By: NATHAN STUEDLE
GRAINS:
December corn closed up 10 1/4 cents and March corn was up 10 cents. November soybeans closed up 12 3/4 cents and January soybeans were up 12 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 4 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was up 1/4 cents.
For the week:
December corn closed up 12 cents and March corn was up 10 3/4 cents. November soybeans closed up 19 1/4 cents and January soybeans were up 19 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 5 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 2 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was up 5 3/4 cents.
The feature of Friday's session was the release of USDA's September WASDE and Crop Production reports, offering their estimates of how fall crops in the U.S. will turn out as well as a look into world grain supplies and usage. For the most part, I would classify the report as neutral, as in a way it didn't offer traders a whole lot that wasn't already expected or known. As is the case with many crop reports, there were bearish and bullish aspects that could be found within the fine details of Friday's numbers, some of which are discussed in more detail below. As for outside markets, it was mostly a quiet session with little news, but a weak consumer confidence reading from the University of Michigan weighed on investors' minds. Meanwhile, energy markets were higher into the weekend, but well off their daily highs with a mixed tone overall.
LIVESTOCK:
The live cattle contracts were back to trading lower as the market did not to see the support it needs to continue to drive prices higher. But with cash prices trending lower this week, and boxed beef prices seasonally softening as well, it's not bewildering to see the markets weaker again. It will be interesting to see if traders are able to keep the spot October contract above the market's 40-day moving average. If the market happens to close below that price point, more downward pressure could come.
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets for 2025. Beef production for 2025 is expected to decline by 100 million pounds as both fed and non-fed slaughter speeds are expected to continue to decline through the year's end. The projected quarterly steer prices were bullish for the market as steers in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $240 ($2.00 higher from last month), steers in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $244 (up $4.00), steers in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $246 (up $5.00 from last month) and steers in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $248 (up $5.00 from last month). Beef imports for 2025 increased by 90 million pounds as the demand for lean processing beef is still high, but beef exports for 2025 decreased by 40 million pounds amid thin supplies and historically high prices.
The feeder cattle complex was again trading lower as the market struggles to find stable support in the futures complex. Not helping matters either is the fact that fed cash cattle prices are trading lower and boxed beef prices are softer, which has put a lower waning attitude across all of the marketplace.
The lean hog complex struggled to find upward momentum, as the market ran past resistance on Thursday but didn't finding enough support in the market's sphere today to push any higher. One may point to the uptick in pork cutout values on today's midday report as a reason why the hog contracts should be higher, but traders seem to find the technical resistance as more of a limiting factor.