By: NATHAN STUEDLE
GRAINS:
December corn closed down 13 1/4 cents per bushel at $3.94 1/2 and March corn was down 13 cents at $4.12 1/4. November soybeans closed up 21 1/2 cents at $10.32 3/4 and January soybeans were up 21 1/4 cents at $10.50 3/4. September KC wheat closed down 8 1/4 cents at $5.10 3/4, September Chicago wheat was down 10 cents at $5.05 0/1 and September Minneapolis wheat was down 0.005 cents at $5.7725.
In atypical fashion from their usual conservative approach to revising yield and production early, USDA truly shocked most traders Tuesday. Granted there were private forecasts with a similar yield in the past few weeks, but no one saw the 7.8 bushel per acre increase from last month that the August report put forth. That shot the national production estimate to a record large 16.742 bb and sent corn to big losses.
LIVESTOCK:
The biggest news for the live cattle complex was undoubtedly the wild rally in midday boxed beef prices, which were not up mildly, but up a dramatic $8.50 for choice and up $5.39 for select. Thankfully, this positive fundamental development helped drive the live cattle contracts higher as all of the contracts traded more than $2.00 higher into Tuesday's closing bell. Still no news has developed in the cash cattle complex as no bids or asking prices have been posted.
Tuesday's WASDE report was rather bullish for the beef and cattle markets of 2025. Beef production for 2025 was decreased by 262 million pounds as both fed and non-fed cattle slaughter speeds have been reduced and carcass weights have decline slightly as well. But the major jaw-dropping data in the report was the quarterly steer price projections. Steer prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $238 (up $12.00 from last month's estimate), fourth quarter steer prices are expected to average $240 (up $11 from last month's estimate), steer prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $242 (up $15 from last month's estimate) and steer prices in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $243 (up $15 from last month's estimate). 2025 beef imports were reduced by 103 million pounds as tariff restrictions are expected to limit Brazilian beef imports. And 2025 beef exports were reduced by 46 million pounds as supplies remain tight domestically.
Keeping with stronger tone of Monday, the feeder cattle complex traded sharply higher into Tuesday's close. As seen Monday afternoon through the day, the CME feeder cattle index closed at $$341.04, up $3.83 from the previous day. Feeder cattle demand remains red hot in the countryside as buyers still have orders to fill and they know supplies aren't going to become numerous anytime soon.
With both pork cutout values and cash prices lower this morning, it comes as no real surprise that the lean hog complex traded lower for the bulk of the session. And with the spot October contract nearing resistance pressure (at $92.50), it's unlikely that without robust fundamental support, the contracts are going to trade higher and challenge that threshold.
Tuesday's WASDE report shared mostly positive news for the pork and hog markets of 2025. Pork production for 2025 was reduced by 557 million pounds as chain speeds have been and are expected to remain slower, and carcass weights are lighter as well. Luckily, the quarterly price projections saw an increase compared to last month's report as hog prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to average $77 (up $1.00 from last month's estimate), hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $67 (up $2.00 from last month's estimate), hog prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $64 (unchanged from last month's estimate) and hog prices in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to average $69 (up $1.00 from last month's report). Pork imports for 2025 were decreased by 9 million pounds, but pork exports for 2025 were increased by 9 million pounds.