million bushel (mb) new-crop soybean flash sale to unknown destinations which has led to speculation that the sale may in fact be to China. Time will tell on that; but either way the soybean export program is entering an important stretch of weeks for building the book of sales for the 2025-26 season.
In other bullish news for soybeans, NOPA crush for June set a record for that month at 185.7 mb, despite being just under 4% lower than May's volume due to an expected seasonal dip. The average NOPA member share of total U.S. crush of 94% would imply total June crush of near 197 mb. Overall, the 2024-25 crush program is well on pace to hit the USDA goal of 2.420 bb for the soybean marketing year. Meanwhile, NOPA also reported soybean oil stocks at 1.366 billion pounds, the lowest for June since 2024 as reported by Reuters on Tuesday. Soybean oil futures are up against resistance near 55 cents per pound, a close above which would put the 2025 high of 55.98 as the bullish goal.
In soybean technicals, November futures were able to reclaim a close above former support near $10.15, which will be important to monitor for support on a potential retest through the balance of the trading week. A successful footing here sets up the major moving averages in the $10.27-$10.34 range as a bullish target. It is also worth noting the chart gap which remains unfilled from $10.39 1/2 to $10.44 1/4.
The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.51. Tuesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 44 cents under the August board would indicate the index on Tuesday afternoon to be near $9.70.
WHEAT:
September Kansas City futures fell 1 cent Wednesday to $4.22 3/4. September Chicago futures were up 3 1/4 cents, while MIAX Minneapolis spring wheat futures also struggled to gain momentum, falling 1 3/4 cents. Overall, it was a frustrating session for the wheat market as prices were ultimately unable to really ever get going in the face of harvest pressure as well as decent rainfall chances for needy spring wheat areas in the northern reaches of the U.S. Plains.
In world wheat news, Paris milling futures are also struggling to find momentum, translated to roughly $6.30 per bushel currently and stuck in a 2-month range between $6.20 and $6.50, as well as lower in three out of the past four sessions. The French Ministry of Agriculture estimated 2025 soft wheat production at 32.6 million metric tons (mmt), up considerably from a generally poor 2024 crop. In their weekly update, the International Grains Council (IGC) reported generally weaker world FOB export values, with Russian offers remaining near the lowest offer but IGC noting the slow pace to harvest has kept trading activity at a minimum.
In wheat technicals, September Kansas City futures have settled into a very narrow trading range this week, with closes of down 1 1/4 cents, up 1 3/4 cents, and down 1 cent through Wednesday, with intraday moves in either direction lacking conviction. Support near $5.20 is likely the last level above the September contract low at $5.15 1/2. Resistance is currently near $5.27 or so for the immediate outlook.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Tuesday at $4.71. Wednesday's futures close and implied basis of 53 cents under the September board for HRW would indicate the index for Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.70.