By MATT PIKE
St. Joseph Post
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GENERAL COMMENTS:
July corn closed up 4 cents and December corn was up 6 1/4 cents. July soybeans closed up 3/4 cents and November soybeans were up 1 1/2 cents. July KC wheat closed up 6 1/4 cents, July Chicago wheat was up 4 cents, July MIAX Minneapolis wheat was up 12 1/4 cents.
The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.62 at 100.47. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 106.0 points at 42,842.0. June gold is up $46.10 at $3,233.30, July silver is up $0.13 at $32.49 and July copper is up $0.0660. July crude oil is up $0.03 at $62.0, July ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0126, July RBOB gasoline is down $0.0115 and June natural gas is down $0.213.
CORN:
July corn futures closed up 4 cents to $4.47 1/2, while new-crop December futures were up 6 1/4 cents to $4.41 3/4. July futures posted a third session higher out of the past four, while new-crop prices were able to snap a four-day losing streak Monday following last week's USDA estimate of a record-large corn crop coming in 2025.
As of May 13, noncommercial corn traders now hold just 18,106 contracts of length in corn futures, having sold over 450,000 contracts (2.25 bb) of their mid-February length. The big question moving forward is will we see speculators decide to flip their books and become short holders in the corn market? The weather likely holds the answer to this riddle, with little in that vein thus far through the spring to inspire much in the way of fresh buying among noncommercial traders. However, the longer-term outlook may still inspire some caution among bearish traders as to adding to their short positions. For one, last week's drought monitor still shows just under a quarter of the nation's corn area is in drought, with lingering issues primarily in the Western Corn Belt. Rains through April and May alleviated some issues but from a soil moisture standpoint a drop off in precipitation as the growing season kicks off may have negative yield consequences in those drought-stricken areas. NOAA's three-month outlook for June through August released last week illustrates this point further with calls for below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures for the western corn growing states.
In Monday's Export Inspections update, USDA reported 67.7 million bushels (mb) of corn was federally inspected for export for the week ended May 15. This keeps the current year inspections at an impressive 29% lead above the 2023-24 marketing year. As of last Monday's WASDE report, the USDA is estimating 2.6 billion bushels (bb) of corn exports in 2024-25 which would represent a 13% increase in shipments if true.
In corn technicals, for the last week of trade old-crop July futures have found support in the low $4.40s, specifically near $4.42 to $4.43 for now. The low for the move sits at $4.36 1/2 which was set last Tuesday. Price bias will largely be weather driven, but from a technical viewpoint the 50-day moving average near $4.70 is a fair medium-term bullish target for traders who may view this dip as a buying opportunity, which would also be in line with the downtrend channel which has emerged since late February. For a downside target, the mid-$4.30s is still a possibility as would a slip in price further toward $4.20 if speculators remain on their selling streak.
The DTN National Corn Index finished Friday at $4.17. Monday's futures close and implied corn basis of 27 cents under the July board would indicate the index on Monday afternoon to be near $4.21.
SOYBEANS:
July soybean futures traded 3/4 of a cent higher on Monday to close at $10.50 3/4. Meanwhile, new-crop November prices were up 1 1/2 cents to $10.37.
The soybean market last week quickly lost ground made following a mostly supportive WASDE report released on May 12. Rumors the EPA had submitted proposed blending mandates for biofuels at a lower level than industry recommendations spurred a sharp correction in soybean oil prices in combination with technically driven selling as well which in turn pressured soybean futures.
In Friday's Commitments of Traders report, CFTC said noncommercial soybean traders held 65,178 contracts as of May 13, the most bullish bet on soybean price for speculators since November 2023, although Wednesday's profit-taking session likely reduced this position which will be reflected in the next CFTC report this coming Friday.
Monday's Export Inspections from USDA reported 8 mb of soybeans inspected for shipment in the week ended May 15, among the lowest of the marketing year but also not too surprising given the time of year/seasonal tendencies of soy exports. Following last Monday's revision higher in soybean exports by the USDA to 1.850 bb, the government is now expecting a 9% increase in soybean exports from 2023-24. The current inspection pace is 11% ahead of last marketing year.
In soybean technicals for Monday, July soybeans have tested the 100-day moving average (currently near $10.47 1/2) in each of the past three sessions, with support holding each time. A break below this level would set the 50-day moving average as the immediate target just below $10.40. Immediate resistance to old-crop soy prices is near $10.60, with last week's high close of $10.77 3/4 as the clear medium-term bullish target.
The DTN National Soybean Index finished Friday at $9.99. Monday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 51 cents under the July board would indicate the index on Monday afternoon to be near $10.00.
WHEAT:
July Kansas City wheat futures closed up 6 1/4 cents on Monday to 5.22 3/4. July Chicago and MIAX Minneapolis spring wheat futures were also higher on Monday with the latter leading the way with a 12 1/4 cent move.
Wheat futures were able to shrug off Friday's move lower which had snapped a three-day winning streak in Kansas City prices. Last week's Wheat Tour across Kansas yielded some interesting results, with participants estimating a weighted average yield for the region at 53 bushels per acre (bpa), higher than USDA estimated for Kansas in the Crop Production report released on May 12. However, the tour also estimated a lesser total production for Kansas wheat at 338.5 mb as compared to 345 mb estimated by USDA. Either estimate would mark a steep improvement from 2024's 307.5 mb of production for the nation's top-producing wheat state. More information on last week's tour can be read in DTN Crops Editor Jason Jenkin's daily reports which followed the scouting on daily basis last week. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2025/05/15/2025-winter-wheat-tour-final-average
For U.S. wheat growing conditions, persistent drought remains across a large portion of the central to Northern Plains. Last Thursday's drought monitor estimated 23% of U.S. winter wheat area was in an area experiencing drought. The two-week precipitation outlook shows coverage for much of this area. The USDA will update winter wheat conditions and progress in Monday afternoon's Crop Progress report, due out at 3 p.m. CDT.
As of last Tuesday, May 13, the combined short position across Chicago, KC, and Minneapolis wheat contracts had grown to over 207,000 contracts, now far and away a record short position although price action over the latter part of last week indicates traders likely took some profits on some of these positions; $5.30 is the immediate price resistance for July KC futures, with a medium-term price target near $5.50 begin realistic for wheat bulls. To the downside, a retest of $5.00 is the clear bearish target for July KC futures.