USDA has lowered its beef production forecasts for both this year and next as cattle slaughter remains historically low. The Economic Research Service now projects 2026 beef production at about 24.9 billion pounds, down 90 million pounds from its August estimate. The 2027 forecast was reduced by another 145 million pounds.

Cattle slaughter during the first eight months of this year averaged roughly 8,000 fewer head per weekday than during the same period last year. USDA expects fewer cattle to enter feedlots late this year and early next year, reducing marketings during the second half of 2027. Higher feed costs also are expected to limit carcass weights. Despite tight cattle supplies, USDA lowered its cattle price outlook, citing weaker packer demand and reduced processing capacity.

By: NATHAN STUEDLEUSDA has lowered its beef production forecasts for both this year and next as cattle slaughter remains historically low. The Economic Research Service now projects 2026 beef production at about 24.9 billion pounds, down 90 million pounds from its August estimate. The 2027 forecast was reduced by another 145 million pounds.Cattle slaughter during the first eight months of this year averaged roughly 8,000 fewer head per weekday than during the same period last year. USDA expects fewer cattle to enter feedlots late this year and early next year, reducing marketings during the second half of 2027. Higher feed costs also are expected to limit carcass weights. Despite tight cattle supplies, USDA lowered its cattle price outlook, citing weaker packer demand and reduced processing capacity.

USDA cuts beef production forecast