By: NATHAN STUEDLE
USDA delivered a bearish surprise for the corn market Friday, sharply increasing its estimate of the 2026 U.S. corn yield and pushing projected production back above 16 billion bushels.
In the October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA raised the national corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre, up 2.7 bushels from September’s 178.5-bushel estimate. That was well above the average pre-report trade expectation of roughly 177.6 bushels per acre. Corn production is now forecast at 16.034 billion bushels, up from 15.8 billion last month.
The larger crop helped push projected 2026-27 U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.849 billion bushels, an increase of 282 million bushels from September’s 1.567 billion. USDA also raised feed and residual use by 50 million bushels, increased projected corn use for ethanol by 50 million and boosted exports by 25 million bushels, but the stronger demand estimates were not enough to offset the larger supply. USDA lowered its projected average farm price for corn by 10 cents to $4.70 per bushel.
The corn numbers were especially notable because traders had generally expected USDA to reduce its yield estimate. The October figure came in near the upper end of analysts’ expectations and immediately shifted attention toward the size of the crop still coming out of fields across the Corn Belt.
Soybean numbers were less dramatic. USDA raised the national soybean yield from 52.8 to 53.1 bushels per acre and increased production to 4.562 billion bushels, compared with 4.535 billion in September. U.S. soybean ending stocks were increased only slightly, from 310 million to 315 million bushels. USDA left the projected season-average soybean price unchanged at $12 per bushel.
On the world balance sheet, USDA left Brazil’s new-crop soybean production forecast at 186 million metric tons and Argentina at 50 million tons. Global soybean ending stocks were projected at 124.28 million metric tons, little changed from September.
Wheat supplies also moved higher. USDA estimated U.S. wheat production at 1.534 billion bushels and raised projected domestic ending stocks from 717 million to 740 million bushels. Wheat exports were lowered by 25 million bushels to 750 million, while the projected farm price was cut 10 cents to $6.30 per bushel.