By: NATHAN STUEDLE
GRAINS:
March corn closed down 5 3/4 cents and May corn was down 5 1/4 cents. January soybeans closed down 16 3/4 cents and March soybeans were down 16 cents. March KC wheat closed down 4 1/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 4 1/4 cents, March Minneapolis wheat was down 1/2 cents.
For the Week:
March corn closed down 4 cents and March corn was down 3 1/4 cents. January soybeans closed down 28 1/2 cents and March soybeans were down 29 1/4 cents. March KC wheat closed down 13 1/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 6 1/2 cents and March Minneapolis wheat was up 2 3/4 cents.
The mostly bearish price action in row-crop futures on Friday was not unique just to agricultural products, with heavy selling seen across macroeconomic markets as well from equities to energies. In row crops, soybeans again led the way lower as bears remain in full control of momentum currently; although the market is becoming a touch oversold from a technical standpoint. Corn and wheat markets were lower as well with corn lower on the soybean weakness and wheat markets initially holding stubbornly to short gains were ultimately unable to trade against the overarching bearish tone to close the week. Looking at outside markets, essentially the only major indicator which was higher for Friday was the U.S. Dollar Index, snapping a streak of two lower days primarily due to higher Treasury yields.
LIVESTOCK:
Following Thursday's rally, the live cattle complex once again traded lower as the market still doesn't believe it possesses enough support to challenge the market's resistance at its 100-day moving average. One could argue that the rally this week in the fed cash cattle market should be enough support to help traders make that move, but from a technical standpoint, traders still aren't confident about that leap. If traders were to challenge the resistance at the 100-day moving average, they'd need to believe that there's enough support in the marketplace to not only conquer that threshold, but also sustain a position above that mark as a move over the 100-day moving average would signal continued support, which is likely what traders are struggling with most at this point given that they obviously see that the market holds ample fundamental support this week, but don't know what's in store for the upcoming holiday weeks. So far this week Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $353 to $355, which is $10.00 to $12.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $230, which is $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.85 ($357.26) and select up $1.32 ($344.87) with a movement of 89 loads (61.32 loads of choice, 8.07 loads of select, 15.07 loads of trim and 4.20 loads of ground beef).
The feeder cattle complex doesn't seem to believe it has enough support either to sustain its position above the market's 100-day moving average, and it's currently trading below that threshold. Today's slight regression doesn't likely mean that traders believe the market needs to again trade vastly lower, but rather that they potentially jumped the gun on challenging the resistance at the market's 100-day moving average.
While the cattle contracts were trading mostly lower, the lean hog complex fought to keep its upward momentum. Today's support mostly came from traders' willingness to continue to advance the complex as pork cash prices and pork cutout values were lower.