GRAINS:
May corn closed down 12 1/2 cents and July corn was down 11 3/4 cents. May soybeans closed down 4 cents and July soybeans were down 4 1/4 cents. May KC wheat closed down 13 1/4 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 17 1/4 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was down 13 cents.
After a whirlwind Wednesday which included widespread tariff confusion in the wake of President Trump's first cabinet meeting, President Trump clarified tariff intentions early Thursday by signaling the plan is still to go forward with a 25% tariff on both Canada and Mexico as well as an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. This led to a surge in the drifting U.S. Dollar Index furthering the pressure on collapsing wheat futures which again led the overall grain complex lower. Grain markets are also sorting through the 2025 USDA Ag Outlook Forum balance sheets for the 2025-26 crop year which included corn acreage expectations near the upper end of analyst expectations which along with a stout yield estimated pencils out to record corn production in 2025-26. Meanwhile, the soybean complex was stronger out of the gate Thursday, primarily to do with a moderately bullish 2025-26 outlook from the USDA which included the lowest acreage since 2020. However, as the session wore on and tariff concerns mounted, soybean futures faded lower as well.
LIVESTOCK:
The live cattle complex is again trading higher as the market seems encouraged by the morning's export sales report -- by the higher note of boxed beef prices and the potential that the cash cattle market could potentially trade steady to somewhat higher this week. The futures complex is in a critical position, hovering between both the market's 40-day moving average and the market's 100-day moving average, seeming to almost clearly say, "either market direction is possible, it's just going to depend on what surfaces fundamentally." Until the cash cattle market trades, we continue to watch earnestly. And once again, the feeder cattle market is sailed higher into Thursday's close, eager to see its contracts advanced.
At this point, the feeder complex will likely keep its upward momentum through the short term as advancement seems strong and well supported fundamentally by the market's feeder cattle demand in the countryside.
The political pressure of tariffs that are set to be enforced as early as next week is weighing heavily on the lean hog complex as US hog producers rely heavily on their ability to export pork to Mexico, specifically. And even though morning pork cutout values are higher here domestically today, the bearish news of how tariffs could affect current trade relationships is weighing heavily on the hog complex.
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