By: NATHAN STUEDLE
GRAINS:
September corn closed up 4 3/4 cents and December corn was up 5 3/4 cents. September soybeans closed up 8 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 9 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 10 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 9 3/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was up 7 cents.
Ag markets were able to build off the late-session momentum seen Wednesday to trade higher Thursday in what was a widespread recovery session from a very bearish start to the week. Time will have to tell whether this is the start of a sustained bottoming attempt or simply another quick round of short-covering; but historical seasonality would suggest August or September is typically where corn and soy markets tend to look for a bottom. Traders will look to USDA to add to the recent yield forecast debate next Tuesday. In outside markets, crude oil futures are quickly back trading among the lowest prices seen since late June after five consecutive sessions lower, heading for a sixth on Thursday. Equities began Thursday higher before turning sharply lower by late morning as investors express uncertainty as the latest round of reciprocal tariffs officially go into effect Thursday following months of deals and deadline extensions.
LIVESTOCK:
With the unseasonal rally in boxed beef prices, the live cattle complex continues to challenge the market's resistance threshold, which also happens to be its all-time market high, as the cattle complex's strong fundamental footing of limited supplies amid unfathomable demand continues to lend support beyond anyone's wildest belief. It will be especially interesting to see what develops this week in the fed cash cattle market as though packers were able to buy some supply last week and commit those cattle to the nearby delivery option, they still need to stay engaged enough in the market to avoid being short bought in the weeks ahead and feedlot managers haven't been easy for packers to deal with in recent weeks either. Asking prices are firm in the South at $238 to $240, but are still not established in the North.
The feeder cattle complex again pushed into the closing bell fully and significantly higher. The slight pullback in the August contract likely has more to do with the fact that traders are moving their positions from the August contract into the currently most actively traded September contract, and not because of any fundamental rhyme or reason, as demand is just robust in the countryside; there's no other way to describe it.
One would think that on a day when midday pork cutout values are up over $4.00, the lean hog market would be rejoicing. With traders battling resistance pressure and with the morning's export sales report weaker, the market traded lower into the closing bell on Thursday. More than anything, it seems as though the market's resistance pressure is affecting traders most. Although they thought they had enough support to drive the complex higher earlier this week, the market's fundamentals haven't been as collectively supportive as initially hoped for.