By: NATHAN STUEDLE
St. Joseph Post
GRAINS:
Corn futures were down 1 to up 3 cents with flat spread action as light buying returns as the weekend trade news of reduced tariffs for 90 days with China builds into the market pre-report. Outside markets had energies firmer and the dollar sharply higher, but were unable to hold the highs on the session. On the report at 11 a.m. CDT, trade is looking for old-crop carryout at 1.433 billion bushels (bb) and new crop at 2.02 bb. Ethanol margins should show little change with corn and unleaded both firmer. Warmer weather into mid-month should keep planting solidly ahead of the average pace with better rains the second week to boost emergence. Weekly crop progress should keep planting and emergence ahead the 5-year averages. Weekly export inspections remained solid at 1.224 million metric tons (mmt), keeping us at 129% of last year's pace. Basis should remain fairly sideways near term. Double-crop weather in Brazil continues to have few issues as we get deeper into the growing season. On the July chart, the 20-day moving average at $4.75 is resistance with support the fresh low at $4.42 1/4.
Soybean futures were 19 to 27 cents higher at the close with buying returning on expectations of renewed demand post-trade deal ahead of the report; Meal was 3 to 4 dollars higher. On the report, trade is looking for 368 million bushels (mb) of old-crop carryout and 375 mb on new. South American weather will remain conducive to harvest progress. Warmer weather should boost planting pace and emergence into mid-month, keeping us solidly ahead of average on planting and emergence on the weekly report. Basis will likely find a little better short-term action if crush can recover further. The daily wire saw 120,000 metric tons of old crop sold to Mexico with weekly inspections staying range-bound at 426,077 metric tons (mt) with year-to-date pace at 110%. On the July chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at $10.50, which we are well above at midday, with the lower Bollinger Band at $10.35 as support.
Wheat futures were 6 to 9 cents lower with trade remaining oversold at the lower end of the range and struggling with the sharply stronger dollar ahead of the WASDE report. The hard red wheat areas are expected to see OK short-term weather, along with near-term improvement in the Black Sea continuing. Weekly crop progress should show steady conditions and development slightly ahead of average, with spring wheat planting likely to remain solidly ahead of average. On the report, trade is looking for old-crop carryout at 847 mb, and new at 857 mb. Weekly export inspections were OK at 405,170 mt with year-to-date pace remaining at 115%. MATIF wheat is solidly higher to start the week. On the KC July chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at $5.44 with the next level of support the fresh low at $5.11 3/4.
LIVESTOCK:
The live cattle complex is thrilled to be trading even higher Monday as the announcement that Mexican cattle imports have again been halted because of the continued spread of New World screwworm (NWS) has sent the contracts notably higher. But what's potentially most interesting to note about the contracts is that it isn't the immediate/nearby contracts that are seeing the biggest gains -- it's the late spring/early summer 2026 contracts that saw the biggest daily push. Which is likely because traders recognize that supplies may be thin now, but they're going to be even tighter next year at this time. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states. Last week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $219 to $220, which is $1.00 to $2.00 higher than the prior week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $355, which is $6.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.
Upon being given the opportunity to trade the announcement that Mexican cattle imports will be halted for 15 days because of the continued spread of New World screwworm, traders didn't waste any time gapping the feeder cattle contracts higher at Monday's start. Even without the added market buzz surrounding the boarder closure, it's likely that the feeder cattle complex would have traded at least steady following last week's bullish gains. However, this breaking news has obviously grabbed the markets and traders' full attention. Monday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 2025. Beef production for 2025 was decreased as larger carcass weights are more than offsetting the decrease in production in terms of the number of head processed. Beef production for 2025 was decreased by 277 million pounds compared to a month ago. Compared to last month's estimates, the quarterly price projections were changed drastically upon seeing the recent price uptick in the fed cash cattle market. Steers in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $217 (up $13 from last month), steers in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $216 (up $10 from last month) and steers in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $220 (up $13 from last month). Beef imports were increased by 212 million pounds compared to last month's estimates (and yes, this report does take into account the ban on Mexican cattle imports currently), but beef exports were decreased by 22 million pounds.
Although, the cattle complex is seeing the greatest advancement, the lean hog complex traded higher as well. The market still isn't comfortable facing its resistance pressure around the $100 market in the spot June contract -- but even so, the market still is trading higher and has even more room to trade higher before that threshold becomes an issue. Monday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog and pork markets of 2025. Pork production for 2025 was decreased by 79 million pounds as processing speeds in the second half of the year aren't expected to be as aggressive. Hog prices also saw an increase from last month's projections as hogs in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $68 (up $5.00 from last month), hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $71 (up $6.00 from last month) and hogs in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $60 (up $4.00 from last month). Pork imports for 2025 were increased by 15 million pounds, and pork exports for 2025 were increased by 103 million pounds.
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