By NATHAN STUEDLE
St. Joseph Post
GRAINS:
May corn closed up 4 cents and July corn was up 3 1/4 cents. May soybeans closed down 8 1/4 cents and July soybeans were down 9 cents. May KC wheat closed up 5 1/4 cents, May Chicago wheat was up 8 3/4 cents, May Minneapolis wheat was up 11 cents.
As alluded to in prior recaps, often the most difficult aspect of USDA releases to gauge is how prices will react to a given estimate. Meaning a bearish number on paper can often translate to a bullish price action given how the figure stacks up against trader expectations as well as price action in the weeks leading up to the report. Monday's Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports from the USDA were a perfect example of this phenomenon. On paper, one would have thought that the higher-than-expected corn acreage and slightly lower-than-expected soybean acreage reported Monday would have translated into corn being down and soybeans being up. In fact, the opposite was true on Monday as corn futures moved higher while soybeans dropped. This price action certainly implies that the Grain Stocks report garnered more attention from corn and soybean traders as compared to the Plantings estimates, which is the opposite of what some expected. Meanwhile, wheat futures gained a spark from a bit of a bullish surprise in the acreage report, ignoring on the other hand what was a sluggish Stocks report.
LIVESTOCK:
As the live cattle complex tip-toes into the new week, traders were again cautious not to be overly supportive of the contracts ahead of seeing what's going to develop fundamentally this week. Just last week the futures complex reached yet another new contract high in the spot June contract, so it's natural for traders to be cautious amid reaching new technical highs. All contracts finished in the red by the closing bell. It's likely that the cash cattle market won't trade until Friday again this week. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, somewhat smaller in Texas and lower in Nebraska/Colorado.
The feeder cattle complex is again trapped and feeling unable to take on the resistance pressure of its market, while the live cattle contracts traded lower. The market has seemed to somewhat plateau and unless something riveting happens in the live cattle complex, it's unlikely that the market will move boldly enough on its own to push through this barrier. A few of the far deferred contracts finished the day unchanged, the front months all slightly in the red at the closing bell.
The lean hog complex was trading lower at the day's start, but throughout the morning the market has grew stronger and the contracts traded fully higher into Monday's noon hour. It likely helped that the market had stronger pork cutout values this morning, which is largely stemming from the ham's $4.39 uptick. The strength faded in afternoon trade with only the April contract finishing in the green.