By MATT PIKE
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September corn closed up 5 1/2 cents and December corn was up 6 1/2 cents. August soybeans closed up 9 3/4 cents and November soybeans were up 5 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed up 3 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 4 1/2 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was up 3 1/2 cents.
The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.10 at 100.95. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 141.0 points at 53,231.0. August gold is down $19.00 at $4,148.50, September silver is down $1.13 at $61.20 and September copper is down $0.0225. August crude oil is up $1.96 at $70.51, August ultra-low sulfur diesel is up $0.0068, August RBOB gasoline is down $0.050 and August natural gas is up $0.017.
CORN:
September corn futures traded 5 1/2 cents higher on Tuesday, closing at $4.43 3/4. December futures were up 6 1/2 cents to $4.64 1/4. Corn futures continued to ride a wave of bullish momentum which has been gaining since last week's USDA reports. Traders clearly had become uncomfortable with positioning around contract lows in futures and saw the need for at least some degree of risk in prices considering the importance of the next few weeks of weather. From a technical standpoint, the 50-day to 100-day moving averages ($4.69 to $4.73) stand as a bullish target in the short-term. Support will be the 20-day moving average ($4.42 3/4) and may be tested again in coming days after Monday's breakout.
In Monday's Crop Progress report (released after the close), USDA reported 16% of the U.S. corn crop is silking, slightly ahead of normal for early July. Meanwhile, crop ratings held steady with 67% of the crop said to be in good-to-excellent condition. This is 7 points lower than in early July of 2025. Looking at the states, top-producing Iowa remains highly rated at 78% good to excellent. Meanwhile, Texas led the states in declines, gaining 10 points to poor-to-very-poor ratings after a dry and hot past week. Across the U.S. Corn Belt, temperatures are expected to trend above average in the 6- to 10-day window. Meanwhile, the latter part of this week is calling for rainfall opportunities across the heart of the Corn Belt before appearing more sporadic next week. Expect daily and weekly forecasts to be the primary driver of prices over the next few weeks. In U.S. demand news, the Census Bureau on Tuesday reported 285.5 million bushels (mb) of corn were exported in May, just beating May of 2025 for the second strongest May on record behind 2021. It is possible USDA will increase their export forecast in Friday's WASDE.
In world corn news, harvest in Brazil progresses but at a slightly slower than normal pace for early July. IMEA reports top-producing state Mato Grosso is 44% complete as of last week. While DERAL in Parana (second-largest producing state) reports harvest is 10% complete. In Europe, corn futures turned lower on Tuesday (likely on profit-taking) after rising to almost three year highs for most active futures on Monday amid ongoing heat and dryness and rapidly declining crop ratings.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Monday at $4.10. Tuesday's futures close and Monday's national average corn basis of 28 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Tuesday afternoon to be near $4.16.
SOYBEANS:
August soybean futures traded 9 3/4 cents higher on Tuesday to $11.93 3/4. New-crop November futures were up 5 1/2 cents to $11.97 3/4. Despite a shaky start to the session, soybean futures recovered to trade higher for a fifth straight session, and once again knocking on the door of the $12.00 mark on both old-and new-crop contracts. USDA did not confirm any reportable sales (over 100,000 metric tons in one day, or over 200,000 in one week) to China on Tuesday morning, yet momentum has rapidly shifted bullish once again on optimism for increased demand and what remains of weather uncertainty in producing the 2026 U.S. crop, with little room for error if China truly purchases 900 million bushels (mb) in 2026-27. From a technical standpoint, the aforementioned $12.00 mark is the bullish target for August futures, followed by May highs north of $12.20.
In Monday's Crop Progress report, USDA said 9% of U.S. soybeans are already setting pods (predominantly in the south), which is ahead of normal for early July. Meanwhile, 64% of the crop is rated in good-to-excellent condition, down a point from last week and down 2 points from early July in 2025. State-by-state results were mixed, with top-producing Illinois seeing weekly improvement in good-to-excellent ratings by 3 points. Iowa and Minnesota (numbers 2 and 3, respectively) remain over 70% good-to-excellent overall. North Dakota led weekly declines along with Michigan, both seeing 10-point drops in good-to-excellent scores. Despite no reported sales of bulk soybeans to China, USDA did report 105,000 metric tons of soybean meal to Colombia. Meal futures were up for a fifth straight session as well on Tuesday.
World soybean news is in a quiet time of year with harvest wrapping up in Argentina and long concluded and in the record books for Brazil in 2026. Combining the big three (U.S., Brazil, and Argentina) leaves few concerns for near-term supplies. However, the picture can still rapidly change into late 2026 should the U.S. or South America encounter production challenges, as demand remains very strong globally. As a cautionary note, U.S. soybean futures may be tethered to Brazilian values moving forward as any rally threatens to outpace export market competition. This is something to be mindful of moving forward.
The DTN National Soybean Index finished Monday at $11.37. Tuesday's futures close and Monday's national average soybean basis of 47 cents under the August board would indicate the index on Tuesday afternoon to be near $11.47.
WHEAT:
September Kansas City futures rose 3 cents on Tuesday, closing at $6.52 3/4. Chicago and Minneapolis markets were also higher. KC futures notched a fifth straight session higher, still fueled by last week's surprise additional cut to 2026 U.S. wheat acreage. It appears likely that 2026-27 U.S. wheat stocks will fall in USDA's updated forecast on Friday. From a technical standpoint, September KC futures rallied back above the 100-day moving average ($6.50 1/4), a level which had been supportive through most of 2026 before the brief break lower in late June. The 20-day moving average ($6.38) is immediate support for futures.
In Monday's Crop Progress report, USDA reported that 59% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is harvested, still well above normal pace for early July for what is expected to be a historically small crop. For spring wheat, 54% of the crop is headed, even with the average for early July. Meanwhile, 57% of the crop is rated good to excellent, down 2 points from last week but still 7 points ahead of the same point in early July 2025. Top-producing North Dakota saw good-to-excellent ratings fall 7 points while poor-to-very-poor jumped 2 points. Montana led the week in improvements, gaining 10 points to good-to-excellent ratings while poor-to-very-poor ratings dropped 6 points.
In world wheat news, Paris milling futures traded higher for a second straight session to start the week, after FranceAgriMer cut good-to-excellent ratings by 6 points in last week's update (though the crop remains decently rated overall at 68% good to excellent). Russian export values continue to be a source of pressure to world competition with FOB prices down roughly 35 cents per bushel through the past month.
The DTN National HRW Index finished Monday at $5.90, while the DTN National HRS Index was $5.78. Tuesday's futures close and Monday's national average soybean basis of 60 cents under the September board for HRW, and 52 cents under the September board for HRS, would indicate the indices for Tuesday afternoon to be near $5.93 and $5.81, respectively.