By: NATHAN STUEDLE
GRAINS:
September corn closed up 1 1/4 cents and December corn was up 1 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 6 cents and November soybeans were down 5 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 2 1/4 cents.
Row-crop prices once again wavered Tuesday as traders are very indecisive at this point of where to send prices next. Long-term support immediately below current prices perhaps signals to some traders they have adequately priced in their bearish outlook for the time being. Outside markets were mixed following the June Consumer Price Index report which showed a slight uptick in inflation as compared to May but was also in line with expectations at 2.7%, year-over-year. Still, this widens the gap between the current rate and the Fed's target rate of 2%, adding to unlikeliness of a cut to interest rates in the Fed meeting toward the end of this month. The current CME FedWatch tool shows a 97.4% chance the target range of 4.25-4.50% is held by the FOMC at that meeting. This will most likely turn up the tension between the Trump administration and Fed Chair Jerome Powell again, adding another layer of uncertainty and anxiety to the marketplace.
LIVESTOCK:
Live cattle futures have rallied higher Tuesday morning despite an uncertain start in the early minutes of trade. Active triple-digit gains were seen in all live cattle futures with spot month August futures leading the market higher. Although, the August contract is technically leading the market higher, the focus on October and December contracts was the main driver of the renewed market support. Any pressure seen on Monday in the complex seems to have at least temporarily been eased, with traders looking for continued support in both beef values and cash cattle trade at the end of the week. Cash cattle markets remain very slow to start the week.
Feeder cattle complex rallied higher Tuesday with all contracts through March 2026 trading higher as strong underlying support helped move the feeder cattle price above the $320 per cwt levels. The ability to sustain prices at or above this level will not only likely spark additional underlying futures market support but could create additional fundamental support through the entire complex over the near future.
Lean hog futures were sluggish Tuesday with most, if not all, of the attention being diverted to the cattle complex through morning trade. July futures remain positive, but the underlying concerns surrounding potential tariff levels and unknowns of how this will impact long-term trade is putting pressure on fall and winter contract price levels. October futures lead the market lower for nearby trade activity with a $1 per cwt loss at midday. This constitutes not only falling market pressure but widens the spread between front month futures and deferred prices. Currently there remains a $20 per cwt discount in the October contracts, and $28 per cwt discount to December futures. This market difference is accounting for the uncertainty in global pork demand met by U.S. production, and not any sizable shift in overall hog supplies over the upcoming months.
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