By: NATHAN STUEDLE
St. Joseph Post
GRAINS:
July corn closed down 5 cents per bushel at $4.43 1/2. July soybeans closed down 1 1/4 cents at $10.50 and August soybeans were down 1 cent at $10.46 1/4. July KC wheat closed down 11 3/4 cents at $5.16 1/2, July Chicago wheat was down 7 3/4 cents at $5.25 0/1 and July Minneapolis wheat was down 6 3/4 cents at $5.73 1/4.
For the week:
July corn finished down 6 1/4 cents for the week (a fifth straight lower weekly close). December corn dropped 6 1/2 cents for the week to settle at $4.35 1/2. July soybeans fell 1 3/4 cents last week to $10.50 and November beans closed up 5 cents for the week to $10.35 1/2. Chicago July wheat rose 3 1/4 cents to end the week at $5.25. Kansas City July ended up down a penny to settle at $5.16 1/2 and the fifth straight lower close. Minneapolis July wheat plunged 20 3/4 cents for the week, settling at $5,72 3/4.
Corn futures again slipped lower Friday, with even spot July fading from early morning strength. New-crop December futures continue to stair-step lower, falling to within 7 cents of the low. The rapid planting pace, which is projecting corn to be closing in on 80% planted by next week, is expected to be followed by beneficial heavy rains next week for much of the Corn Belt. While old-crop U.S. corn export demand has exceeded expectations and it appears USDA is still underestimating, the new-crop balance sheets changes all of that with favorable summer weather. In the meantime, the 2025 corn crop is off to a very favorable start.
Soybean futures in low volume and erratic trade finished with little change Friday. Soybean meal had a one-day bounce which became short-lived as meal fell. Soybean oil gapped lower Thursday night after the limit-down finish that day. That gap was later filled but bean oil finished lower. Bean oil has been under pressure on rumors that the new budget bill would have an RVO that is lower than industry groups had lobbied for. Also, the newly reduced China tariffs during the 90-day pause on tariffs would still allow Chinese used cooking oil to flow into the U.S. as a feedstock for biofuel. Also weighing on the soy market is the rising South American soy production estimates in both Brazil and Argentina.
The three-day wheat rally in Chicago and Kansas City ended with a bang on Friday with all three markets resuming the downtrend. The Wheat Quality Council's favorable estimate of the Kansas crop surely injected some weakness into the markets. The yield came out at 53 bushels per acre, 3 bpa higher than the USDA with a crop of 339 mb. However, the prevalence of stripe rust in Kansas in many areas is likely to compromise yields. In soft red country, fears of more wheat scab and vomitoxin are rising as more rain is headed that way. On a bullish note, both northern Europe and the China plains could use more rain. There is some relief forecast for next week in China, but the primary wheat areas have been devoid of moisture since March.
LIVESTOCK:
Following the last three days of weaker trading, the live cattle complex traded higher into Friday's closing bell. This could partly be because of stronger midday boxed beef prices, but then again, it could potentially be a signal from traders indicating that they've found some technical support in the marketplace. Anytime demand strengthens in the marketplace, it's a positive thing for the beef complex. But, before we'll be able to truthfully know how traders feel about their current position in the market, we'll need to see more positive technical signs develop. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any more trade develop. So far this week, Southern live cattle have traded anywhere from $218 to $220, which is $1.00 lower to $1.00 higher compared to last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $358, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average.
With the added support of the live cattle contracts' higher trade, the feeder cattle contracts also traded higher into Friday's close. So long as nothing unravels the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts will likely continue to follow in the same direction.
The lean hog complex is traded on a mixed basis into Friday's close, following the big push seen on Thursday. After breaking through the market's resistance at $100, traders now seem a little skeptical of their bold move and wish that consumer support was stronger today to back their recent technical advancement.
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