By: NATHAN STUEDLE
GRAINS:
December corn closed down 11 1/4 cents and March corn was down 11 1/2 cents. January soybeans closed down 22 1/2 cents and March soybeans were down 20 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 10 1/2 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 8 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 5 cents.
For the Week:
December corn closed up 3 cents and March corn was up 2 cents. January soybeans closed up 7 1/2 cents and March soybeans were up 10 1/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 1/2 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was up 6 3/4 cents.
Row-crop futures moved sharply lower Friday following the release of new USDA data including Crop Production and WASDE reports, along with a listing of all reportable flash sales which went unreported due to the government shutdown through October and early November. I would characterize Friday's reports as mixed overall, with some undeniably bearish estimates but plenty of silver linings to be found if looked for and discussed in further detail below. Outside markets to close the week were choppy with crude oil turning higher following Ukrainian attacks on Russian ports and the seizure of a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, where over a third of world crude shipments are routed. Stock indices were mixed with tech-focused buying pushing the NASDAQ and S&P500 higher while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped.
LIVESTOCK:
The live cattle contracts traded slightly higher into Friday's closing bell, despite the fact that the day's fundamentals are lacking a bit with no new cash cattle trade having developed, and what has developed has been lower than last week's weighted average, and boxed beef prices are lower again. So far this week, Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $228, which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle have traded for mostly $351, which is $8.00 lower than last week's weighted average. And while it's looking like the bulk of this week's trade is done with, some more clean up trade isn't out of the question.
Friday's WASDE report shared less than supportive news for the cattle and beef markets of 2025 and 2026. Beef production for 2025 fell by 70 million pounds from the last report in September, as fed cattle slaughter speeds have declined. The same similar trend is also noted for 2026 beef production as now the year is expected to yield 25,490 million pounds, which is down 100 million pounds from September's report. The biggest expected reason for the decline in slaughter speeds for 2026 is because fed cattle processing is expected to remain light, and with cattle spending more time on feed, marketings will be slower for at least the first half of the year. Quarterly steer prices were also disappointing as steers in the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to average $234 (down $10.00), steers in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $242 (down $5.00) and steers in the second quarter are expected to average $248 (down $3.00). Beef imports for 2025 remained unchanged, but exports for the year fell by 10 million pounds.
Although, the feeder cattle complex was trading fully lower earlier this morning, it rebounded and ended trading higher alongside the live cattle contracts. As long as the live cattle contracts continue to trade higher, the feeder cattle market will likely follow in its shadow.
The lean hog complex also found a little technical support, which could be trader moral given that the cattle contracts were trading higher too, or it could partly be because consumer demand is showing more interest today as the midday pork cutout is up $4.68. It's unlikely that any more cash hog trade is going to develop throughout the day.