By MATT PIKE
St. Joseph Post
GENERAL COMMENTS:
May corn closed up 3 cents and December corn was up 2 1/2 cents. May soybeans closed up 2 3/4 cents and November soybeans were up 4 1/2 cents. May KC wheat closed up 5 cents, May Chicago wheat was up 5 3/4 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was up 2 1/2 cents.
The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.73 at 99.49. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 604.0 points at 39,971.0. June gold is up $111.50 at $3,351.90, May silver is up $0.60 at $32.90 and May copper is up $0.0490. May crude oil is up $1.25 at $62.58, June ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.0325, June RBOB gasoline is up $0.0209 and May natural gas is down $0.081.
CORN:
May corn closed up 3 cents on Wednesday to $4.84 1/4. New-crop December futures were up 2 1/2 cents to $4.66 3/4. May corn futures traded to a high of $4.87 on Wednesday but were unable to sustain the attempt higher. For now, resistance has formed in the upper $4.80s to low $4.90s, while support waits at the 50-day moving average near $4.77. Meanwhile, December futures posted a fifth positive session in the last six. Bullish traders are likely looking at the 2025 calendar year high for December corn of $4.79 3/4 as a medium-term target. Weekly ethanol production numbers from the EIA again reflected a seasonal slowdown in production with 1.012 million barrels of ethanol produced per day last week. Pace of production held at 3.7% higher than this time in 2024 for the corn marketing year thus far. In Brazil, agency DERAL reported in their weekly crop update on Tuesday that Parana's (second largest safrinha producing state) crop had stabilized in condition as a result of recent rainfall but did voice concerns over uneven precipitation for portions of the crop. Corn pollination was reported at 38% complete as of Monday, April 14. Further south in Argentina, it should be noted that the Rosario Grain Exchange, which had been among the lowest among corn production estimates for Argentina, revised their estimate 4 million metric tons (mmt) higher in their update last week to 48.5 mmt, much closer but still a touch below the USDA estimate of 50 mmt from the April WASDE. Argentine corn harvest is roughly a quarter complete.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $4.54. Wednesday's futures close and Tuesday's implied corn basis of 27 cents under the May board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.57.
SOYBEANS:
May soybeans closed up 2 3/4 cents on Wednesday to $10.38 3/4. Meanwhile new-crop soybeans were up 4 1/2 cents to $10.34 1/4. May soybeans started the day session strong, trading to a high of $10.45 3/4 before strength faded throughout the session. The market continues to struggle against the 200-day moving average at $10.41 1/4 which has been staunch resistance to soybean prices historically. To the downside, support at the 50-day moving average of $10.27 3/4 supported prices when tested on Wednesday.
Early optimistic trade reports surrounding negotiations with Japan and even the potential for attempted talks between the U.S. and China was the main source of bullish sentiment in the soybean market on Wednesday, although the news grew quickly stale as the session wore on. In fundamental news, NOPA released their March soybean crush figures on Tuesday, reporting that members crushed 194.55 million bushels (mb) of soybeans during the month of March. This was a strong recovery from a bit of a lag in February, a 9.4% increase in NOPA figures to be exact. Typically, NOPA members account for roughly 94% of total U.S. crush which would imply a total crush for March at just under 207 mb. Overall, this is a strong monthly number which should keep the industry on pace to hit the USDA's freshly increased goal of 2.420 billion bushels (bb) of soybean crush in 2024-25. The other number which garnered attention for Tuesday was the soybean stocks estimate, which was below expectations at 1.498 billion pounds. This aided soybean oil futures in a move higher both Tuesday and Wednesday, which in turn supported soybean futures as well.
The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.81. Wednesday's futures close and Tuesday's implied soybean basis of 55 cents under the May board, would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $9.84.
WHEAT:
May Kansas City futures traded 5 cents higher on Wednesday to $5.58. New-crop July futures were also up 3 3/4 cents to $5.72 1/4. Wheat markets were firmer for Wednesday across the three major futures contracts on what felt like primarily a technically driven bounce. Support at $5.50 for May KC futures again flexed its muscles in rejecting an attempt lower early on Wednesday. The market could not sustain a move back above $5.60 on Wednesday, and the 20-day moving average waits as a likely source of resistance at least in the near term at $5.65 1/4.
The market conditions for wheat remained largely unchanged on Wednesday. The softer U.S. Dollar Index likely can be pointed to as a source of strength behind Wednesday's positive price action. Otherwise, weather forecasts for the next two weeks remain on the wetter side across U.S. growing areas, an event which will likely be met with mixed feelings as hard red growers in the west will welcome the moisture while soft red producers in the east will likely be dealing with excess moisture through the month of April thus far.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Tuesday at $4.85, while the DTN National HRS Index was at $5.75. Wednesday's futures close and the implied Tuesday basis of 83 cents under the July for HRW, and 41 cents under the July for HRS, would indicate the indices for Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.86 and $5.74, respectively.