By MATT PIKE
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GENERAL COMMENTS:
September corn closed up 2 1/2 cents and December corn was up 1 1/4 cents. September soybeans closed down 13 3/4 cents and November soybeans were down 13 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 3 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 6 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 1/4 cents.
The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.47 at 99.36. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 26.0 points at 44,842.0. August gold is down $30.60 at $3,293.40, September silver is down $0.72 at $37.57 and September copper is down $1.0085. September crude oil is up $0.80 at $70.01, September ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0383, September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0257 and September natural gas is down $0.098.
CORN:
September corn futures closed up 2 1/2 cents on Wednesday to $3.91 3/4. December futures were up 1 1/4 cents to $4.12 1/4. The corn market enjoyed a day of modest short-covering ahead of month end, with no significantly bullish news spurring on buyers, with the approach to contract lows likely triggering some buy orders along the way.
In Wednesday morning's Petroleum Status report, the EIA pegged ethanol production in the U.S. for last week at 1.096 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 18,000 bpd from the previous week, but slightly lower than the same week in 2024. As of Wednesday's report, five weeks and change remain in the corn marketing year. In South American news, Brazil's second corn crop is about two-thirds harvested, while Argentina's harvest was 86% complete as of last week, according to the International Grains Council. U.S. corn export offers remain very competitive on the world stage.
In corn technicals, December futures found buying support Wednesday after trading to within 2 cents of the contract low Tuesday. For now, the unchanged fundamental outlook, featuring many private estimates for a 2025 corn yield well above trend, leaves technical support as really the only incentive for buyers in the marketplace. The bullish target in the near to medium term is the 20-day moving average near $4.20. A break in December futures below support near $4.10 would set $4.00 as the immediate bearish target.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.74. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 15 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $3.76.
SOYBEANS:
September soybeans dropped another 13 3/4 cents to $9.75 3/4 on Wednesday, while November futures were also under heavy pressure, falling 13 3/4 cents to $9.95 3/4. November soybeans fell for the seventh time in the past eight sessions, a route which has added up to over 35 cents of lost value on the contract. It sounds like a broken record, but for now traders are struggling to look beyond the weather with the 15-day outlook now taking us to mid-August with few perceived issues for soybean pod filling. However, storms are always a threat this time of year and will need to be monitored as events arise.
A disappointing feature of the soybean selloff through the last month has been the breakaway from soybean oil in price action. Soybean oil futures continue to grind to the highest prices seen since 2023, but the bullish influence over the whole soybean market has drastically faded over the past month as traders for now don't see the large increase in soybean crush potential through 2025-26 as being enough to offset potentially record yields and shaky export demand if China remains absent.
In soybean technicals, it's safe to say November soybeans posted their most bearish close in months on Wednesday, closing below $10.00 for the first time since April 9, which came immediately following the April 2 reciprocal tariff announcement. If the market can't gain a footing back above $10.00 support, the early April low in the mid $9.70s seems to be the likely bearish target. It will be important to see if soybeans can find any bargain buyers again at this level as was the case in mid-July.
The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.54. Wednesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 56 cents under the November board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $9.40.
WHEAT:
September Kansas City futures rose 3 1/2 cents on Wednesday to $5.22. Meanwhile, Chicago and Minneapolis futures were lower, with the latter trading to a sixth consecutive lower session and 12 lower out of the past 14.
In their weekly report, the International Grains Council reported Russian wheat harvest at 37% complete, with production thus far roughly 22% lower than in 2024, although yields are expected to improve as harvest moves northward. Meanwhile, a strong recovery in EU crops continues to weigh on world prices, with futures traders seeing little need to price any supply risks into markets.
In wheat technicals, September KC futures again came within a penny of contract lows early Wednesday but mounted a reversal to reclaim support at $5.20 which has been impressive in holding hard red prices through July. The bullish objective is the 20-day moving average at $5.26 1/2 which has been equally stubborn in keeping prices down since mid-June. $5.00 remains the ultimate bearish target on a sustained break below aforementioned $5.20 support.